Bitcoin - Bulls out of the wedge but without force

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 20, 2014, 08:32:44 AM

Quote from: chessnut on January 20, 2014, 08:13:16 AM

Historically speaking, bitcoin can easily take out a few hundred dollars when nobody expects it. just need one unexpected news release.
I really hope it goes your way mate but please have a plan B, and dont risk too much.

No you don't, cos that would mean the value of your own holdings going down.

Anytime that Bitcoin has risen a couple of hundred dollars, nobody has been expecting it much because Bitcoin had been trending within a certain range for quite some period of time prior to run up. Now we are at the wrong side of a bubble/crash event, whenever resistance prices are approached the exchanges are met with a big increase in BTC for sale which pushes prices back down, with each resistance level falling short of the last.

It is an out and out bearish scenario, although there is still always going to plenty upside phases and any bear who bets short during these phases will get their asses handed to them on a plate, as I discovered. Next stop is another crash and bounce at $765, or we drop through this support and fall right down to low $700s. I shall set my short position to close at $765 level (which may be a sure sign that things will fall much lower next time around).

YES I DO!
bulls win, bears win, pigs get slaughtered! I hodl for the long run, you short in the short run, every thing is fine.
and if you want my opinion, it is far from certain that we will see another bubble/crash. have you been talking to proudhon? $850 is cheeeep! its a bloody bitcoin how can you say thats expensive?

ampere9765

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: GigaCoin on January 20, 2014, 06:34:20 AM

no cheap coins for bears

we are a patient species

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: notme on January 20, 2014, 11:36:39 AM

Maybe if you would stop and consider some of the advice you have been given instead of knee-jerk fighting every tip you receive (which serves strengthens your preconceived conclusions) you wouldn't have to lose money in the exact same way half of us have..... Or you can continue to play with shorting BTC short term. It will either work out eventually, or you will lose all you can afford and leave. Either way, the problem is solved, from my point of view. It's just that, personally, I prefer to keep an open mind and reevaluate my opinions frequently rather than being consistently oppositional.

Most of the 'advice' I have been given on here would have seen me seriously underwater.

I may be a bit rash, reactionary, and head strong, but by listening to me instead of 'them', I have stayed well in the black throughout these seriously volatile times (I had about 23 BTC coins bought $1100 level which I was advised to 'hold' or cry when I buy them back at $1300).

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 20, 2014, 08:32:44 AM

Quote from: chessnut on January 20, 2014, 08:13:16 AM

Historically speaking, bitcoin can easily take out a few hundred dollars when nobody expects it. just need one unexpected news release.
I really hope it goes your way mate but please have a plan B, and dont risk too much.

No you don't, cos that would mean the value of your own holdings going down.

Anytime that Bitcoin has risen a couple of hundred dollars, nobody has been expecting it much because Bitcoin had been trending within a certain range for quite some period of time prior to run up. Now we are at the wrong side of a bubble/crash event, whenever resistance prices are approached the exchanges are met with a big increase in BTC for sale which pushes prices back down, with each resistance level falling short of the last.

It is an out and out bearish scenario, although there is still always going to plenty upside phases and any bear who bets short during these phases will get their asses handed to them on a plate, as I discovered. Next stop is another crash and bounce at $765, or we drop through this support and fall right down to low $700s. I shall set my short position to close at $765 level (which may be a sure sign that things will fall much lower next time around).

Maybe if you would stop and consider some of the advice you have been given instead of knee-jerk fighting every tip you receive (which serves strengthens your preconceived conclusions) you wouldn't have to lose money in the exact same way half of us have..... Or you can continue to play with shorting BTC short term. It will either work out eventually, or you will lose all you can afford and leave. Either way, the problem is solved, from my point of view. It's just that, personally, I prefer to keep an open mind and reevaluate my opinions frequently rather than being consistently oppositional.

Lusitanian Trader

member

Activity: 77

Merit: 10

Quote from: Milotyc on January 20, 2014, 06:38:10 AM

This guy keeps drawing pointless lines just to promote his website. Starting to be annoying :/

Do not like, do not read!

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: chessnut on January 20, 2014, 08:13:16 AM

Historically speaking, bitcoin can easily take out a few hundred dollars when nobody expects it. just need one unexpected news release.
I really hope it goes your way mate but please have a plan B, and dont risk too much.

