bitcoin ASIC mining hardware price bubble? - page 2.

Bitcoinorama

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Quote from: erk on August 13, 2013, 04:17:53 PM

Quote from: gingernuts on August 13, 2013, 03:46:02 PM

Would you care to share the maths behind that statement?

The back of my napkin tells me that @ 40MH/W FPGA's are good to ~200M difficulty, ASIC Miner chips @ ~133MH/W are good until 666M difficulty - all assuming a $0.22/kWh power cost.

IMHO the difficulty can't keep rising at the current rate because it is a hell of a lot easier and therefore cheaper to go from 30TH/s to 60TH/s than from 400TH/s to 800TH/s. The next doubling to 1.6PH/s will be even more costly, unless the people building the next generation of ASICs are basically giving them away, and as the process technology shrinks down to the bleeding edge 20nm processes, the cost per wafer will actually increase...

see http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ As you can see from the red line on the graph, the latest difficulty hike was much larger than predicted!

Quote from: kolesozw on August 13, 2013, 03:48:19 PM

Quote from: superduh on August 13, 2013, 03:43:15 PM

Bitcoin used to buy ASICS - RISKY (as most will never get ROI on their bitcoins)
USD to Asics - less risky (with btc price going up this can attain ROI with a higher chance -however, you could be able to buy more bitcoins with the cash you used to buy the asics)

risk risk risk

Many got ROI very quickly after receiving preordered unit. The key is to have the device soon, but this preorder game is like gambling

I was chatting to someone yesterday that just received his batch #3 Avalon, which cost about 100BTC all up, and was looking at 2-3mnths ROI, with today's diff hike, he will not achieve ROI unless BTC/USD price goes up. I have a few BFL devices on back order from April/May, and they will probably not cover their power costs by the time they arrive.

What's BTC/USD got to do with recovering an item valued in Bitcoins?

erk

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Quote from: gingernuts on August 13, 2013, 03:46:02 PM

Would you care to share the maths behind that statement?

The back of my napkin tells me that @ 40MH/W FPGA's are good to ~200M difficulty, ASIC Miner chips @ ~133MH/W are good until 666M difficulty - all assuming a $0.22/kWh power cost.

IMHO the difficulty can't keep rising at the current rate because it is a hell of a lot easier and therefore cheaper to go from 30TH/s to 60TH/s than from 400TH/s to 800TH/s. The next doubling to 1.6PH/s will be even more costly, unless the people building the next generation of ASICs are basically giving them away, and as the process technology shrinks down to the bleeding edge 20nm processes, the cost per wafer will actually increase...

see http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ As you can see from the red line on the graph, the latest difficulty hike was much larger than predicted!

Quote from: kolesozw on August 13, 2013, 03:48:19 PM

Quote from: superduh on August 13, 2013, 03:43:15 PM

Bitcoin used to buy ASICS - RISKY (as most will never get ROI on their bitcoins)
USD to Asics - less risky (with btc price going up this can attain ROI with a higher chance -however, you could be able to buy more bitcoins with the cash you used to buy the asics)

risk risk risk

Many got ROI very quickly after receiving preordered unit. The key is to have the device soon, but this preorder game is like gambling

I was chatting to someone yesterday that just received his batch #3 Avalon, which cost about 100BTC all up, and was looking at 2-3mnths ROI, with today's diff hike, he will not achieve ROI unless BTC/USD price goes up. I have a few BFL devices on back order from April/May, and they will probably not cover their power costs by the time they arrive.

erk

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Quote from: co5hike on August 13, 2013, 03:39:44 PM

Quote from: erk on August 13, 2013, 03:25:27 PM

Miners need to be lower than 1watt per GH/s to still be viable. BFL, Avalon, and ASICminer are not.

We are not in this phase of game. I expect the power consuption will play difference from 2nd half of next year

I actually typo'd that, I meant 3watts per GH/s no longer being viable. ie KNCminer is still viable on paper.

kolesozw

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Quote from: superduh on August 13, 2013, 03:43:15 PM

Bitcoin used to buy ASICS - RISKY (as most will never get ROI on their bitcoins)
USD to Asics - less risky (with btc price going up this can attain ROI with a higher chance -however, you could be able to buy more bitcoins with the cash you used to buy the asics)

risk risk risk

Many got ROI very quickly after receiving preordered unit. The key is to have the device soon, but this preorder game is like gambling

gingernuts

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Quote from: erk on August 13, 2013, 03:25:27 PM

Quote from: kendog77 on August 13, 2013, 01:54:50 PM

Quote from: candoo on August 12, 2013, 02:26:35 PM

Do your homework. Difficulty goes from 37 to ~47..

Do your homework, candoo. You have a lot of learn, young one.

The latest difficulty adjusted to 50.8 m.

Quite so, and what people fail to grasp is, at that growth rate, anyone who places an ASIC order for above $20 per GH/s will no longer get a positive ROI. That means all unshipped BFL orders are now worthless. Same with Avalon and it's derivatives. Those units will no longer cover their monthly power costs in many areas.

This also means that the price of BTC/USD has to rise or miners will have to switch off their gear.

Miners need to be lower than 1watt per GH/s to still be viable. BFL, Avalon, and ASICminer are not.

Would you care to share the maths behind that statement?

The back of my napkin tells me that @ 40MH/W FPGA's are good to ~200M difficulty, ASIC Miner chips @ ~133MH/W are good until 666M difficulty - all assuming a $0.22/kWh power cost.

