Topic: Bitcoin could be worth 100x more than today. - page 3. (Read 6688 times)

40 000$; seems possible.

The Winklevoss brothers have a vested interest as they hold large stocks of Bitcoin, previously quoted to be 1% of Bitcoins, and have opened a fund around it, and so they would be expected to be bullish on Bitcoin. Success in their fund and personal net worth depends on them convincing others to invest in their dream.  For them the sky is the limit, and a Bitcoin has potential to be worth $40,000 or more.  It would be surprising if they did not have this attitude.

Now ask a a banker being asked by a miner to underwrite a proposal to build a datacentre of equipment containing new HashFast Sierras. The lender may appear to be prudent in using the current value of Bitcoins and then quartering it or quadrupling it, say from $400 to $100, or $400 to $1,600, over a year to examine the project probable outcomes.

The reality in the long term is somewhere in the middle, where the price of Bitcoins is given as:

   PRICE = TRANSACTIONS VALUE + INVESTMENT VALUE

Examples of positive forces would be if Ebay or Amazon incorporated Bitcoin into their processing system, then the Transaction Value will be enormous.  By further example of a positive influence would be if the Chinese were to hold more Bitcoins than ounces of Gold as a store of savings, then the Investment Value would be be massive.

Against this is are politicians running governments feeling a need to take a stance against Bitcoins due to the advantage it offers for hiding the identities of perpetrators of blackmail, such as Bitcoin payment extorted to recover your files on computer.  There are also hackers waiting to take any means to steal other persons Bitcoins, such as the exploit on android phones they used to empty phone wallet.

No one can predict the future price of Bitcoins, however when listening to predictions try to discover the vested interest of the soothsayer.  Is it a dodgy manager at Butterfly Labs wanting you to upgrade rather than cancel your 12 month old pre-order who talks of Bitcoin in the thousands, or is it someone posting on this forum how wonderful and profitable their equipment may become if Bitcoin soars as hidden to members they are actually selling their uneconomical equipment on Ebay.

shouldn't all net worth be covered by currency? i know the calculation you are trying to do, cause i'd like to do it also, but i'm not sure how.  i think the number should be higher than what you put forth though.

"The net worth of the United States and its economic sectors has remained relatively consistent over time. The total net worth of the United States remained between 4.5 and 6 times GDP from 1960 until the 2000s, when it rose as high as 6.64 times GDP in 2006, principally due to an increase in the net worth of US households in the midst of the United States housing bubble. The net worth of the United States sharply declined to 5.2 times GDP by the end of 2008 due to declines in the values of US corporate equities and real estate in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2009, the net worth of US households had recovered from a low of 3.55 times GDP to 3.75 times GDP, while nonfinancial business fell from 1.37 times GDP to 1.22 times GDP.[7]"

I'd rather see some other country adopt Bitcoin than Cyprus.

But doesn't a country require that its currency covers at least its GDP?

GDP is an annual number.  it has nothing to do with the net amount of value, or currency, in existence in Cyprus.  so, i think your logic is wrong.

Because that is always how things with limited supply work. 

 

That's wrong. It will fly up.

Why would the value drop if it goes mainstream?

This is how they will trick you to sell now, and then it hits $10,000. 

Ohhhh how they tricked me into selling at $2 lol

I would be happy to see 1000$ for bitcoin, but even that is 2 much. The moment when it goes mainstream the value will drop.

Yes that looks very feasible to achieve

If they run off with everyone's money or the ETF drops off the exchange don't say I didn't warn you, seems like a fine way to syphon BTC off unsuspecting investors.

I think I'll hold my coins until their ETF comes out.  That sounds like a lot of 401k and IRA money coming into bitcoin very quickly (including about 25% of my 401k and IRAs).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Cyprus

The GDP of Cyprus is $23 billion.  If it switched from the Euro to Bitcoin and if it could magically get all 12 million Bitcoin that have ever been minted, each Bitcoin would be worth about $1900.

Of course they could not get all the Bitcoin that have already been minted.  Its likely that they would struggle to get even half of the Bitcoin in circulation.  So each Bitcoin would then be worth $3800.

Now that assumes that the Cypriots acquire the Bitcoin secretly.  If its done transparently, everyone else will be buying Bitcoin as well and we can assume that the price would at least triple.  So each Bitcoin would be worth $11,400.

Cyprus is a tiny bankrupt island that is half occupied by a foreign army.  If Bitcoin adoption in such a small place shoves the value up so much, its hard to reckon what a mainstream adoption would mean in a major economy.  An increase of 100 times is small beer.  We are sitting on the greatest investment vehicle ever minted.

It could be worth 100x more one day. But there's no guarantee behind this. They're all just speculations 

My question is, what keeps BTC from breaking the Us$400 threshold? I noticed it bumps up and down around that value

When btc was less than a cent, people thought it would never reach $1. When it was $1 they said that it would never pass $10 and so goes the story, everytime.

Yes, I agree that "10000 is too much for one coin" argument is very weak. And flys in the face of all evidence to date. It is all about perceived present and future value. I have no certainty as to what we will think is fair value for a "coin" in 5 years. (I'm questimating at the moment $25,000/BTC in today's dollars.) What's FB worth? Or twitter? or Apple, or anything that used to be worth nothing and is now valued at astronomical prices? We will pay/exchange what we think it is worth - as always.