Topic: Bitcoin distribution vs Bitcoin adoption - page 2. (Read 4033 times)

Your timeline is silly short.  I don't think Bitcoin will end all fiats.  Nations have too much of a vested interest to keep that shell game going.  My guess is the day we both die there will be plenty of national fiat currencies.  The power of Bitcoin is that it (possibly for the first time) gives people the OPTION to choose an alternative system.   The reality is many won't, many never will, and for many it will take decades before they are convinced in the utility of an alternative.    Neither Bitcoin's price growth nor its adoption curve will be that short.  The 90% aren't going to suddenly all show up one day (all one the same day) and the price isn't going to be 10x what is was yesterday.  Mainstream adoption is measured in decades and will be gradual with setbacks in adoption, technology, and legislation.

Still if you are right then all cryptocurrencies are doomed to failure (as they all need a decentralized mechanism to bootstrap) so sell now while you still can or pick the point you think it can get before it fails.

I got an even simplier version. I wanna see fiat die and be wiped out by BTC, and am trying to forsee the issues getting there.

Yesterday, with 1000$, you could get 10k BTC
Today, with 1000$, you can get 4BTC
Tomorrow, with 1000$, you'll get 0.01BTC
The day after tomorrow, with 1000$, you'll just be a laughing stock.

See my point for the 90% of people that will come tomorrow or the day after?

Or did you actually just admit bitcoin is and always will be just a speculation tool to earn fiat and keep the whole banking fuckfest on?

If adoption slows the price will fall some holders will be willing to sell because their current needs outweigh the (now reduced) potential gain over the next month, year, decade.   That lower price will draw in new adoptees and the circle widens.  Each crash, each boom creations a distribution effect. 

I mean lets imagine a hypothetical 10,000 BTC early miner.  Its worth $2M today you don't think he/she is considering liquidating at least a portion of that 10,000 BTC.  Even if he/she isn't in dire financial strait I am sure they have wants and desires, a vacation, start a business, buy a boat, etc.   Lets say they hold Bitcoin goes up to $1K ea they are now holding $10M.  That is more money that 99% of the planet will make in a lifetime.  Don't you think a "lets sell 10% (or 20%, or 50%)" and hedge our bets seems likely.   No?  Ok BTC goes to $25,000 ea.  They are now (on paper a quarter billionaire) still no need/desire to sell of some of their stake?  Of course they would.  If nobody did the liquidity on MtGox would be zero right now with only bids at $50,000+.


Simple version:  you either believe in free markets and voluntary association or you don't. 

I'm actually worried because I want bitcoin to be adopted worldwide. In that sense (and many others), I find Zuckerberg position about connecting everyone to internet much more profitable on the long run than Gates position with his focus on paludism.

Imagine people coming in 2 years from now.
Nearly 60% of the bitcoins will have already been distributed.
Doesn't sound that sexy to share the 40% left with the other 90% unaware people, does it?

Then they will come with alternatives. And they will be the majority.
Hopefully their alternative don't involve banks, nor central authorities.
Guess that's all I'm asking for.

No please, I need more time to hoard. Only have 5 coins atm! I won't be elite enough!

So hang on forever and die with the most Bitcoins = win.

People sell Bitcoins every day.  Money isn't wealth.  Money is what you trade for wealth.  Simply holding money forever is illogical and it doesn't happen.

How can you buy Gold.  Why don't gold miners just never sell it.  Put every disposable dollar into gold reserves?   There is no point holding gold or Bitcoins forever.   People do spend/sell/trade Bitcoins they will continue to do so.

The fallacy in your argument is that everyone puts every dollar they have into Bitcoin, or needs Bitcoin to pay for day to day necessities.

Most people put whatever spare cash they have into Bitcoin. They can "afford" to hang onto to it through thick and thin.

It would be interesting how many Bitcoiners buy and hold, and how many are active buyers and sellers doing it on a weekly or monthly basis.

Kinda like the real world?


That assumes the neighbor was smart enough to hang on to 1,000 BTC through bubbles and crashes.  Most wont they will transfer those coins to someone else when the risk vs reward makes it worth it.   However do you honestly think your 1,000 BTC neighbor is never going to spend them?  He is going to be real world poor living in a cardboard box, starving do death but clutching his paper wallet.  No it is highly likely he will do what most rapidly wealth people do.  They spend it. When he does guess was what .... MORE DISTRIBUTION.

We are talking about adoption on a lifetime scale.  If nobody every spends/sells/trades BTC then it likely isn't going anywhere and thus holding 1% of nothing is still nothing.   If it does go somewhere big on a lifetime (30, 40, 60 years) scale then coins will have changed hands many times.

Not sure if you are just worried there will be Bitcoin rich.  Bitcoin was never designed to eliminate wealth disparity.   There will be Bitcoin rich and poor just like there are Dollar rich and poor.

What is the alternative??

The current USD is controlled by 0.02% of the wealthy elite.

