Bitcoin difficulty may actually go down in ~7 days! - page 6.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Katarina on July 08, 2014, 08:03:46 AM

This could be the difficulty increment for the rest of bitcoin life, time to buy asic!!

well eventually if asic's are the best way to mine. the watt per gh wall will be reached. for the sake of argument .2 watts per hash at this point in time growth will flatten off a lot.

in 200 day blocks of time .

the last 200 days growth was about 18%.

the 200 days before that about 24%.

the next 200 days growth will be under 18%.

my guess is 13-15%.

This jump is at .

btc wise >>>> 17,656
bitcoincharts>> 16,907

Total >>>>>>> 34,563

Avg >>>>>>>>> 17,281.5 or 2.76 percent jump with 686 blocks to go or 4.7 days

Katarina

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This could be the difficulty increment for the rest of bitcoin life, time to buy asic!!

ALToids

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Quote from: navigator on July 08, 2014, 01:25:52 AM

Quote from: ALToids on July 08, 2014, 01:22:55 AM

Quote from: navigator on July 08, 2014, 01:11:00 AM

Why do you think there would be a bump when bitmain delivers miners? The miners have already been turned on and factored into the difficulty. You can't add the hash twice.

Exactly how much do you think Bitmain is putting into the future contribution. Friedcat said he was shipping out 100PH/s worth of chips. That will be going online sometime in the next 4-6 weeks. Then there's the Neptunes, and any back alley shady deals BFL may put on. Bitfury....

I was commenting on what thejuice said.

"We will see a bump next diff increase with the new bitmain miners"

I'm saying there wont be a bump next dif increase because of bitmain miners.

My apologies. There will be a bump most likely, but it will probably not be from Bitmain. Either that or Bitmain is getting so many orders they'll be testing more batches Shocked

navigator

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Quote from: ALToids on July 08, 2014, 01:22:55 AM

Quote from: navigator on July 08, 2014, 01:11:00 AM

Why do you think there would be a bump when bitmain delivers miners? The miners have already been turned on and factored into the difficulty. You can't add the hash twice.

Exactly how much do you think Bitmain is putting into the future contribution. Friedcat said he was shipping out 100PH/s worth of chips. That will be going online sometime in the next 4-6 weeks. Then there's the Neptunes, and any back alley shady deals BFL may put on. Bitfury....

I was commenting on what thejuice said.

"We will see a bump next diff increase with the new bitmain miners"

I'm saying there wont be a bump next dif increase because of bitmain miners.

ALToids

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Quote from: navigator on July 08, 2014, 01:11:00 AM

Why do you think there would be a bump when bitmain delivers miners? The miners have already been turned on and factored into the difficulty. You can't add the hash twice.

Exactly how much do you think Bitmain is putting into the future contribution. Friedcat said he was shipping out 100PH/s worth of chips. That will be going online sometime in the next 4-6 weeks. Then there's the Neptunes, and any back alley shady deals BFL may put on. Bitfury....

navigator

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Why do you think there would be a bump when bitmain delivers miners? The miners have already been turned on and factored into the difficulty. You can't add the hash twice.

TheJuice

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Quote from: philipma1957 on July 07, 2014, 05:22:42 PM

Quote from: TheJuice on July 07, 2014, 05:01:40 PM

Quote from: RoadStress on July 06, 2014, 10:59:22 PM

Quote from: TheJuice link=topic=673267.msg7700815#msg7700815 dwite=1404647338

bitcoinwisdoms diff algos rely heavily of the previous change. Thus early on in an adjustment period it is basically saying the diff will inc by the prev amount. Right now my models show 2% increase.

This calls for a *Miner's Dance*!

Indeed. We will see a bump next diff increase with the new bitmain miners, but here's to hoping days of >10% increase are over!!

wisdom has us pegged at +5% at the next change. I still think this is a bit high.

btcwise says = 18,088
bitcoin charts = 16,906
Total = 34,994 / 2 = 17,497 which is 4.03 percent

we're at 9.8 min/block which is 2%.

Glizlack

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I can live with 2-5% increases compared to what we have been getting. I still think a lot of old equipment is getting retired and thats helping the difficulty this time. When the s3 hit en masse it will be interesting to see. I was suprised the knc didn't make more of a difference but i guess since they have allegedly been mining for months with them it would't make a difference if it was true.

Steve

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: TheJuice on July 07, 2014, 05:01:40 PM

Quote from: RoadStress on July 06, 2014, 10:59:22 PM

Quote from: TheJuice link=topic=673267.msg7700815#msg7700815 dwite=1404647338

bitcoinwisdoms diff algos rely heavily of the previous change. Thus early on in an adjustment period it is basically saying the diff will inc by the prev amount. Right now my models show 2% increase.

This calls for a *Miner's Dance*!

