Topic: Bitcoin BULL/Rally Forming? (Read 3555 times)

I dont see how merchants could be bad because the bitcoin has to be in the hands of people buying before anyone can be selling it back to market.   There arent any extra coins now produced because a company offers a product for sale in bitcoin.   Ive had plenty offers to sell my bitcoin for cash so why is a new product going to create less demand to hold bitcoins, Im not sure I get that one really.


Cant judge on price alone, I think that would be a mistake.  Price alone represents demand on one particular day perhaps and its an open market anyone can create a picture for one day.
The best thing to look at the volume of trading done today, then compare to various peaks like xmas and so on.   Is the volume greater on higher price or lower price.   

Right now Im not enthusiastic about a rise particularly, I need to see greater volume when price is rising.   The volume for that day that BTC gains then needs to be greater then a day the price fell and so on, that way we can speculate about rising numbers of held or stored bitcoin or greater demand even.

The price drop sentiment come from the fact that many bitcoin holders are the most gullible type of investors. Despite many large scale projects went bust and undelivered ASIC miners, bitcoin investors still pour large sum of bitcoin into something that is "pre-order" and "not complete" in nature.

The most recent such projects are "Neo and bee", which went bust; and Ethereum, which have technical and design issue on bloated blockchain that is still un-resolved.

IPO coins raised this way will eventually need to be sell on the market. If a 3-4k coin liquidation from Ethrerum crowd caused bitcoin to drop from around 600 to 490, imagine what will follow when they liquidate the entire bitcoin holding 20k+ btc in the coming months.

And if I am not mistaken, people still pouring in money to invest into Ethereum project, who know how many coin they will finally raised and subsequently sell.

Fucking magnets (banks,prices,bitcoins) how do they work?

when price rebound from 400 to 900 that was a bull trap.

the overshoot to 680 and now crash back down to 500 is consolidation.

the big question isn't whether it drops lower, rough limits have been established and tested, you have to have some really distorted market view to think price can easily go much lower.

the question is will another 10X increase fallow this consolidation like every other time...

i've been hearing people say they don't expect 10X this time around, more like 3-5X.

i blame the normalcy bias....

price is gana go 100X this time, can no one see what happening in the world today?

COME ON PEOPLE!

how many times did you say to yourself, if they accept bitcoin this would be much easier, and benefit both me the buyer and them the seller.

now i'm going to figure out how to place an order on alibaba and send money to china without encountering a 25% fee from WU

fucking bank wires across borders, how do they work? and why do they cost so much?



Seems simple enough!

When bitcoin hit 600, it was a bull trap.

Expecting the price to hit 400 or lower in 2-3 weeks.

you said it brother. obvious bear trap is obvious lol 

he thinks the companies are the supply. he's using supply in a very different way than the typical supply(money)demand(want for da moneys) analogy. supply in his scenario is what we call selling pressure. he's not really wrong its just a misunderstanding

And in the other way i think that the people who spent their btcs on a merchant , he should had spent it anyway if there wasnt that merchant. This merchant selloff will only last  few days.. people buying things with btc cant drive the price down.

I hope we can see 1000 again this year

You can already spend bitcoin on amazon, target, cvs, and other places through gyft.com and save 0.5-1% compared to paying the usual way (credit card, assuming 1% cash back from cc, compared to 3% rewards gyft gives). So there's definitely places to spend it and a good reason to use it. The problem is that it's still a couple extra steps and a huge pain in the ass. But you are exactly right: we are slowly breaking down the barrier. Just a matter of time (even if it's a long time!)

Seems like a drop off like this always happens before a rally, I wouldnt be surprised if were back over $600 soon.

The biggest barrier to entry into the Bitcoin "network" (not the actual network, but the network of people using it) is its small size. There are not enough places to spend Bitcoin which causes consumers to not want it, but companies won't accept it until enough people use it. We are slowly breaking down this barrier.

I used to believe that too. In reality, it's just an outlet for long time holders to spend their bitcoins somewhere without the hassle of paying fees or finding buyers to cash out. Bitcoiners begged merchants to accept their money, and smart companies listened.

