Topic: Bitcoin Breakout - page 4. (Read 692 times)

If those were just little amounts, they might not feel the profit because the more amount they've accumulated in bitcoin, the better returns that they shall get.
But still, profit is profit and they only have to wait until when they're ready to take profits as that's what they need to have when the price seems to be perfect already in selling.

Next resistance level is indeed 50,000$, but it's hard to say if the bulls' time has finally arrived again. We've already seen bitcoin reaching close to the mark, and the closer it reaches, the harder it is to break the resistance.

As I see the charts, on the last hour there is a strong decline in btc price, responsible for $500 decreasement already. By tomorrow, let's see where this tendency is going to take bitcoin.

I still think it's too early to draw that conclusion, the price just reached $47000 and it can stay between $44000 to $47000 for a long time, I've seen it many times, that's why I don't think it would be wise to buy at that level and say it's safe


like I said, I wouldn't be so sure about buying at this level.

Profitability would really depend on how you do trade and making out decisions which its a must thing for a trader for him to sustain this unpredictable market.We've been staying in 40k price level for a while now and the
price we do have currently is trying out to climb which is a good indication that we might able to break 50k soon and starts up to recover and might able to break out its previous ATH.
For now to those people who had accumulate in 40k+ or lower then they had made out some profits as of this moment but for long term holders then this isnt an issue most of the time.

I agree at both statements. But there are also more successful holders and they're consistently doing that. In the end, whichever strategy you're doing great and better, stick to it.
Change your plans if they're no longer working on you and you just have to be adaptable with any market situation because it's still you that will decide whether there's a breakout or none or we enter bears or bulls, you'll still be the one suffering or winning your trades and investments.

A good trader is actually a rare thing as I understand it.  Most people in the market lose 50% of their trades but the important part is they have the discipline, training and experience to know when to quit so their average loss is less then the average gain they see and that constant positive difference adds up to alot as you said its alot compounded every day; not that a trader profits every day I dont recognize that can always be the case.
   You should also represent that active trading is an 8 hours job at least, not to mention all the background work outside of live trading hours also.   Work equals more money then passive investment gains, so it should.  Last thing is the most natural trader I know personally, as in not a company is somebody who wakes every day at 5am to study trends overnight and then proceeds similarly never relenting for the rest of the day.  I lack the mental fortitude to honestly say I could do that learn and practice regularly for years.

The price may suddenly goes up or down, that is how volatility works. So i don't believe that this downtrend will be over even if bitcoin price reaches its $50k level. Of course, it opens a great opportunity that bitcoin might be heading its way to bull season, but it does not guarantee that it won't fall again. But i'm glad that the current value is now starting to be impressive and it could go even higher if there are positive events in the market that will happen soon.

I think that is because the beginning of April is also the start of the second quarter. Usually the more that we are close to the third and fourth quarter, the more the increase we are going to feel. If I am not mistaken there was a bull at November but the bear takes place in the beginning of December and lasted march, that's only 4 months or 120 days not 150 days but it was still a long wait. Many of us almost gave up during that time.

I think it's now time for us to experience the opposite thing. A long lasting bull would be enough to make us all happy. By the time btc cross over 45k, I think we can still consider that as a breakout but pretty sure it won't go down anymore.

Exactly, the history will always repeat and now Bitcoin looks to break every resistance and on a good position right now at the price of $48k. We will not drop that much again, the trend will continue and we should watch the market because for sure altcoins will follow the trend. Bitcoin is vert bullish right now, hope that taking profit should not happen yet so the price can go further.

Being a trader and being an investor are 2 completely different things. Both can be successful but a trader (if he is good) can actually do better.

There is an example that I use all the time that shows this to be true. In 2014, there was a stock that had bullish fundamentals. It was trading at 21.50 when I first discovered it and I bought it at that price. The stock moved up as high as $41 but onne year later on the same date, the stock closed at 28.50, meaning that an investor would have made about a 30% profit for the year (not bad at all). I am not an investor but a trader and as such, I traded that stock 18 times that year. I shorted the stock 11 times and bought the stock 7 times and I had 11 profitable trades and 7 losing trades. After commissions and losses were subtracted, my profit was $35 per share (versus $7 per share of the investor). I made 5 times more money trading than the investor holding.

Probably the most famous and "true" story is of a guy I met in 1984 that had purchased a seat on the Chicago Board of Trade in the Bond market. In other words, he was trading on the floor and there trading every day (as many as 50 times a day - in an out). He started with $25,000 dollars and in 2 years he had made $200 "million" dollars.

A good "trader" can make a lot more money than a buy and hold investor.

I've seen this happen many times where we reach a breakout, but the community is in such disbelief that they actually sell into this breakout, ignoring the fact that it's in fact a reversal, the beginning of a new trend. They keep selling, price keeps crawling up and after a while they all realize it's indeed a bull run, at which point they all start buying again with the fiat money they have lying around on their accounts from selling early and this is the point where we start going up like crazy.
The moment when the smart money is in and the street that was selling all throughout the correction and into the early reversal switches stance and injects additional fiat into the market when there's already a shortage of supply.