Indeed. We will see a bump next diff increase with the new bitmain miners, but here's to hoping days of >10% increase are over!!

wisdom has us pegged at +5% at the next change. I still think this is a bit high.

btcwise says = 18,088
bitcoin charts = 16,906
Total = 34,994 / 2 = 17,497 which is 4.03 percent

TheJuice

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Quote from: RoadStress on July 06, 2014, 10:59:22 PM

Quote from: TheJuice link=topic=673267.msg7700815#msg7700815 dwite=1404647338

bitcoinwisdoms diff algos rely heavily of the previous change. Thus early on in an adjustment period it is basically saying the diff will inc by the prev amount. Right now my models show 2% increase.

This calls for a *Miner's Dance*!

Indeed. We will see a bump next diff increase with the new bitmain miners, but here's to hoping days of >10% increase are over!!

wisdom has us pegged at +5% at the next change. I still think this is a bit high.

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: RoadStress on July 06, 2014, 10:59:22 PM

Quote from: TheJuice on July 06, 2014, 06:48:58 AM

bitcoinwisdoms diff algos rely heavily of the previous change. Thus early on in an adjustment period it is basically saying the diff will inc by the prev amount. Right now my models show 2% increase.

This calls for a *Miner's Dance*!

Make's sense that difficulty has been skyrocketing since I can't really recall how long its just been skyrocketing on every reset lol.

RoadStress

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Quote from: TheJuice on July 06, 2014, 06:48:58 AM

bitcoinwisdoms diff algos rely heavily of the previous change. Thus early on in an adjustment period it is basically saying the diff will inc by the prev amount. Right now my models show 2% increase.

This calls for a *Miner's Dance*!

TheJuice

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bitcoinwisdoms diff algos rely heavily of the previous change. Thus early on in an adjustment period it is basically saying the diff will inc by the prev amount. Right now my models show 2% increase.

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: ALToids on July 05, 2014, 02:25:30 AM

Quote from: freedomno1 on July 05, 2014, 02:09:02 AM

Well if mining actually stabilizes it means that we have one of the indicators to a price rise matching
The whole market rate stabilizes and the hash stabilizes leading to a new price boost and an increasing in mining again part of the cycle.
Worth watching either way

Eh I don't think mining and price are that closely associated these days. Maybe back in the day. Unless some miner decides to not buy miners and buy coins instead creating demand, it doesn't alter the price.

Perhaps it is a bit of an older topic 2013 to the extent that electricity prices do effect mining
Old topic on it
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/chart-correlation-between-bitcoin-price-and-difficulty-358257

At minimum it does effect the price a bit since you can't argue that Bitcoin would have the same price at a difficulty of 1 as it does at its present difficulty near 17 billion, but your right the margins may not be as large as they once were, adoption and merchant usage are larger factors than before to take its place.

I was thinking about the profitability gap.
Although the blockchain one makes me go Huh

needs an update really badly lol.
https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1jyx2i/well_this_doesnt_look_very_good_bitcoin_mining/

ALToids

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Quote from: freedomno1 on July 05, 2014, 02:09:02 AM

Well if mining actually stabilizes it means that we have one of the indicators to a price rise matching
The whole market rate stabilizes and the hash stabilizes leading to a new price boost and an increasing in mining again part of the cycle.
Worth watching either way

Eh I don't think mining and price are that closely associated these days. Maybe back in the day. Unless some miner decides to not buy miners and buy coins instead creating demand, it doesn't alter the price.

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Well if mining actually stabilizes it means that we have one of the indicators to a price rise matching
The whole market rate stabilizes and the hash stabilizes leading to a new price boost and an increasing in mining again part of the cycle.
Worth watching either way

-ck

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Ruu \o/

Quote from: RoadStress on July 04, 2014, 10:48:11 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 04, 2014, 01:32:05 PM

Quote from: iglasses on July 04, 2014, 12:24:09 PM

Hashrate starting to rise...blocks back down to 10.1

I think it's unrealistic to expect anything under 18.6 next round.

To far off but under 18 seems possible. !7.9 is possible

18.6 is too much. ~10% I say.

I believe he meant 18.6G diff. Over 18 certainly still seems likely. Going down? Not a chance.

RoadStress

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Quote from: philipma1957 on July 04, 2014, 01:32:05 PM

Quote from: iglasses on July 04, 2014, 12:24:09 PM

Hashrate starting to rise...blocks back down to 10.1

I think it's unrealistic to expect anything under 18.6 next round.

To far off but under 18 seems possible. !7.9 is possible

18.6 is too much. ~10% I say.

ThomasCrowne

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Quote from: kendog77 on July 01, 2014, 01:09:58 PM

The current average time between blocks was 10.1 minutes over the last two days. If this keeps up, it will result in the difficulty going down for the first time in ~18 months!

New hardware is still being manufactured, so I expect the block solve time to increase over the next few days and result in a small difficulty increase, but it's nice to get a bit of relief from the ~25% increase we just had!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Wanna bet on that?

philipma1957

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Quote from: iglasses on July 04, 2014, 12:24:09 PM

Hashrate starting to rise...blocks back down to 10.1

I think it's unrealistic to expect anything under 18.6 next round.

To far off but under 18 seems possible. !7.9 is possible

Topic: Bitcoin difficulty may actually go down in ~7 days! - page 6. (Read 8605 times)