No you don't, cos that would mean the value of your own holdings going down.

Anytime that Bitcoin has risen a couple of hundred dollars, nobody has been expecting it much because Bitcoin had been trending within a certain range for quite some period of time prior to run up. Now we are at the wrong side of a bubble/crash event, whenever resistance prices are approached the exchanges are met with a big increase in BTC for sale which pushes prices back down, with each resistance level falling short of the last.

It is an out and out bearish scenario, although there is still always going to plenty upside phases and any bear who bets short during these phases will get their asses handed to them on a plate, as I discovered. Next stop is another crash and bounce at $765, or we drop through this support and fall right down to low $700s. I shall set my short position to close at $765 level (which may be a sure sign that things will fall much lower next time around).

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Historically speaking, bitcoin can easily take out a few hundred dollars when nobody expects it. just need one unexpected news release.
I really hope it goes your way mate but please have a plan B, and dont risk too much.

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: chessnut on January 20, 2014, 06:44:22 AM

I think most scalpers are looking long tonight, the chart is telling me long. sure, $850 is expensive but its all relative and markets are irrational. I think the most important thing anyone going short can possibly do right now is have a damn good exit strategy, when will you assume long term bullish again? when it passes $900? $1000? $1100?

Speaking admittedly as someone who believed that the $765 support would be broken at the weekend, and who lost a few hundred dollars betting on it, I really really do not see how on earth anyone could believe that $850 is going to be taken out anytime soon.

We have just had a spike of buying power that pushed the price up to just short of this important resistance level, at which point the whole momentum farted out. Three times, we have tested this range and three times buying volume fizzled out at this price point. Surely this is as bearish a signal as it gets?

Edit: And I notice that Huobi has started selling off as well, pushing my short bet $100 into the green! Just another $30 drop to go and I break even from my weekend follies.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 20, 2014, 06:22:59 AM

Quote from: chessnut on January 19, 2014, 09:59:12 PM

agreed 100%. if you are angry at the market, youre doing it wrong. "emotions will ruin your profits" - also, profits will ruin your emotions.
its a sport, an art, it will take years of practise and failure before you get it.

I woulds say I controlled my emotions rather well. Yup, I backed the wrong pony and have lost money but managed to avoid succumbing to the greatest emotional temptation, namely jumping sides at the 11th hour. Had I done this then I would have went long in the first instance at $830 (leaving me with $15 of upside) and in the second instance at $840, leaving me with $5 of possible upside....just enough to cover the exchange fees should I have bailed from the market with perfect timing as now that the upsurge has fizzled out yet again short of the previous resistance level ($850) only the most deluded bull would try to convince themselves that Bitcoin was looking like a good investment at these prices.

Currently sitting right on the price at which I placed my latest short bet so I am still treading water on that one, but if I never thought that we would see a good few days of sideways trending, then I would extend my short position here in a flash, as there is clearly just not the volume to support Bitcoin at resistance breaking prices.

I think most scalpers are looking long tonight, the chart is telling me long. sure, $850 is expensive but its all relative and markets are irrational. I think the most important thing anyone going short can possibly do right now is have a damn good exit strategy, when will you assume long term bullish again? when it passes $900? $1000? $1100?

Milotyc

newbie

Activity: 39

Merit: 0

This guy keeps drawing pointless lines just to promote his website. Starting to be annoying :/

GigaCoin

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 251

Giga

no cheap coins for bears

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: chessnut on January 19, 2014, 09:59:12 PM

agreed 100%. if you are angry at the market, youre doing it wrong. "emotions will ruin your profits" - also, profits will ruin your emotions.
its a sport, an art, it will take years of practise and failure before you get it.

I woulds say I controlled my emotions rather well. Yup, I backed the wrong pony and have lost money but managed to avoid succumbing to the greatest emotional temptation, namely jumping sides at the 11th hour. Had I done this then I would have went long in the first instance at $830 (leaving me with $15 of upside) and in the second instance at $840, leaving me with $5 of possible upside....just enough to cover the exchange fees should I have bailed from the market with perfect timing as now that the upsurge has fizzled out yet again short of the previous resistance level ($850) only the most deluded bull would try to convince themselves that Bitcoin was looking like a good investment at these prices.