IMHO the difficulty can't keep rising at the current rate because it is a hell of a lot easier and therefore cheaper to go from 30TH/s to 60TH/s than from 400TH/s to 800TH/s. The next doubling to 1.6PH/s will be even more costly, unless the people building the next generation of ASICs are basically giving them away, and as the process technology shrinks down to the bleeding edge 20nm processes, the cost per wafer will actually increase...

superduh

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Bitcoin used to buy ASICS - RISKY (as most will never get ROI on their bitcoins)
USD to Asics - less risky (with btc price going up this can attain ROI with a higher chance -however, you could be able to buy more bitcoins with the cash you used to buy the asics)

risk risk risk

co5hike

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Quote from: erk on August 13, 2013, 03:25:27 PM

Miners need to be lower than 1watt per GH/s to still be viable. BFL, Avalon, and ASICminer are not.

We are not in this phase of game. I expect the power consuption will play difference from 2nd half of next year

erk

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Activity: 826

Merit: 500

Quote from: kendog77 on August 13, 2013, 01:54:50 PM

Quote from: candoo on August 12, 2013, 02:26:35 PM

Do your homework. Difficulty goes from 37 to ~47..

Do your homework, candoo. You have a lot of learn, young one.

The latest difficulty adjusted to 50.8 m.

Quite so, and what people fail to grasp is, at that growth rate, anyone who places an ASIC order for above $20 per GH/s will no longer get a positive ROI. That means all unshipped BFL orders are now worthless. Same with Avalon and it's derivatives. Those units will no longer cover their monthly power costs in many areas.

This also means that the price of BTC/USD has to rise or miners will have to switch off their gear.

Miners need to be lower than 3watts per GH/s to still be viable. BFL, Avalon, and ASICminer are not.

kendog77

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Quote from: candoo on August 12, 2013, 02:26:35 PM

Do your homework. Difficulty goes from 37 to ~47..

Do your homework, candoo. You have a lot of learn, young one.

The latest difficulty adjusted to 50.8 m.

erk

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Activity: 826

Merit: 500

The going price for bitcoin ASIC hardware is about $20 per GH/s for the next few months, pay anymore and don't ever expect ROI, that rules out ASICminer, Avalon, and of course BFL, placing an order now with those three at $50 per GH/s or more and it's money wasted.

By the end of the year hardware should be getting around $15 per GH/s or it wont be profitable, next year it should be well bellow $10 per GH/s.

utarinues

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Quote from: fiddelingones on August 12, 2013, 02:52:59 PM

Quote from: kendog77 on August 12, 2013, 02:31:42 PM

If the value of BTC doesn't go up soon, a lot of folks are going to take big losses.

It seems it is quick bubble and ASICs companies will have hard time selling next year unless they will be able to decrease prices/GH constantly as the difficulty rises!

What is the lowest price per GHash considering mass production ? We will see next year I guess

fiddelingones

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Quote from: kendog77 on August 12, 2013, 02:31:42 PM

If the value of BTC doesn't go up soon, a lot of folks are going to take big losses.

It seems it is quick bubble and ASICs companies will have hard time selling next year unless they will be able to decrease prices/GH constantly as the difficulty rises!

Bitcoinorama

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Quote from: fcmatt on August 12, 2013, 02:49:43 PM

Quote from: Bitcoinorama on August 12, 2013, 02:48:12 PM

May have something to do with;

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2919073

i cannot tell if that thread is one big scam or legit.

He was given his chips out of that huge 2.1 million batch that arrived in June. He's connected with Gridcat/BTCman I believe, who outed Bitsyncom.

fcmatt

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Quote from: Bitcoinorama on August 12, 2013, 02:48:12 PM

May have something to do with;

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2919073

i cannot tell if that thread is one big scam or legit.

Bitcoinorama

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Activity: 532

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May have something to do with;

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2919073

AnonBitcoinBuyer

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Quote from: candoo on August 12, 2013, 02:26:35 PM

Do your homework. Difficulty goes from 37 to ~47..

51.5 according to http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
50.8 according to http://allchains.info/

AForceNinja

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looks like OP was right, around 51mill

Bitcoinorama

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Quote from: fcmatt on August 12, 2013, 02:34:50 PM

ASIC bubble? Who can even keep up with this ASIC crap and the super sketchy companies that are selling it or MAY be selling it in the near future.

I am expecting outright robbery and theft from gullible users over the next 3 months let alone a bubble.

Investing times. Thing I find unsettling/amusing is this is a predominantly English speaking forum. As much as I'm always impressed that many contribute and that English is not the first language if many, this forum leaves a lot of stones unturned. There are Chinese, Spanish, German etc. forums abound and we have no idea how much has been purchased through those...

fcmatt

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ASIC bubble? Who can even keep up with this ASIC crap and the super sketchy companies that are selling it or MAY be selling it in the near future.

I am expecting outright robbery and theft from gullible users over the next 3 months let alone a bubble.

kendog77

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Quote from: candoo on August 12, 2013, 02:26:35 PM

Do your homework. Difficulty goes from 37 to ~47..

OK, fine, the difficulty is only going up by 25%, but my point still stands.

A 100 bitcoin cannot sustain the millions of dollars of ASIC mining hardware that is about to hit the network for much longer.

If the value of BTC doesn't go up soon, a lot of folks are going to take big losses.

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