Checking out with bitcoin is quick (I've done it myself a few times), but to anyone outside our little bitcoin community, it's nothing more than a novelty. Nobody is buying bitcoins for the first time to use them at Overstock. They buy them to make money...

The one thing we had going for it was that the price would rise every year in dramatic fashion. It looks like those days may be over now that there are several channels to spend bitcoin (so much easier to offload... not so much hoarding) and there are even methods to short bitcoin now.

I believe the end of May was actually our "bubble" for this year, but for the reasons mentioned above, it tapered off before any serious action occurred. This will probably be the new normal as we gradually drop in price over the coming months/years.

Well just imagine the bitcoin ETF gets listed tomorrow.

I agree.  More places to spend ==> more usage ==> more acceptance.  In theory that should mean a higher fiat price baring other negative factors.  I think we've seen that over the past 4 years, even the past 2 years.

One point of note is that we are now more than half way to the next reward halving (spring/summer 2016 depending on how quickly mining power is added during that period). At some point in the next 24 months people will realize that the mining subsidy (new bitcoin supply) is about to drop by half and at that point there will be more interest in obtaining coins prior to it doing so.  Whether that will occur quite a while before the halving, shortly before or shortly thereafter I do not know.  But once the awareness that the new supply will be cut in half I believe that it will have a significant impact on the fiat price of bitcoin as it did in the past (along with many other factors, including usage and acceptance of course).

I think that with the larger awareness of bitcoin now as compared to fall of 2012, people will realize earlier the implications of the reward halving and so we'll see a good spike prior to that.  Given that it appears that right now with the current block reward we are at a short-term equilibrium in fiat pricing, cutting the new supply in half will have a large impact on fiat pricing as long as usage continues to grow (or even possibly remains constant).

OP, this is a clown topic bro. Enough with the sock puppet accounts backing up your statement.

What I luv hippies is trying to say is the volume of BTC conversions to FIAT will increase as more merchants accept BTC as a form of payment. BTC is too volatile for any reputable business to hold long term as a store of value. This process causes too much supply and not enough demand unless new people learn about BTC and purchase BTC at the rate it's being dumped.

Although it is true that more companies accepting Bitcoin can, in the short term, exert downward pressure on price (because companies tend to sell Bitcoin they receive), it's a bullish signal long term because it increases the utility of Bitcoin as a currency.

you are probably right
we are in summer,low volume time,easy to manipulate
i think we will see a rebound in the next after summer months

I think we are in a danger position.

Most radicals hodlers have the faith that the Bitcoin's price increase, if it won't happen they and the people they managed to convince may get tired and just sell their bitcoins.

Also if we lose the 550's level, there is no reason to believe that we will stop before the 400's(see the Bitstamp's 1 day chart and agree with me).
I would wait until we see sub 600 prices in the Bitstamp and in the BTC-e, or a break in the 650's level, to call it buy-ish, because we would be in the opposite of the current situation(aka: good scenario: prices rise, bad scenario, we don't fall neither rise. Now good scenario: we don't plunge to 400's, bad scenario: we plunge to 400's)

I'm liking where everybody speculates the price to go but I just think we should beware the unexpected and not act as if it is a foregone conclusion. 

price will go up, when it will.... no need to hurry or rush
patience is key

iluvpie60 appears to be playing word acrobatics to obfuscate things.
I'm not saying he's a troll or a shill, but if it's the case that he is speaking his mind from a genuine disposition, than he simply just doesn't have any foundation whatsoever in basic economics.

OK, So that there is NO FURTHER CONFUSION.  This is what iluvpie60
states in his own exact words, completely in context.


"Are you joking or are you actually this confused? We are not talking about the supply of BTC keeping the price at X. We are talking about the Supply of companies accepting the Demand of BTC keeping the price at x."

and

"You need to improve your reading comprehension. There is too much supply so price of BTC has been going down. There are too many places to spend the BTC compared to the people willing to spend the BTC(demand)."

 

So iluvpie60 is clearly declaring in all of his infinite wisdom that since there are more places to spend Bitcoin than people willing to spend than the price of bitcoin goes down.


OK, let's use another financial asset to state the equivalent.  Let's use Gold.  And let's say that there is X amount of companies who are wiling to accept Gold for their products and services and Y amount of Gold owners
who are willing to spend Gold.  

