Topic: Bitcoin Average 70% to 85% drops in 'bear markets' before big pushes to ATH... - page 2. (Read 277 times)

really?

well. in january i could buy milk at (uk prices) £1.10 for 4 pints(2litres)
in march it became £1.50
over 30% rise in 3 months..

bitcoin went from (using topic creators cherry picked data points)
$1200 2013- $20,000 2018
thats a 16.66x in 5 years. (1666%)
a 3.3x in 1 years. (333%)
a 0.833x in 3 months (83%)

here you might be saying 30% in 3 months vs 83% is still not acceptable..
but.. the difference being.

for £1 you get less millilitres of milk per month.. (30% inflation)
but with btc you get more millilitres of milk per month (83% deflation)

meaning people get a better deal on value using bitcoin than using fiat

..
all im saying is that fiat value is not stable.
yes people are not getting their 30% inflation in minimum wage.. but when actually looking at the price of goods.. fiat inflation is bad. and not stable..
more people are moving into poverty with fiat. and more people are moving OUT of poverty in btc

At that is the definitive proof, that bitcoin is not yet sound money.

if you mean the swings from high to low between each ATH then you are correct. large swings.

but if you are looking at the monthly high low.. you are incorrect

for instance between the 2013 ATH of ~1200 and the 2018ATH of ~$20k
then you can see a crash in-between down to ~$200 (jan 2015)..which is basically where your 85% number came from

but if you are looking at the weekly/monthly/yearly. you would instead see
that ~$1200 becomes  ~$614 (down trend)
that ~$614  becomes $915 (up trend)
that ~$915  becomes $428 (down trend)
that ~$428  becomes $662 (up trend)
that ~$662  becomes $208 (down trend)

which is not 80% but less of a correction monthly/yearly view.. more like 50-70%

yet by you trying to pair 2013 to 2018 numbers and pretend nothing positive happened in-between, which is ignoring lots of the mini waves in-between

what you are also ignoring are the events that caused those ATH pumps and ATL crashes in between.

the 2013 pump was the transition from GPU to ASIC causing a massive price support rise
the jan2015 crash to ~200 was due to the MTGox scandal
the 2018 pump to $20k was due to large investment by institutions that benefit from certain newly added features to the code allowing altnet/sidechain locks

these events are unique in-of themselves and not repeatable so should not be used as target points to pretend that history repeats itself to the same magnitudes.
becasse they were event driven due to events unlikely to occur again to such magnitudes

instead take the more regular spikes and dips and get a more detailed view of multiple hypes and corrections. rather then cherry picking just a couple massive ones and pretending those massive ones will repeat

Yes my moto is "if in doubt zoom out" and trying to live by it.

I made a recent purchase at the top recently, not ashamed, as it's all experience. I am always tempted to sell at a 25% loss but keep slapping myself, the second I sell is the moment it shoots back up.

Guess I just have to put that money away now and wait till it comes back, it's a top 10 altcoin.

History has its voice and it can be repeated or not. Bitcoin has big cohort wallets around $23k so it is very possible to see huge capitulation around this. From $23k to $18k is possibly a last capitulation area which might triggers a new massove bull run for Bitcoin.

Additionally, make sure you read Glassnode insights which bases on on-chain data that never lies you.

Short term pain, Long term gain

I was looking at the "ALL" view on tradingview and measuring the drops from swing high to swing low on the weekly or monthly from 2012 to 2022 and the average drop was around 70% to 85%..

We are currently only 50% from ATH in Nov... Should we expect to see another 30% here taking bitcoin from anything such as $18,500 to $12,500???