Goodbye in my view.
I do not expect BTC to cross 2500 already: there will be probably be another leg up to the 3500-4000 USD range, before the real bear enters the game and confirms the bear market at 2500 USD.
People here are consistenly underestimating the risks they are running with respect to their investment. Relevant questions like the ones I am about to pose aren't even answered in practice:
- How much Chinese BTC can Western markets absorb?
- How many dedicated crypto investment funds will keep BTC in their portfolio long term?
- How will Chinese miners pay the energy bill, when they can no longer easily exchange their BTC for RMB?
There needs to be way more attention to such questions here.
Answering on bullet 3 first.
Bitmain's mine employs roundabout 50 workers, according to some nytimes.com foto feature from this month.
They represent about one-twentieth of the world's daily new BTC or $318,000 dollars a day, at the time of print.
Each person is allowed to export 50,000 RMB or $7,201.
(This value has been 200,000 RMB two years ago, PBOC getting more tight)
So without hiring any money mules they could move 50x $7000 = $360,000 on their own, which is more than BTC production. Assuming they are not mining at a loss, costs < revenue
Oh wait, that rule by thumb calculation lacks timeframe. Daily versus yearly, I think those 50k yuan are an annual individual quota. Hiring mules makes things expensive, but at least there are enough chinese living in china who are eager to earn a buck (about a 10 digits figure). They need
twelve 365 times more people than those fifty, just for one single tasks once a year, transfering money from Korea where the BTC got sold back into china. That could become a common job opportunity in 2018
Damn politics!
Bullet 1 and bullet 2 are actually identical, since "crypto investment funds" are equal to "Western markets". However they might want to buy in as cheap as possible, hence that dip vom $5000 down to $3000 which is a loss like -30% and got pumped back in a hurry once even daring to touch below $2900. A second bounce on that line would make people more confident?
I'm not worried. My bigger concern is all Segwit2x the 2nd part.