I'm waiting for a supply squeeze of the decade and believe me, if we go to 60k it's going to come, because last time we were between 60 and 70 there was much more coins on the market for people to buy. Now it's going to be less, but with similar or even bigger demand.

The month of April is always been bullish according to past years. Also, we have seen a long-lasting bearish market for more than 150 days so a relief bounce was inevitable. But to be a confirmed breakout BTC needs to stay above 45k for some time. This is one of the psychological zones that many traders are waiting for to be broken so that the market turns bullish.

For many, many years I have this conversation/debate about charts vs fundamentals but since I have not had that conversation here, let me give you the salient points.

Charts do not analyze or predict anything. What charts do is show what the "people-in-the-know-with-the-big-money" are doing. These are the people that know more than you or I know and their buying (or selling) is showing what they think and more importantly "where they are putting their money and at what price"

Fundamentals are always the basis for everything but fundamentals are only "in play" a few times a year. Computers, algorithms, traders and even investors are checking the charts as to where the big buying and selling is found and they are buying and selling "daily" and that is what makes Bitcoin go from support to resistance and back.

By reading the charts, I can see what those people in the know are doing and given they know more than I do about the fundamentals, I would rather "follow the knowledgeable money" than try to evaluate the fundamentals myself.

In that respect, charts are very dependable given that Computers, algorithm, and chart traders are all going to be buying at X point and selling at Y point, unless fundamentals change (perhaps a few times a year). No one person can move any market but when you have a big money group "all" buying and selling at certain levels, the chances of success are much higher. In simple words, by reading the charts, I know where these big traders will be buying and will be selling "automatically.

Reading charts is not easy but when you have done it for 47 years and have seen hundreds of thousands of charts, you would be amazed at how things get cleared up substantially, and the important thing is that the product does not matter (it could be stocks, indexes, commodities or crypto). Human nature is the same everywhere.

Finally, bitcoin is back at $47k today, and this is a great moment as many of us are already buying bitcoins at low prices. Many of them sold bitcoins at a price now and made a profit. But I think some are still holding their bitcoins because their target has not been achieved.

Those who haven't bought bitcoins at the last low price can buy them now or wait until the price corrects. But don't be sad if the price can't get back below $45k because it probably won't get back there. But if the price is back there again, it's a good time for them to buy it.

LOL. I expect those prices, what happens is that I do not expect $1M in 6 months, but we will gradually reach those prices, I am sure of it, and it is not a matter of greed or fear. It is a matter of fundamental analysis. Today there is nothing better than Bitcoin to store and transfer wealth, especially in large quantities. And bitcoin is even more useful in the environment we find ourselves in, with rising inflation, tax hikes and governments with a tax collection drive that borders on confiscatory.

Regarding the OP, I hope to see more of his predictions around here to see if he gets it right more times, showing that it is true that he is a good chartist.

What a coincidence. If you can observe too, the monthly candle close is fast approaching too. I am thinking if this is a bull trap or a breakout indeed, but I am more confident with the latter.
The month of April is a very good month for the bulls for sure especially if we will breakout the $50,000 this month.

A 50K BTC price at the beginning of April would be great.During the entire winter season,I've had a positive feeling about the Bitcoin price in the upcoming spring and my gut feeling might be right.Of course,a Bitcoin price level of 45-50K USD might be temporary and the price might drop back to 40K,if major FUD news appear out of nowhere(probably USA or Russia).
I'm not one of bullish maximalists,who are expecting 100K,250K or a million dollar Bitcoin price.We should be happy with a 50K price.Greed is always a bad advisor,just like fear.
 

Yeah, fiesta should be around $60k'ish before we can all celebrate again and get out our Margaritas and have some fun.

So it's a long way to go before we can see that price again, so the best thing to do is a wait and see attitude again. Who knows, maybe after a break out run of $50k the market suddenly goes bearish as speculators are selling again because they know that the price will have a hard time going up and thinks that we are still in the bears territory despite this initial break out run this year.

The fear and greed index is accurately showing that people are leaning towards greed again.
So I'd expect more such "deep analysis" come out as long as the price looks good.
But we're in speculation area. Don't be too harsh, I've seen worse and I guess that you too.


All in all, shouldn't the fiesta start much closer to the last ATH? I fear we're rushing it a little and we'll get out Margaritas before we have the real party...

Weekly bars matter most and we've had one single weekly bar above the 50 day average and we are running right into the 200 day and the 50 week.   There is no absolute certainties but these two measures show why it will take more then a week above a positive momentum indicator to be sure BTC is now bullish.
   The most likely outcome as always is there exists a mix of buyers and sellers and we have to develop for a longer period to gain enough energy to break upwards especially.   For large movements upwards we are basically talking about an imbalance for whatever reason why buyers outweigh any doubts, any forced sales and retraction in leveraged money.   Normally traders must sell, they borrow the money and the trade must be closed so a constant cycle is normal and we first likely to see this occur.   We'll retract and I hope rise back higher.