Bitcoin Bull Break Above $11k And Falling Wedge

arpon11

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Quote from: guoyu78 on August 15, 2019, 01:48:28 AM

Quote from: exstasie on August 14, 2019, 01:33:47 PM

Quote from: STT on August 13, 2019, 06:41:50 PM

Capped, confined and collapsed. Couldnt beat the 8 day average which seems to be a good place to turn negative when it acts like this. Then it failed the Fib line and fallen down a rung to the next level.

So should the target be 10,400 for an area for it reform any attempt upwards.

Good call earlier. I'm always amazed at how hard Bitcoin dumps just when everyone is so bullish. Already testing $10,000 now!

With such strong rejection at the 0.618 and overhead downtrend line, it still seems possible to see prices below $9K. Where do you see us going in the next few weeks?

I guess the market was just following the principle which I think is just a made believe, I mean the principle of being bearish when everyone is bullish, and being bullish when everyone is bearish, it sometimes worked though and it played out recently for me too, immediately I saw that everyone was going bullish, I sold some of my coin also expecting that form of correction which I was happy to buy again at cheaper rate.

If the market still goes below $9k, it is fine, we will just have to still use the little that we have left to buy at that opportunity given, so that when there is a rebound of price, there would be enough profit to climb on our investment which I believe that will make the investor happy for making the decision, and I advise that many people should also buy at the price now.

It might not go below $9000 this time around because a lot of buying other has been placed around $9100 the last bottom. The 100ma which also serve as support and resistance has move over $9000 and it will be a very strong fight for Bitcoin to break lower. From the look of thinks the volume is the problem here. If it keeps getting lower any time bitcoin get close to $12,000,, the probability that it is going to retrace back is there. I believe that we need institutionalized investment that will push the volume up.

guoyu78

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Quote from: exstasie on August 14, 2019, 01:33:47 PM

Quote from: STT on August 13, 2019, 06:41:50 PM

Capped, confined and collapsed. Couldnt beat the 8 day average which seems to be a good place to turn negative when it acts like this. Then it failed the Fib line and fallen down a rung to the next level.

So should the target be 10,400 for an area for it reform any attempt upwards.

Good call earlier. I'm always amazed at how hard Bitcoin dumps just when everyone is so bullish. Already testing $10,000 now!

With such strong rejection at the 0.618 and overhead downtrend line, it still seems possible to see prices below $9K. Where do you see us going in the next few weeks?

I guess the market was just following the principle which I think is just a made believe, I mean the principle of being bearish when everyone is bullish, and being bullish when everyone is bearish, it sometimes worked though and it played out recently for me too, immediately I saw that everyone was going bullish, I sold some of my coin also expecting that form of correction which I was happy to buy again at cheaper rate.

If the market still goes below $9k, it is fine, we will just have to still use the little that we have left to buy at that opportunity given, so that when there is a rebound of price, there would be enough profit to climb on our investment which I believe that will make the investor happy for making the decision, and I advise that many people should also buy at the price now.

STT

legendary

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I think it has lost momentum in stages, like a plane at the top of its ascent it will glide and then it loses the flight speed to stay at that altitude and appears to drop though it was coming for a while.

So who knows long term, probably it will not happen all at once. I'm only looking at 9300 area for it to hit that and then probably there are orders there set in the hope of the 30% gains BTC can pull out the bag. It is quite a series of red bars currently though.

Longer term, so weekly bars I think its reasonable to speculate we can be lower and its already in a trend to do so.

We could get like 8500 which isnt especially harsh but its lower then previous closes. If we can do that then it would seem to confirm we wont just be repeating previous action, bouncing in a box.
That previous weekly bar, green but hitting the top in that way and receding is bearish. Then its had some attempt to go higher and now firmly conforming to more bearish action, so its been whipped into line and it is a harsh or sharp action I guess.

Not holding 9000 would be upsetting to some, I've assumed a channel but it could be worse or more muddled. It has this whole week to beguile and confuse people Tongue

exstasie

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Quote from: STT on August 13, 2019, 06:41:50 PM

Capped, confined and collapsed. Couldnt beat the 8 day average which seems to be a good place to turn negative when it acts like this. Then it failed the Fib line and fallen down a rung to the next level.

So should the target be 10,400 for an area for it reform any attempt upwards.

Good call earlier. I'm always amazed at how hard Bitcoin dumps just when everyone is so bullish. Already testing $10,000 now!

With such strong rejection at the 0.618 and overhead downtrend line, it still seems possible to see prices below $9K. Where do you see us going in the next few weeks?

BitHodler

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Quote from: buwaytress on August 14, 2019, 06:08:45 AM

Capped indeed, but I don't think they were really that many people who were seriously thinking we'd get a breakout, right? Draper, Lee et al excluded of course. And they're not realistic.

