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Topic: Bitcoin BULL/Rally Forming? (Read 3550 times)

STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
August 15, 2014, 10:10:56 PM
#46
I dont see how merchants could be bad because the bitcoin has to be in the hands of people buying before anyone can be selling it back to market.   There arent any extra coins now produced because a company offers a product for sale in bitcoin.   Ive had plenty offers to sell my bitcoin for cash so why is a new product going to create less demand to hold bitcoins, Im not sure I get that one really.


So I seen we've climbed overall from around $400 to $600 with bitcoin, then stopped at around $600. If it repeats, then we should be at $800 soon enough.
Cant judge on price alone, I think that would be a mistake.  Price alone represents demand on one particular day perhaps and its an open market anyone can create a picture for one day.
The best thing to look at the volume of trading done today, then compare to various peaks like xmas and so on.   Is the volume greater on higher price or lower price.   

Right now Im not enthusiastic about a rise particularly, I need to see greater volume when price is rising.   The volume for that day that BTC gains then needs to be greater then a day the price fell and so on, that way we can speculate about rising numbers of held or stored bitcoin or greater demand even.
full member
Activity: 176
Merit: 100
August 15, 2014, 09:54:31 PM
#45
When bitcoin hit 600, it was a bull trap.

Expecting the price to hit 400 or lower in 2-3 weeks.

when price rebound from 400 to 900 that was a bull trap.

the overshoot to 680 and now crash back down to 500 is consolidation.

the big question isn't whether it drops lower, rough limits have been established and tested, you have to have some really distorted market view to think price can easily go much lower.

the question is will another 10X increase fallow this consolidation like every other time...

i've been hearing people say they don't expect 10X this time around, more like 3-5X.

i blame the normalcy bias....

price is gana go 100X this time, can no one see what happening in the world today?

COME ON PEOPLE!

how many times did you say to yourself, if they accept bitcoin this would be much easier, and benefit both me the buyer and them the seller.

now i'm going to figure out how to place an order on alibaba and send money to china without encountering a 25% fee from WU

fucking bank wires across borders, how do they work? and why do they cost so much?



Seems simple enough!

The price drop sentiment come from the fact that many bitcoin holders are the most gullible type of investors. Despite many large scale projects went bust and undelivered ASIC miners, bitcoin investors still pour large sum of bitcoin into something that is "pre-order" and "not complete" in nature.

The most recent such projects are "Neo and bee", which went bust; and Ethereum, which have technical and design issue on bloated blockchain that is still un-resolved.

IPO coins raised this way will eventually need to be sell on the market. If a 3-4k coin liquidation from Ethrerum crowd caused bitcoin to drop from around 600 to 490, imagine what will follow when they liquidate the entire bitcoin holding 20k+ btc in the coming months.

And if I am not mistaken, people still pouring in money to invest into Ethereum project, who know how many coin they will finally raised and subsequently sell.




sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Changing avatars is currently not possible.
August 14, 2014, 07:58:14 PM
#44
Fucking magnets (banks,prices,bitcoins) how do they work?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
August 14, 2014, 07:14:49 PM
#43
When bitcoin hit 600, it was a bull trap.

Expecting the price to hit 400 or lower in 2-3 weeks.

when price rebound from 400 to 900 that was a bull trap.

the overshoot to 680 and now crash back down to 500 is consolidation.

the big question isn't whether it drops lower, rough limits have been established and tested, you have to have some really distorted market view to think price can easily go much lower.

the question is will another 10X increase fallow this consolidation like every other time...

i've been hearing people say they don't expect 10X this time around, more like 3-5X.

i blame the normalcy bias....

price is gana go 100X this time, can no one see what happening in the world today?

COME ON PEOPLE!

how many times did you say to yourself, if they accept bitcoin this would be much easier, and benefit both me the buyer and them the seller.

now i'm going to figure out how to place an order on alibaba and send money to china without encountering a 25% fee from WU

fucking bank wires across borders, how do they work? and why do they cost so much?



Seems simple enough!
full member
Activity: 176
Merit: 100
August 14, 2014, 06:50:22 PM
#42
When bitcoin hit 600, it was a bull trap.