Currently sitting right on the price at which I placed my latest short bet so I am still treading water on that one, but if I never thought that we would see a good few days of sideways trending, then I would extend my short position here in a flash, as there is clearly just not the volume to support Bitcoin at resistance breaking prices.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Miz4r on January 19, 2014, 09:18:03 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 19, 2014, 07:16:13 PM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 19, 2014, 07:12:43 PM

Give up the idea of doubling your investment in days. Think about Bitcoin's long-term potential and the long-term potential of an investment: I mean 1 year +, which really isn't very long practically-speaking. Then you can forget about daily price moves. Even if it goes down for a week that doesn't matter. Just keep an eye on the bigger picture - read about the technology, follow the political stuff. As long as Bitcoin remains technologically sound and legal in at least a few countries then there is much more room for adoption and innovation around the system.

EDIT: and mentally write off any losses once you decide to go long for the long-term. It's what you pay for learning this particular game!

I do believe in Bitcoin's long term potential, but in the short term, I think Bitcoin is away to get fucked up the arse and I don't want my arse to get fucked alongside it.

If I am wrong, then I am a big idiot who misses out on loads of upside, just like I have already missed out the chance to be a Bitcoin millionaire....but still, there is always the day job.

EDIT: Having resigned myself to mourning my losses as my stop-loss buy-ins came within a ball hair of being triggered, it looks like Bitcoin is going into freefall across all exchanges!!!

YAAA FKN HOO!

Don't count your chickens before the eggs have hatched. Tongue

Hope you covered your short before the price went back up. You are by far the most emotional trader I have ever seen. You should really chill out and take a step back and look at your trades from a distance. Emotions will ruin your profits

agreed 100%. if you are angry at the market, youre doing it wrong. "emotions will ruin your profits" - also, profits will ruin your emotions.
its a sport, an art, it will take years of practise and failure before you get it.

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Miz4r on January 19, 2014, 09:18:03 PM

Don't count your chickens before the eggs have hatched. Tongue

Hope you covered your short before the price went back up. You are by far the most emotional trader I have ever seen. You should really chill out and take a step back and look at your trades from a distance. Emotions will ruin your profits

Yup.....that niggling feeling has got me up out my bed and right enough, the highs have been retested as has my stop loss order...just raised my stop losses a bit.....would be nothing worse than to wake up tomorrow to find that they have been triggered only for Bitcoin to have then heavily corrected, which it looks very likely to do.

Of course, if Bitcoin does smash through the resistance level, then I lose a few more bucks, but I have already lost loads this weekend anyways so a few more pennies won't hurt.

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 19, 2014, 07:16:13 PM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 19, 2014, 07:12:43 PM

Give up the idea of doubling your investment in days. Think about Bitcoin's long-term potential and the long-term potential of an investment: I mean 1 year +, which really isn't very long practically-speaking. Then you can forget about daily price moves. Even if it goes down for a week that doesn't matter. Just keep an eye on the bigger picture - read about the technology, follow the political stuff. As long as Bitcoin remains technologically sound and legal in at least a few countries then there is much more room for adoption and innovation around the system.

EDIT: and mentally write off any losses once you decide to go long for the long-term. It's what you pay for learning this particular game!

I do believe in Bitcoin's long term potential, but in the short term, I think Bitcoin is away to get fucked up the arse and I don't want my arse to get fucked alongside it.

If I am wrong, then I am a big idiot who misses out on loads of upside, just like I have already missed out the chance to be a Bitcoin millionaire....but still, there is always the day job.

EDIT: Having resigned myself to mourning my losses as my stop-loss buy-ins came within a ball hair of being triggered, it looks like Bitcoin is going into freefall across all exchanges!!!

YAAA FKN HOO!

Don't count your chickens before the eggs have hatched. Tongue

Hope you covered your short before the price went back up. You are by far the most emotional trader I have ever seen. You should really chill out and take a step back and look at your trades from a distance. Emotions will ruin your profits

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 19, 2014, 07:12:43 PM

Give up the idea of doubling your investment in days. Think about Bitcoin's long-term potential and the long-term potential of an investment: I mean 1 year +, which really isn't very long practically-speaking. Then you can forget about daily price moves. Even if it goes down for a week that doesn't matter. Just keep an eye on the bigger picture - read about the technology, follow the political stuff. As long as Bitcoin remains technologically sound and legal in at least a few countries then there is much more room for adoption and innovation around the system.