If X (Amount of companies/people who want Gold (at least as a means of exchange) and are thus willing to accept Gold) is Greater than Y (the number of people who are willing to spend Gold) How can any sane person state that the price of Gold is going to go down??

In both examples, there are less people wiling to spend an asset than there are people who would otherwise be willing to accept it for trade.  

THEREFORE, Price must go up

So why is the price of bitcoin going down?  Markets go up, markets go down, there could be a plethora of reasons why, but none of which have anything to do with reasons thus stated by iluvpie60

dont worry relax.. it seems your a FIAT investor, looking for a quick spike to cash out within the month. im sorry but bitcoin is a long term project. once the ground work of infrastructure is settled and payment gateways are all military grade security and liability insured.(not script kiddies php code) these companies will do the advertising and get the consumers/average joe into bitcoin.

just watch what happens when for instance the winklevoss ETF opens up. you'll see

just be patient

oh and by the way, dont be a FIAT investor as the dollar is going to go 'Zimbabwe' on your ass. where a loaf of bread will cost you $1000 in a few years. so no point cashing out btc below $1000.. unless its the best loaf of bread in the world

well i agree with you there. merchants are not bad for bitcoin, there is just a lot of merchants accepting it before the majority of people are using it. we expect to have this huge bitcoin price boom but we don't have the bitcoin users to get it there. the infrastructure is being laid faster and faster on the supply side(vendor adoption) and the demand is seemingly slowing down(people paying in btc). right now as btc slowly is dipping down it would be in the best interests of most merchants to hold i agree with you there, but t hat is only if they think the btc will be worth more. there is a lot of pessimism lately so who knows.

There's a speculation subforum...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

I expect a slide to $500-$520 and then a rebound to the $800 level .. just my opinion

you do know that apart from small mom and pop stores using coinbase.

the majority of merchants are beginning to hoard or atleast the payment gateway(bitpay mainly) are using non public exchange methods. (as i said in earlier post). and here is another point. when these large hoards are ready to sell. they wont do it on bitstamp(AML large payment flags), they wont do it on btc-e(AML large payment flags). they probably wont do it on coinbase as a large hoard sell-off would devalue their own holdings. instead these merchants would do private trading.

so the only worry you really have in regards to merchants, is the small merchants that use coinbase that dont hoard.

on average for every 1btc that would have been sold on an exchange to cash-out to fiat and then buy goods,  less than 20% of bitcoin would end up on an exchange if customers spent that btc with merchants instead.

so stop trying to say merchants are bad for bitcoin!

You took that out of context, read everything in order and then it flows. You can't just take that part out because then it makes it "seem like" I am saying companies are the supply of bitcoin(which i didnt). The reason I worded it that way is because companies do not demand bitcoin, they supply products which are paid for in a nominal value such as monetary or crytpo, which is then implies bitcoin is the demand in the aforementioned example.

which is why I later said...

the Supply of companies accepting the Demand of BTC keeping the price at x.

in his quote I say Places to use also...

nice edit to add the words "places to use". just a shame for you that we seen the pre-edit with our own eyes.

care to edit the part highlighted in red too?

Quote me where I said that. L2 read.

bahahaha!  Iluvpie60 thinks that companies accepting Bitcoin are increasing the supply of Bitcoin

 

It appears basic economics was thrown right out the window of the WTC7 Penthouse

 

As i see BTC price is keeping move down since the first week of the month is still value about $630 till $650. But currently become lower than $600 for 1 btc.

iluvepie60:
im sorry but here is some minor corrections
1. bitpay doesnt sell to the exchange markets. they have private investors throwing dollars at them and getting the bitcoin in return away from the markets. bitpay only uses the 'price' as a guide to valuate how much to give to investors in return for their investments. however if you mentioned coinbase.. then you would have had a point about merchants getting coin and immediately selling back to fiat.

2. even if there were 1 merchant or 500,000 merchants the number does not make an impact. if people do not want to use their btc because they are in a holding pattern.. they will hold. and simply use their fiat bank accounts to buy goods the old fashioned way.

3. overstock are hoarding coins, not selling them... need i explain more about this point?

