iluvepie60:
im sorry but here is some minor corrections
1. bitpay doesnt sell to the exchange markets. they have private investors throwing dollars at them and getting the bitcoin in return away from the markets. bitpay only uses the 'price' as a guide to valuate how much to give to investors in return for their investments. however if you mentioned coinbase.. then you would have had a point about merchants getting coin and immediately selling back to fiat.
2. even if there were 1 merchant or 500,000 merchants the number does not make an impact. if people do not want to use their btc because they are in a holding pattern.. they will hold. and simply use their fiat bank accounts to buy goods the old fashioned way.
3. overstock are hoarding coins, not selling them... need i explain more about this point?
4. instead of last year when people would sell coins on exchanges to cash out, they are now spending with merchants. so at this point(A) less coins are being sold on exchanges. once a merchant receives them 100% of coin does not hit an exchange(point B) so imagine these 2 scenario's
s: 1000 people want to buy a $600 computer from bestbuy in august 2012, they have to cashout 3btc($200x3) each and then walk into store to buy a computer.
s: this year 1000 want to buy a $600 computer from overstock, they spend 1btc each. none of which hits an exchange at point A or B. meaning no exchange sell-off.
5. the reason the prices are more stable and not seeing rapid spikes, is because large investors are not using exchanges anymore (point1 explains one reason why) the other is that exchanges are now more AML compliant so people cant simply throw over $10k at a wire transfer like before. thus exchanges are now doing little trades not large 200-1000 bitcoin trades in one order. so the volatility has slowed down and larger trades are done privately so you wont see large dumps from payment gateways, or large spikes by investors.
6. to cause a $50 price decline in any 1 day would take a couple thousands bitcoins to be sold in a fast and continuous fashion. that would mean 1000 people will need to buy a dell PC in only a few hours. yet so far dell may get 200,000 deals a year, (after all dell CEO got over excited about a 85btc order in one day, so its expected that is the largest amount of btc they have seen so far)
have a nice day