I think the market as a whole has been leaning towards a more bearish scenario, which can be seen by looking at the short versus long ratio. People expect the price to take another dive and I can't blame them.

Important to point out is that we have seen the market go against the sentiment more than once lately, so it wouldn't really surprise me if we see a bounce up from here looking at the shorts. We'll see what happens in the coming days.

After a pretty strong decline from the $14k mark we are still hovering above the $10k mark-- if you asked people in January of this year if they could see $10k be possible this year, they would have laughed in your face.

buwaytress

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Capped indeed, but I don't think they were really that many people who were seriously thinking we'd get a breakout, right? Draper, Lee et al excluded of course. And they're not realistic.

Think another rung drop is on the cards even today, actually, depending on how European traders act. Prepping buy orders?

STT

legendary

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Capped, confined and collapsed. Couldnt beat the 8 day average which seems to be a good place to turn negative when it acts like this. Then it failed the Fib line and fallen down a rung to the next level.

So should the target be 10,400 for an area for it reform any attempt upwards.

carlfebz2

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Quote from: exstasie on August 10, 2019, 12:21:31 PM

No matter how bullish the chart might look, it's support/resistance and high/low pivots that dictate price feedback. If you haven't broken pivot resistance and made higher highs yet, then the bearish scenario is always possible. Set your stop losses accordingly or just trade the breakout, like I usually do.

This what makes this market is too unpredictable where prices can break out on the other way around no matter how bullish the indicator was.
Setting stoplosses is always been suggested in times like these when making or depending on technical aspects.Bullish triangle cant anytime indicate to go on the precise path.

deisik

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Quote from: Slow death on August 09, 2019, 11:48:09 AM

Quote from: Whaleagent on August 05, 2019, 04:31:17 PM

The bitcoin bulls have done it again with a huge bull break above the $11000 level, the $11085 daily resistance and the falling wedge on the weekly chart. This is a huge achievement for the bulls and although the volume isn’t too great, it doesn’t really matter at this point. The price is no way above the daily EMA’s which have crossed bullish.

This price increase really was incredible, but it is not easy to overcome the support it has at $12000. several times whenever the price is above $12000 it does not take long for it to fall below $12000

You probably meant resistance, right?

Regardless, Bitcoin entered, let's call it, no-man's land, an area where there is not enough supply as well as demand to stabilize prices at their current levels above 10k. Hence we see the levels of volatility that we haven't seen with Bitcoin since 2017. The practical importance of this phenomenon is that we are unlikely to surge way above recent highs and stay there. On the other hand, there seems to be real support (yeah) piled up at 9k, so why not ride these waves of volatility while they last?

exstasie

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We're past the stage where this could be considered a bull flag. You might call it a failed bull flag, which is commonly seen during bear market conditions:

It looks like xxxx123abcxxxx may have been right again after all. The $10,800 zone is probably a bounce area but it looks to me like we're still headed lower over the next couple weeks.

STT

legendary

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Quite surprising in some ways and important to the larger weekly bar picture I think, where we have 3 declining peak prices. Could be we are bearish overall, I thought we might exceed that now so long as 12k held as a step towards higher prices. If its the ceiling that changes the outlook, once again its going to challenge 9000 prices presuming Tokyo open in 24hr confirms everything and doesnt reverse

exstasie

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Quote from: exstasie on August 09, 2019, 01:34:46 PM

It's starting to look like a bullish triangle to me. If so, it's nearing completion, currently in the E wave. However, since this market is a troll fest at the moment, I'm still hesitant to turn bullish until we actually confirm the breakout. Bulls need to get above the D pivot at $12,050:

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why we wait for confirmed breakouts:

No matter how bullish the chart might look, it's support/resistance and high/low pivots that dictate price feedback. If you haven't broken pivot resistance and made higher highs yet, then the bearish scenario is always possible. Set your stop losses accordingly or just trade the breakout, like I usually do.

exstasie

legendary

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It's starting to look like a bullish triangle to me. If so, it's nearing completion, currently in the E wave. However, since this market is a troll fest at the moment, I'm still hesitant to turn bullish until we actually confirm the breakout. Bulls need to get above the D pivot at $12,050:

Slow death

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Quote from: Whaleagent on August 05, 2019, 04:31:17 PM

The bitcoin bulls have done it again with a huge bull break above the $11000 level, the $11085 daily resistance and the falling wedge on the weekly chart. This is a huge achievement for the bulls and although the volume isn’t too great, it doesn’t really matter at this point. The price is no way above the daily EMA’s which have crossed bullish.

This price increase really was incredible, but it is not easy to overcome the support it has at $12000. several times whenever the price is above $12000 it does not take long for it to fall below $12000

Quote from: SquallLeonhart on August 09, 2019, 05:21:35 AM

For long term holder, I think we should just forget about monitoring the market for now, or else we will give ourselves unnecessary tension, our goal is to reach ATH and when the time comes, it will be clearly known to us.