4. instead of last year when people would sell coins on exchanges to cash out, they are now spending with merchants. so at this point(A) less coins are being sold on exchanges. once a merchant receives them 100% of coin does not hit an exchange(point B) so imagine these 2 scenario's
s: 1000 people want to buy a $600 computer from bestbuy in august 2012, they have to cashout 3btc($200x3) each and then walk into store to buy a computer.

s: this year 1000 want to buy a $600 computer from overstock, they spend 1btc each. none of which hits an exchange at point A or B. meaning no exchange sell-off.

5. the reason the prices are more stable and not seeing rapid spikes, is because large investors are not using exchanges anymore (point1 explains one reason why) the other is that exchanges are now more AML compliant so people cant simply throw over $10k at a wire transfer like before. thus exchanges are now doing little trades not large 200-1000 bitcoin trades in one order. so the volatility has slowed down and larger trades are done privately so you wont see large dumps from payment gateways, or large spikes by investors.

6. to cause a $50 price decline in any 1 day would take a couple thousands bitcoins to be sold in a fast and continuous fashion. that would mean 1000 people will need to buy a dell PC in only a few hours. yet so far dell may get 200,000 deals a year, (after all dell CEO got over excited about a 85btc order in one day, so its expected that is the largest amount of btc they have seen so far)

have a nice day

Yes, wrong section, but returning IT I think that the price will drop again before rising.

This belongs in the speculation sub-section. Flagging for move.

Nobody on here is going to agree with you.

@ your PS comment, how can you ever logically conclude that BTC is the supply in this scenario. Are you joking or are you actually this confused? We are not talking about the supply of BTC keeping the price at X. We are talking about the Supply of companies accepting the Demand of BTC keeping the price at x.

jeez dude....

That's funny because you stated the The Companies are the Supply.

That statement alone shows you have no idea what you're talking about genius. I'm not even gonna bother reading this paragraph. LOL

You need to improve your reading comprehension. There is too much supply so price of BTC has been going down. There are too many places to spend the BTC compared to the people willing to spend the BTC(demand). So when any of those places gets BTC they have to hurry up and get rid of it(what bitpay does). Thus creating a temporary market effect of companies selling under the average price which brings the average down. Why else is BTC down to like 560 right now? It isn't because so many people are using it.


Please save the talking down of people for someone who is dumber than you.


@ your PS comment, how can you ever logically conclude that BTC is the supply in this scenario. Are you joking or are you actually this confused? We are not talking about the supply of BTC keeping the price at X. We are talking about the Supply of companies accepting the Demand of BTC keeping the price at x.

jeez dude....

Complete baseless speculation. Nothing can be predicted in bitcoin, people should know that by now. This thread also belongs in speculation.

price declined today. so bitcoin will fade away 

Define soon. I think we might see $800 in Fall the earliest, not before. Too much selling pressure and bearish sentiment an the moment.

Lol, What you've said truly makes no sense....Do you know how this all even works?

Ok, I'll give you the run down.

Someone buys Bitcoin

They use that Bitcoin to buy something on Overstock.com

Overstock sells the bitcoin for usd after that Person has bought w/e


There, The person buying the bitcoin, and Overstock selling the bitcoin cancel each other out, so it has No effect on the price. Learn how markets move sir. Then you have to factor in the newcomers, coming in and buying bitcoin because they heard/saw on tv that another company is accepting bitcoin(dell, expedia etc etc). That causes the price to Rise.

PS: I loled when you said the companies coming in are the Supply, please go RESEARCH before making stupid comments, thanks.

No...

As adoption by companies goes up the supply of places to use BTC goes up. As users of BTC go up the demand goes up. Right now we are in a massive company sweep, where more and more companies are accepting BTC. The "supply" of companies accepting BTC is far outweighing the "demand" for using said BTC.


In other words when looking at a rough supply/demand chart, US, the PEOPLE, are the demand. The companies are the supply. There is TOO MUCH supply coming in vs demand coming in, to make the price go up right now.

That is the most simplistic I can explain that. I vote to sticky this please so we can stop talking about it until tons of people are using btc. k thx.

So I seen we've climbed overall from around $400 to $600 with bitcoin, then stopped at around $600. If it repeats, then we should be at $800 soon enough.