EDIT: and mentally write off any losses once you decide to go long for the long-term. It's what you pay for learning this particular game!

I do believe in Bitcoin's long term potential, but in the short term, I think Bitcoin is away to get fucked up the arse and I don't want my arse to get fucked alongside it.

If I am wrong, then I am a big idiot who misses out on loads of upside, just like I have already missed out the chance to be a Bitcoin millionaire....but still, there is always the day job.

EDIT: Having resigned myself to mourning my losses as my stop-loss buy-ins came within a ball hair of being triggered, it looks like Bitcoin is going into freefall across all exchanges!!!

YAAA FKN HOO!

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 19, 2014, 07:02:03 PM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 19, 2014, 06:55:18 PM

Quote from: Lusitanian Trader on January 19, 2014, 06:52:19 PM

It can be a trap for the Bulls Wink

I'm afraid that really is just wishful thinking.

Yep, it would be. Huobi has popped right through its previous high and looks like it will go through roof.

I have done fucking horrendously this weekend, my first weekend of trying to short Bitcoin.

It might well be outrageously manipulated but I feel quite disgusted at being on the wrong side of the trade the whole weekend. Since I can't seem to get anything right I shall not be jumping sides and joining the upside crew, cos all that will happen if I do is that it will stop shy of $850 when I am in my bed and fkn plummet wiping out half my capital.

2nd worst Bitcoin investment experience ever.

despite appealing short opportunities in bitcoin, I have always been scared to death shorting anything that has a such limited supply. bears are sooo easy to trap in bitcoin, when price is projected to 10,000, 100,000 etc.

yeah it could be a bull trap Wink

but the bears might get more than they bargain for.

T.Stuart

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

One Token to Move Anything Anywhere

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 19, 2014, 07:02:03 PM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 19, 2014, 06:55:18 PM

Quote from: Lusitanian Trader on January 19, 2014, 06:52:19 PM

It can be a trap for the Bulls Wink

I'm afraid that really is just wishful thinking.

Yep, it would be. Huobi has popped right through its previous high and looks like it will go through roof.

I have done fucking horrendously this weekend, my first weekend of trying to short Bitcoin.

It might well be outrageously manipulated but I feel quite disgusted at being on the wrong side of the trade the whole weekend. Since I can't seem to get anything right I shall not be jumping sides and joining the upside crew, cos all that will happen if I do is that it will stop shy of $850 when I am in my bed and fkn plummet wiping out half my capital.

2nd worst Bitcoin investment experience ever.

Give up the idea of doubling your investment in days. Think about Bitcoin's long-term potential and the long-term potential of an investment: I mean 1 year +, which really isn't very long practically-speaking. Then you can forget about daily price moves. Even if it goes down for a week that doesn't matter. Just keep an eye on the bigger picture - read about the technology, follow the political stuff. As long as Bitcoin remains technologically sound and legal in at least a few countries then there is much more room for adoption and innovation around the system.

EDIT: and mentally write off any losses once you decide to go long for the long-term. It's what you pay for learning this particular game!

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 19, 2014, 06:55:18 PM

Quote from: Lusitanian Trader on January 19, 2014, 06:52:19 PM

It can be a trap for the Bulls Wink

I'm afraid that really is just wishful thinking.

Yep, it would be. Huobi has popped right through its previous high and looks like it will go through roof.

I have done fucking horrendously this weekend, my first weekend of trying to short Bitcoin.

It might well be outrageously manipulated but I feel quite disgusted at being on the wrong side of the trade the whole weekend. Since I can't seem to get anything right I shall not be jumping sides and joining the upside crew, cos all that will happen if I do is that it will stop shy of $850 when I am in my bed and fkn plummet wiping out half my capital.

2nd worst Bitcoin investment experience ever.

T.Stuart

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

One Token to Move Anything Anywhere

Quote from: Lusitanian Trader on January 19, 2014, 06:52:19 PM

It can be a trap for the Bulls Wink

I'm afraid that really is just wishful thinking.

Topic: Bitcoin - Bulls out of the wedge but without force (Read 1843 times)