Bitcoin breaking out of 2 month downtrend - page 4.

imamusma

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 20, 2023, 12:57:45 PM

As the title suggests, Bitcoin appears to breaking out of it's two month long downtrend after reaching the highs of $13K on April 14th, that followed with lower lows and lower highs.

Don't rush, it should be $31k right?

Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 20, 2023, 12:57:45 PM

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

As of typing price hasn't made a higher high above last month high of $28,450, but is getting close.

I'm tend to think this trend will retest the $31k resistance over the last 10 days of June. I'm not sure $31k will failed to break yet, but some people might try to take profit in that area which will probably make it difficult for price to hold above $30k. Nice to see the percentage increase today, but as I write the price has fallen below $28k again.

adaseb

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I think its good for bitcoin to consolidate for weeks and then break-out upwards, kind of like we have been doing since November of last year. What we don't want to see is these massive daily and weekly candles where we gain +20% week after week.

Generally with bitcoin when that happens it means we are going to near a top and then start another sideways market and bear market. We need to see bitcoin up go slowly and not with violent upward moves, that usually indicates that the top is near.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: cabron on June 20, 2023, 01:31:10 PM

Once it surpasses $32k, there could be another decline in a few days and then pump again to $35k. It's climbing so fast actually which is worrisome but it looks like it is going to break 31k in a few days.

Price hasn't been climbing that fast either short or long-term based on Bitcoin's usual price action. For example today is around +4% and the week is +6%. It's slightly above average volatility, but otherwise probably just seems like it's moving fast because price has been moving so slowly for the past 2 months. Based on the Daily RSI for example, price is only just turning bullish after being neutral for almost two months, so far from overbought or anything like that. In fact, there is a lot of room to the upside if some of the shorter-term metrics cool-off in the meantime, especially given the break-out is barely even confirmed yet.

We'll now when price is moving quickly because the Daily rise will be more than +5%, likely around +10% with another weekly candle around +20%. This is the usual outcome of breakouts after months of consolidation.

cabron

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Once it surpasses $32k, there could be another decline in a few days and then pump again to $35k. It's climbing so fast actually which is worrisome but it looks like it is going to break 31k in a few days. Amazing that the herd is running already 6 months before this year end. They are not waiting for the halving.

Since big institutions are getting ready for this rally as well. Blackrock, Fidelity and its ETF approval will be a good reason to breathe and hold!

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: flyingcarpet on June 20, 2023, 01:06:52 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 20, 2023, 12:57:45 PM

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

I think it will test $31,000. Even if it's going to fall, it won't fall until I do this test. This is how I feel as the price broke the resistance trendline. Especially the news and lawsuits that have emerged in recent weeks have not done any harm to bitcoin. This news was not about bitcoin anyway. It took a while to test the 31k because of this news. This was the only negative impact of these news on Bitcoin.

It's a good point that the bearish news of SEC lawsuits overall had virtually no bearish effect on Bitcoin. Obviously fundamentally it shouldn't, as Bitcoin isn't referenced, but given how the market functions a lot on sentiment I'd assume that if the market was truly bearish then this would have had a negative effect on the overall market. Instead Bitcoin went sideways and has begun to recover since these announcements.

I'm not even convinced the recent ETF news is what has instigated this rally either, it seems to have simply negated the negativity of the SEC lawsuits, therefore leaving Bitcoin with a relatively neutral sentiment. With that neutrality and after a 2 month downtrend, it seems quite logical Bitcoin would continue to the upside, given it's effectively been in a broader uptrend since the start of the year now.

That's my take on the sentiment side of the market, technical analysis aside.

flyingcarpet

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 20, 2023, 12:57:45 PM

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

I think it will test $31,000. Even if it's going to fall, it won't fall until I do this test. This is how I feel as the price broke the resistance trendline. Especially the news and lawsuits that have emerged in recent weeks have not done any harm to bitcoin. This news was not about bitcoin anyway. It took a while to test the 31k because of this news. This was the only negative impact of these news on Bitcoin.

All in all, if I have to wrap up my post, my guess will test $31,000.

dragonvslinux

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As the title suggests, Bitcoin appears to breaking out of it's two month long downtrend after reaching the highs of $31K on April 14th, that followed with lower lows and lower highs.

As can be seen by the chart above, today price is breaking the resistance trend-line as well as moving back above the 50 Day MA that price has remained below for the past 5 weeks.

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

As of typing price hasn't made a higher high above last month high of $28,450, but is getting close.

Topic: Bitcoin breaking out of 2 month downtrend - page 4. (Read 424 times)