Expecting the price to hit 400 or lower in 2-3 weeks.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 14, 2014, 06:38:57 PM
#41
Seems like a drop off like this always happens before a rally, I wouldnt be surprised if were back over $600 soon.

you said it brother. obvious bear trap is obvious lol  Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 14, 2014, 06:37:46 PM
#40
bahahaha!  Iluvpie60 thinks that companies accepting Bitcoin are increasing the supply of Bitcoin

 Cheesy

It appears basic economics was thrown right out the window of the WTC7 Penthouse

 Shocked

Quote me where I said that. L2 read.

he thinks the companies are the supply. he's using supply in a very different way than the typical supply(money)demand(want for da moneys) analogy. supply in his scenario is what we call selling pressure. he's not really wrong its just a misunderstanding
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
August 14, 2014, 06:23:43 PM
#39
So I seen we've climbed overall from around $400 to $600 with bitcoin, then stopped at around $600. If it repeats, then we should be at $800 soon enough.

No...

As adoption by companies goes up the supply of places to use BTC goes up. As users of BTC go up the demand goes up. Right now we are in a massive company sweep, where more and more companies are accepting BTC. The "supply" of companies accepting BTC is far outweighing the "demand" for using said BTC.


In other words when looking at a rough supply/demand chart, US, the PEOPLE, are the demand. The companies are the supply. There is TOO MUCH supply coming in vs demand coming in, to make the price go up right now.

That is the most simplistic I can explain that. I vote to sticky this please so we can stop talking about it until tons of people are using btc. k thx.

Lol, What you've said truly makes no sense....Do you know how this all even works?

Ok, I'll give you the run down.

Someone buys Bitcoin

They use that Bitcoin to buy something on Overstock.com

Overstock sells the bitcoin for usd after that Person has bought w/e


There, The person buying the bitcoin, and Overstock selling the bitcoin cancel each other out, so it has No effect on the price. Learn how markets move sir. Then you have to factor in the newcomers, coming in and buying bitcoin because they heard/saw on tv that another company is accepting bitcoin(dell, expedia etc etc). That causes the price to Rise.


PS: I loled when you said the companies coming in are the Supply, please go RESEARCH before making stupid comments, thanks.
And in the other way i think that the people who spent their btcs on a merchant , he should had spent it anyway if there wasnt that merchant. This merchant selloff will only last  few days.. people buying things with btc cant drive the price down.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
August 14, 2014, 06:16:27 PM
#38
I hope we can see 1000 again this year
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1001
August 14, 2014, 04:15:12 PM
#37
There are not enough places to spend Bitcoin which causes consumers to not want it, but companies won't accept it until enough people use it. We are slowly breaking down this barrier.

You can already spend bitcoin on amazon, target, cvs, and other places through gyft.com and save 0.5-1% compared to paying the usual way (credit card, assuming 1% cash back from cc, compared to 3% rewards gyft gives). So there's definitely places to spend it and a good reason to use it. The problem is that it's still a couple extra steps and a huge pain in the ass. But you are exactly right: we are slowly breaking down the barrier. Just a matter of time (even if it's a long time!)
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
August 14, 2014, 03:33:07 PM
#36
Seems like a drop off like this always happens before a rally, I wouldnt be surprised if were back over $600 soon.
legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1003
August 14, 2014, 01:32:37 PM
#35
Although it is true that more companies accepting Bitcoin can, in the short term, exert downward pressure on price (because companies tend to sell Bitcoin they receive), it's a bullish signal long term because it increases the utility of Bitcoin as a currency.

I used to believe that too. In reality, it's just an outlet for long time holders to spend their bitcoins somewhere without the hassle of paying fees or finding buyers to cash out. Bitcoiners begged merchants to accept their money, and smart companies listened.

Checking out with bitcoin is quick (I've done it myself a few times), but to anyone outside our little bitcoin community, it's nothing more than a novelty. Nobody is buying bitcoins for the first time to use them at Overstock. They buy them to make money...