Since 2006, the top 2% of the wealthy in the USA have made an absolute killing scooping up homes for pennies on the dollar.

Only the very wealthy are getting richer with the USD. Everyone else is just getting deeper in debt, thanks to rising food and fuel costs.



But don't worry about the rich. They will get invested into Bitcoin one way or another. That's why they hire Financial Planners, to spot investment opportunities like this.

Hopefully, they will only catch on when it hits the $500-$1000 range, when all of us have already bought in at a lucrative time.



Another thing: the easier it becomes to get Bitcoin (i.e. ATMs and other devices of widespread adoption), the higher the price of Bitcoin.
We are getting Bitcoin now relatively cheap because it's not that easy to obtain it.

I'm not talking about the CPU miners, I'm talking about the guys you sold 10k BTC to.

I'm talking about current distribution, which already looks very, very akward, with most of us having 0.5 to 20 BTC, and most of the BTC being held by people having 10k+.

I do understand this won't be a switch-like process, but:

- It was much easier/cheaper to get 100BTC 2 years ago
- Is is probably much easier/cheaper to get 100BTC now than it will be in 2 years.
- The more it becomes evident BTC is the future way to exchange, the more people with no prior knowledge of BTC will find it unfair that their neighbours managed to hoard thousands of those because they got lucky and were sent an news paper by their geek nephew.

And this looks like a concern to me, as I still consider at least 90% of the people on earth never heard of bitcoin (though I swear I'm doing my share to spread it around me).

I was hoping you'd get I wasn't too serious about your post either.
And I haven't clicked on your sig link, sorry, I never do.

But I might give it a try, for once, since it's concise and not too colorful.

You pretend like there are only two finite states a) now and b) entire world uses Bitcoin.

The reality is the end state of Bitcoin is completely unknown and the time until that end state is also unknown.  Lots of early miners sold thousands of coins when Bitcoin hit $1 because it was "easy money". 

Distribution and adoption is a gradual process.  For every person who puts their coins in a paper wallet and refuses to look at the ticker out of fear of selling them another one sells off convinced Bitcoin will go lower.  I sold lots of BTC to lots of people and the overwhelming majority never mined a single coin, some of them would have no idea even how to setup a mining rig.   The largest of orders were on the order of 10,000 BTC. 

The idea that all the coins are held by some early CPU miners is laughable.

Well, you didn't get that my post was dripping with sarcasm, and in addition to that, I am designing something completely different that might just tickle the fancy of the 99%. See sig.

PS - Out of principle, I do not own any bitcoins.

Amazing isn't it, the fundamental human flaw: we are doomed to become that which we despise.

If you read the archives here you'll see the early days (pre speculative boom) were marked by people talking about their disgust with the fundamental inequalities of the existing financial order, and how Bitcoin could provide a model for a more sustainable society. Of course that was before the speculators started the bubble and all of a sudden when there was serious money involved idealism was defenestrated in favour of Gordon Gekko style hubris

These phonies don't want to end plutocracy, they just dream of replacing the existing plutocrats.

It wouldn't be that sudden, people would start coming in hoping to beat others. It wouldn't be till 75% of people were in that people would seriously go elsewhere

You won't get any sensible discussion of this issue here because it is nothing but a den of rampers and speculators. I have raised this here , and it was this very issue which resulted in me walking away from Bitcoin and handing my Bitcoin winnings (anyone that says earnings is kidding themselves) over to charitable causes. I was interested in an alternative currency, not an alternative FOREX market, and that is what Bitcoin is, just another avenue for currency speculators with no interest in engendering any real economic change to make some easy money.


One of the reasons the early days of mining Bitcoins when it was trivial is not discussed is because the fanboys know this issue is poison for mass adoption. Same goes for the massive haul of coins mined when Bitcoin was still very much sub rosa. The proposition for the masses seems to be

'Abandon state fiat currency and the inequity of a sytem which sees the vast majority of wealth controlled by a small cabal and use Bitcoin which.....er hang on'


Not going to wash I'm afraid, which is another reason this stupid experiment is doomed. Was a nice idea, but alas it was corrupted by greed, hubris and polluted by the kind of rhetoric I thought it was trying to move away from (as in this forum sounds like a Wall St. dinner party).

Doesn't that seem like a serious issue in your plans to take over the world?

If I was to discover tomorrow that FIAT just died and the new exchange token, limited in quantity, was already shared among a tiny amount of people, I'd probably look into any other fairer alternative, and would naturally be followed by 99% of the population.

And even though I do know a few private keys with unspent outputs, I'm not sure I'd like to live in world led by early adopters, even less if you're one of them.

Lmao

+1

Stop speaking nonsense, the world will gladly want to become slaves to new masters, it's the only way of life they know.

reset it?
nah

but there are plenty of alt coins.. just pick a date in lets say 5 years get everyone supporting an alt coin you chose and in 5 years you can reset your alt coin..