Bitcoin Detailed Calculator | Bitcointalksearch.org

danhu

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

a more complex bitcoin profitability calculator here
using average of the last 15 difficulty increments . based on past difficulty developments to predict future difficulty . automatic adjust when difficulty adjust .

http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php

Ben Walsh (beamer)

sr. member

Activity: 343

Merit: 250

BUMP

I have update the URL I am using for the current difficulty and the way the JSON for exchange rate is parsed - suitable values should now be provided by default.

Unfortunately, the replacement provided by blockchain.info for the blockexplorer q API has no nethash method so the functionality utilising that has been discontinued for the time being. If someone knows of a suitable replacement for that URL, let me know and I will add it back.

pokwer

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

I understand the formula, just not sure it's realistic to project the difficulty going that high unless you count on amazing new mining hardware coming to market and/or a massive increase in BTC value. Even at $100/BTC a 1.2Gh/s rig starts costing more in electricity than it mines in less than 130 days.

Ben Walsh (beamer)

sr. member

Activity: 343

Merit: 250

Absolutely. As stated that is a calculation based on all previous difficulty changes.

You might find this useful - http://www.google.com/ig/directory?url=pastehtml.com/view/b1cx89lyr.html

As you can see, only the last 3 difficulty changes are significantly statistically different from the historical average.

I might well add a drop down next to difficulty change textbox, covering the options from the gadget, if there is sufficient demand for it.

Quote from: pokwer on July 31, 2011, 04:49:40 PM

Sooo, in a year the difficulty will be 62 billion?? That is quite high!

pokwer

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Sooo, in a year the difficulty will be 62 billion?? That is quite high!

Ben Walsh (beamer)

sr. member

Activity: 343

Merit: 250

Bump

Ben Walsh (beamer)

sr. member

Activity: 343

Merit: 250

I based on this https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=18485.0 and given the calculator is working on days ...

I will re-adjust over the coming months.

As ever this stuff is only ever going to be an estimate and I would far rather be pessimistic than give users high expectations.

Quote from: Sukrim on July 21, 2011, 07:13:52 PM

Quote from: KaptainBlaZzed on July 21, 2011, 06:43:24 PM

why do you increase the difficulty every 10 days, it should be every 14 days. Huh

It should be every 2016 blocks, how ever long that takes... Wink

DamienBlack

jr. member

Activity: 56

Merit: 1

Awesome. Thanks.

Sukrim

legendary

Activity: 2618

Merit: 1007

Quote from: KaptainBlaZzed on July 21, 2011, 06:43:24 PM

why do you increase the difficulty every 10 days, it should be every 14 days. Huh

It should be every 2016 blocks, how ever long that takes... Wink

KaptainBlaZzed

newbie

Activity: 100

Merit: 0

why do you increase the difficulty every 10 days, it should be every 14 days. Huh

gnaget

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 102

Why would you have the difficulty increase, but not have a corresponding price increase?

I would recommend you move away from the difficulty increase, and instead go to a resistance point on the price/difficulty ratio.. Take a look at this thread, for details:
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7427.80

I have written in there a bit about my take on it. The ratio defines the profitability of mining, and if it drops too low, then miners will bail out, due to lack of profits. Historically, the lowest the ratio has been is .8, which is where it is at now, and hopefully that is the real bottom.

Good job on the calculator. I also go for more detail

Ben Walsh (beamer)

sr. member

Activity: 343

Merit: 250

Cheers.

Forgot that had a semicolon too - seems my versions of both Firefox and Chrome tolerate it not being there.

Quote from: dserrano5 on July 21, 2011, 04:23:53 PM

You may want to append a semicolon after the 's Wink

.

dserrano5

legendary

Activity: 1974

Merit: 1029

You may want to append a semicolon after the 's Wink

.

Ben Walsh (beamer)

sr. member

Activity: 343

Merit: 250

Bump and request for feedback - either here or via [email protected]

Really impressed with the usage this is getting, hope you are all finding it useful.

Should have some free time this weekend to implement some suggestions.

Ben Walsh (beamer)

sr. member

Activity: 343

Merit: 250

Updated to provide regularly updated exchange rate and additional calculations of total USD return, electricity usage, electricity cost, total profit ...

geek-trader

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Much better than before. Nice work.

However, The next predicted difficulty is only 1.64M

I understand how you've calculated, but it would be cool if we could enter a difficulty % ourselves.

[edit] I'm blind. Its already there

Ben Walsh (beamer)

sr. member

Activity: 343

Merit: 250

Updated to provide an average difficulty change value which is regularly (it is actually every minute because I want to stress Google App Engine a little) calculated from all previous difficulties.

Also ...

Changed the interface to remove the scrolling problem.

Added graph - how useful are these ?

Added additional explanation text.

I am happy with the precision and will actually be increasing it as time progresses - I reckon my prediction is quite a bit better than giszmo thinks.

Keep the feedback coming all is useful, even the badly phrased stuff ;O)

giszmo

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1105

WalletScrutiny.com

yes, scrolling is broken. you can scroll by marking the text and within a certain range by using the mouse wheel.

@OP: total crap, sorry. so it defaults to 32% per what? day? 10 days? 2016 blocks? the output is also rather useless. If I hit calculate for 180 days I am not particularly interested in day #111. reduce the output to 10 lines at max. with something like: 1st week you will stay above 0.02BTC/day, 1st month above 0.015BTC/day .... and in the end you will have 0.532BTC. (there is no point in giving more than 3 digits precision. Neither for difficulty nor for results as I doubt you will achieve more than 1.5 digits precision at predicting the network growth rate.

geek-trader

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on July 10, 2011, 06:24:35 PM

Quote from: Ben Walsh (beamer) on July 10, 2011, 12:02:26 PM

adjusts for the current historic difficulty changes every 10 days for the number of days you request a report for.

This is excellent!

One problem I'm experiencing though is that when I pick a longer number of days, e.g., 180 days, I get a div that Chrome won't function with very well. I can't scroll up or down, for instance.

Me, too. Chrome on Mac

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: Ben Walsh (beamer) on July 10, 2011, 12:02:26 PM

adjusts for the current historic difficulty changes every 10 days for the number of days you request a report for.

This is excellent!

One problem I'm experiencing though is that when I pick a longer number of days, e.g., 180 days, I get a div that Chrome won't function with very well. I can't scroll up or down, for instance.

Topic: Bitcoin Detailed Calculator (Read 8223 times)