The problem with failing to monitor price is that on the day the person decides to see the price, he may be most disappointed. Imagine someone who bought BTC when the price was $19000 and has stopped monitoring the price and today that person decides to see the price and finds that the price is at $11700, that person will realize that he is with high losses. I believe the ideal is to monitor the price constantly and follow the news constantly

1Referee

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Quote from: exstasie on August 08, 2019, 08:00:12 PM

But as long as we don't make new highs, the bear case is still possible, however unlikely. Plus going long right now means betting against xxxx123abcxxxx, whose calls have been rock solid.

The bear case is definitely possible and I'll get out of my long if turns out that we're heading towards lower lows. After what happened in 2018 I'm no longer taking a risk with my trades and shift whenever I see a change in the dynamics of the market. My gut feelings have been bearish for a while now, but the rational trader inside me just follows the charts, which is what I did.

As far as the calls of 123abc goes, I haven't followed his calls so I'll have to look into them, but even when taking everything else into consideration, we still follow our own route as to what we believe will happen (at least, that's how it should be).

SquallLeonhart

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Quote from: Harlot on August 08, 2019, 02:26:49 PM

BTC as of right now is showing some weakness after hitting 12,300$. It has now lost 6% of its value after attempting to go higher than 12,300$ now its only 11,590$ the lowest of which is 11,200$ for today. With that quick recover after 11,200$ I think the market is still in favor for the bulls but if Bitcoin continues to be in favor of the sellers by just going down nearer to 11,000$ once again then we might go down around 10,000$ by the end of the week. RSI is still in the middle so there is no indication on where the market will go from this point.

The market will still be in favor of bulls even if the price falls lower than this, the good thing about the current market is that we are already in uptrend and we are far away from the bear market, so whatever drop in value we are seeing should just be counted as correction and I think we will be seeing lots of these correction before the bull run come, the only people that would just be luck are those that are using this opportunity to trade, they just buy low and then sell high every time they see that opportunity.

For long term holder, I think we should just forget about monitoring the market for now, or else we will give ourselves unnecessary tension, our goal is to reach ATH and when the time comes, it will be clearly known to us.

exstasie

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Quote from: 1Referee on August 08, 2019, 04:48:43 PM

I converted my short into a 2x long and I'm ready for the next leg up. People might consider 2x boring, but no wick will stop me out. There are no certainties of course, because we technically haven't seen a high local high yet, but given the current trend it's kinda foolish to be bearish for too long.

Probably. I'm still sitting on hands until this congestion is officially done though. No reason to rush into a position in my view because once we make new highs, it should be clear sailing for a while.

But as long as we don't make new highs, the bear case is still possible, however unlikely. Plus going long right now means betting against xxxx123abcxxxx, whose calls have been rock solid.

1Referee

legendary

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Quote from: exstasie on August 08, 2019, 12:53:05 PM

Here's a look at that trend line we've been watching:
-snip-

It's going to be super interesting in the coming 10ish days. If we keep moving sideways, and respect the ascending trend line that has been there since April, it might offer a helping hand to confidently push above the descending line as seen in your screenshot. I strongly believe that given the trend, we will make higher local highs.

I converted my short into a 2x long and I'm ready for the next leg up. People might consider 2x boring, but no wick will stop me out. There are no certainties of course, because we technically haven't seen a high local high yet, but given the current trend it's kinda foolish to be bearish for too long.

Harlot

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BTC as of right now is showing some weakness after hitting 12,300$. It has now lost 6% of its value after attempting to go higher than 12,300$ now its only 11,590$ the lowest of which is 11,200$ for today. With that quick recover after 11,200$ I think the market is still in favor for the bulls but if Bitcoin continues to be in favor of the sellers by just going down nearer to 11,000$ once again then we might go down around 10,000$ by the end of the week. RSI is still in the middle so there is no indication on where the market will go from this point.

exstasie

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Quote from: Baofeng on August 08, 2019, 06:49:32 AM

Quote from: exstasie on August 07, 2019, 11:36:07 AM

What a roller coaster! I'm still not sure about the big picture regarding mid term trend. This is not a confirmed bearish reversal yet, although it's beginning to look that way.

^^ This. last night was a make or break, I thought that the bears will taking over and a reversal is imminent. Was mad at not taking the profit,

.

That's funny because given how the dumps were being bought up right below $12K, I was sure it was bulls who were taking over. When I opened the chart last night, I expected to be coasting through the $12,000s. To my surprise, it actually looks like bears may have won the battle for $12,000.

If they can just make new lows below the $11,200 area it will start looking like a very clear failure and longs will start being squeezed out. Now that sellers have made their stand, the high long/short ratio on Bitmex and Bitfinex is really looming.

Here's a look at that trend line we've been watching:

Topic: Bitcoin Bull Break Above $11k And Falling Wedge (Read 326 times)