The one thing we had going for it was that the price would rise every year in dramatic fashion. It looks like those days may be over now that there are several channels to spend bitcoin (so much easier to offload... not so much hoarding) and there are even methods to short bitcoin now.

I believe the end of May was actually our "bubble" for this year, but for the reasons mentioned above, it tapered off before any serious action occurred. This will probably be the new normal as we gradually drop in price over the coming months/years.


The biggest barrier to entry into the Bitcoin "network" (not the actual network, but the network of people using it) is its small size. There are not enough places to spend Bitcoin which causes consumers to not want it, but companies won't accept it until enough people use it. We are slowly breaking down this barrier.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 253
August 13, 2014, 11:00:54 AM
#34
Although it is true that more companies accepting Bitcoin can, in the short term, exert downward pressure on price (because companies tend to sell Bitcoin they receive), it's a bullish signal long term because it increases the utility of Bitcoin as a currency.

I used to believe that too. In reality, it's just an outlet for long time holders to spend their bitcoins somewhere without the hassle of paying fees or finding buyers to cash out. Bitcoiners begged merchants to accept their money, and smart companies listened.

Checking out with bitcoin is quick (I've done it myself a few times), but to anyone outside our little bitcoin community, it's nothing more than a novelty. Nobody is buying bitcoins for the first time to use them at Overstock. They buy them to make money...

The one thing we had going for it was that the price would rise every year in dramatic fashion. It looks like those days may be over now that there are several channels to spend bitcoin (so much easier to offload... not so much hoarding) and there are even methods to short bitcoin now.

I believe the end of May was actually our "bubble" for this year, but for the reasons mentioned above, it tapered off before any serious action occurred. This will probably be the new normal as we gradually drop in price over the coming months/years.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
August 13, 2014, 10:47:50 AM
#33
So I seen we've climbed overall from around $400 to $600 with bitcoin, then stopped at around $600. If it repeats, then we should be at $800 soon enough.

Define soon. I think we might see $800 in Fall the earliest, not before. Too much selling pressure and bearish sentiment an the moment.



Well just imagine the bitcoin ETF gets listed tomorrow.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 1313
August 13, 2014, 10:35:28 AM
#32
I agree.  More places to spend ==> more usage ==> more acceptance.  In theory that should mean a higher fiat price baring other negative factors.  I think we've seen that over the past 4 years, even the past 2 years.

One point of note is that we are now more than half way to the next reward halving (spring/summer 2016 depending on how quickly mining power is added during that period). At some point in the next 24 months people will realize that the mining subsidy (new bitcoin supply) is about to drop by half and at that point there will be more interest in obtaining coins prior to it doing so.  Whether that will occur quite a while before the halving, shortly before or shortly thereafter I do not know.  But once the awareness that the new supply will be cut in half I believe that it will have a significant impact on the fiat price of bitcoin as it did in the past (along with many other factors, including usage and acceptance of course).

I think that with the larger awareness of bitcoin now as compared to fall of 2012, people will realize earlier the implications of the reward halving and so we'll see a good spike prior to that.  Given that it appears that right now with the current block reward we are at a short-term equilibrium in fiat pricing, cutting the new supply in half will have a large impact on fiat pricing as long as usage continues to grow (or even possibly remains constant).



bahahaha!  Iluvpie60 thinks that companies accepting Bitcoin are increasing the supply of Bitcoin

 Cheesy

It appears basic economics was thrown right out the window of the WTC7 Penthouse

 Shocked

Quote me where I said that. L2 read.

nice edit to add the words "places to use". just a shame for you that we seen the pre-edit with our own eyes.
Quote
In other words when looking at a rough supply/demand chart, US, the PEOPLE, are the demand. The companies are the supply. There is TOO MUCH supply coming in vs demand coming in, to make the price go up right now.

care to edit the part highlighted in red too?

You took that out of context, read everything in order and then it flows. You can't just take that part out because then it makes it "seem like" I am saying companies are the supply of bitcoin(which i didnt). The reason I worded it that way is because companies do not demand bitcoin, they supply products which are paid for in a nominal value such as monetary or crytpo, which is then implies bitcoin is the demand in the aforementioned example.



iluvpie60 appears to be playing word acrobatics to obfuscate things.
I'm not saying he's a troll or a shill, but if it's the case that he is speaking his mind from a genuine disposition, than he simply just doesn't have any foundation whatsoever in basic economics.

OK, So that there is NO FURTHER CONFUSION.  This is what iluvpie60
states in his own exact words, completely in context.


"Are you joking or are you actually this confused? We are not talking about the supply of BTC keeping the price at X. We are talking about the Supply of companies accepting the Demand of BTC keeping the price at x."

and

"You need to improve your reading comprehension. There is too much supply so price of BTC has been going down. There are too many places to spend the BTC compared to the people willing to spend the BTC(demand)."

 Roll Eyes

So iluvpie60 is clearly declaring in all of his infinite wisdom that since there are more places to spend Bitcoin than people willing to spend than the price of bitcoin goes down.


OK, let's use another financial asset to state the equivalent.  Let's use Gold.  And let's say that there is X amount of companies who are wiling to accept Gold for their products and services and Y amount of Gold owners
who are willing to spend Gold.  

If X (Amount of companies/people who want Gold (at least as a means of exchange) and are thus willing to accept Gold) is Greater than Y (the number of people who are willing to spend Gold) How can any sane person state that the price of Gold is going to go down??

In both examples, there are less people wiling to spend an asset than there are people who would otherwise be willing to accept it for trade.  

THEREFORE, Price must go up

So why is the price of bitcoin going down?  Markets go up, markets go down, there could be a plethora of reasons why, but none of which have anything to do with reasons thus stated by iluvpie60
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
August 12, 2014, 07:56:59 PM
#31
OP, this is a clown topic bro. Enough with the sock puppet accounts backing up your statement.

What I luv hippies is trying to say is the volume of BTC conversions to FIAT will increase as more merchants accept BTC as a form of payment. BTC is too volatile for any reputable business to hold long term as a store of value. This process causes too much supply and not enough demand unless new people learn about BTC and purchase BTC at the rate it's being dumped.

legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1003
August 12, 2014, 07:40:57 PM
#30
So I seen we've climbed overall from around $400 to $600 with bitcoin, then stopped at around $600. If it repeats, then we should be at $800 soon enough.

No...

As adoption by companies goes up the supply of places to use BTC goes up. As users of BTC go up the demand goes up. Right now we are in a massive company sweep, where more and more companies are accepting BTC. The "supply" of companies accepting BTC is far outweighing the "demand" for using said BTC.


In other words when looking at a rough supply/demand chart, US, the PEOPLE, are the demand. The companies are the supply. There is TOO MUCH supply coming in vs demand coming in, to make the price go up right now.

That is the most simplistic I can explain that. I vote to sticky this please so we can stop talking about it until tons of people are using btc. k thx.

Although it is true that more companies accepting Bitcoin can, in the short term, exert downward pressure on price (because companies tend to sell Bitcoin they receive), it's a bullish signal long term because it increases the utility of Bitcoin as a currency.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 503
August 12, 2014, 07:17:28 PM
#29
you are probably right
we are in summer,low volume time,easy to manipulate
i think we will see a rebound in the next after summer months
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1009
August 12, 2014, 04:33:19 PM
#28
I think we are in a danger position.

Most radicals hodlers have the faith that the Bitcoin's price increase, if it won't happen they and the people they managed to convince may get tired and just sell their bitcoins.

Also if we lose the 550's level, there is no reason to believe that we will stop before the 400's(see the Bitstamp's 1 day chart and agree with me).
I would wait until we see sub 600 prices in the Bitstamp and in the BTC-e, or a break in the 650's level, to call it buy-ish, because we would be in the opposite of the current situation(aka: good scenario: prices rise, bad scenario, we don't fall neither rise. Now good scenario: we don't plunge to 400's, bad scenario: we plunge to 400's)
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 500
Time is on our side, yes it is!
August 12, 2014, 04:19:23 PM
#27
I'm liking where everybody speculates the price to go but I just think we should beware the unexpected and not act as if it is a foregone conclusion. 
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