Topic: Bitcoin ETFs and the 401(k) Dilemma (Read 306 times)

Then don't YOLO on Bitcoin. Invest, but don't risk too much.

It won't be a.vice decision to put all your retirement funds into Bitcoin and don't be soley dependent on outcome of Bitcoin ETF, I would say investing in Bitcoin will surely give you good returns of it's for long term investment but what I understood from your post is that utilizing retirement savings to buy Bitcoin and if it's value increased massively due to ETF you can withdraw. But sometimes we will not be able to do as per our plan and if Bitcoin dumps it would take years for recover and you can consider those who cashed in at ATH value of Bitcoin and it's almost 2 years now but still they are unable to recover the amount they have invested and it would just create unnecessary panic. It would be better to buy Bitcoin every month with what so ever saving you can make from your salary and I am sharing this thought from a common man's perspective.

If someone has already secured their future for few year and they could afford to losss the investment then they can go with YOLO profile and invest.

No, I can't. 

I have seen this advice too. I still some income from other sources going into bitcoin but since I have been observing the times and seasons, I am growing bullish. No reason not to do more than 1%. It is obvious what is coming and about to happen.

Can you afford to lose it all? My 2 sats: do a bit of both. Put some in Bitcoin, but not everything. I've seen recommendations to have at least 1% of your assets in Bitcoin, and I can only support that. There's a chance that 1% will be worth more than the other 99% in the (distant) future. But if it drops, at least you'll have your 99% left and can still eat.

Like most Bitcoin HODLers, I have more than 1% of what I own in Bitcoin. I'm not going to share the exact percentage.

@Lucius (and everyone else)

It's the same with me, and I consider it a very unfair system considering that people work for 40+ years and then retire and die after 2 or 3 years and in most cases they don't even get 10% of the money they invested in the pension fund. Admittedly, it is true that the spouse can inherit the pension in case he has a smaller pension or no pension at all, or even a child who is unable to work.

It would be much fairer to allow people to get that money even before they reach old age, but instead they want to force us to work even longer and go straight to the grave from the workplace.

exactly, even at $35k where else could you double that in 2 years? - nowhere.

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In my country most people avail of a "State Pension" but cannot access it until
aged 67. Others have private pensions and these are designed to be paid into
for a long time to avail of when you are elderly.

"Investing" in Bitcoin can be as short as 4 years in order to make a good profit.

Personally I wouldnt invest in an ETF when I can just buy Bitcoin directly myself.

I dont have any FIAT based investments other than my property. FIAT is devaluing,
why would I squirrel away funds regularly into FIAT?

Well, you only live once has no season, but anyways, the reason why people now are showing interest to "invest on" Bitcoin is because they go where ever the winds go, they wait for the movement to start and then decide to invest.
Why do I say invest on? Because what they do is like betting, they are actually betting on the future price, whilst the true believers  of Bitcoin are already invested in deep for years.
Of course buying/investing now is much less profitable than 30 days ago, and 30 days from now it will become much less profitable than now.

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If you don't trust and believe in Bitcoin, it's best if you don't engage with it, you might suddenly loose 50% of your portfolio and dump everything to save at least the other half, just to realize in a matter of few weeks, that you made a big mistake.

Do you think that the price of BTC will not at least double by the end of 2024 considering the halving and the possible approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US? The difference between $30k and $35k is not that big, and even if someone has to wait until the end of 2025 to make a significant profit, I think that a little more than 2 years is not too long even for those who are less patient.

Of course, I still think that such an investment is a risky move considering where the money for it comes from.

YOLO season has already passed, now you must wait until the price drops back down below $30K before you take risks with large amount of savings, since your investment will most likely be underwater until at least 2025.


401k is not an investment fund for startups (or the equivalent for altcoins), if you want to invest in something with your 401k you must only invest in something you know very well, wait for it to get a percentage profit, and get your money out immediately.

Go for it, dive into it, as you said YOLO, so why not risk it all? While there is even a better opportunity in a very short period of time, buy now just to sell after the halving when God willing we hit another ATH, then you can cash out with at least 90% profit in less than a year.

After that you could go back to your normal life and wait for another 4 years, another ETF hype, another halving to rinse and repeat, just imagine how much more you can get by doing this instead of waiting one or two decades.

It's a hard decision to make when 401k is going to protect you when you get old. It's for your security that you won't end up homeless.

But can't you do both cause it seems like you already are buying BTC and also have plans for your 401k. If you are in doubt because your government may just take your 401k funds somewhere else, then maybe it's a good decision to go dive into BTC after all the fiat will be terribly affected by inflation soon.

It probably depends on how much bitcoin you have right now and what's your goal.

You say you do DCA, so how much is all your bitcoin savings vs your fiat? If you get 100 thousand from your plan and you have maybe 20 invested in bitcoin It could be a good idea to increase the amount of bitcoin you have at the expense of your fiat.

When you get the money, what are your other investment options? Buy a property? Put it in the bank? Buy gold?

This question has been asked before a few times, but in this question, you asked something unique, which is that your company allows self-directed investments and an option to save funds in BTC has been available for you, and you are skeptical about it because you doubt if it is a good step to cover all of the savings of a retiree in one asset, which is a great hedge against inflation (BTC).

I mean, BTC is better than the US or any other fiat currency, but volatility is still there, but in the long run of 2 decades, I will say go for BTC, and that would be a good choice because over the period of 20 years, your savings in fiat will become less as time passes and its value will be eaten away due to inflation, but if you consider BTC, then it will be saved plus more value will be added. And 20 years is a long time.

Plus, you are getting the features of 401(k) in it. But I think this scenario of yours is imaginative because I don't think other than a country that has totally accepted BTC and its decentralization will take this step.

Back when I worked the corporate world for a very large pharma company they had a very small selection to choose from in the 401K. But they matched half so it worked out kinda. I gather that 401k's are dependant on the employer selections for most. If one can't get direct exposure to BTC then by proxy like Micro Strategies.

Pretty sure 401k's only allow investment in a select amount of investments. The one time I had a 401k there were specific things we could choose from, its not like we had the entire stock/bond market to choose from.

So it'll likely be some time before 401k's actually start adding BTC ETFs to their approved list, and even then it'll only be some that do this.


But for anyone who at some point in the future is able to invest in a BTC ETF through a 401k I don't see why you wouldn't do that, at least with some of your 401k money. Probably by the time people can start accessing it through 401k's Bitcoin will be much. more mature and no longer grow at a super fast rate, so by then it might just be one of several things you use the 401k for, instead of putting all your 401k money into it.


Whenever BTC ETFs start being approved, whether it is next year or 5 years from now, it won't be retirement accounts that fill it up but your typical traditional investor, investment firm, corporations, and the like, as buying an ETF will be easier for most of them than actually owning Bitcoin. I would guess once an ETF is available that's when we'll see more institutional investment into bitcoin specifically, from investment firms and corporations because they are only interested in using Bitcoin as an asset and not as money so for them actually owning Bitcoin isn't important and adds complexity. For the "bitcoin is an investment-only" crowd an ETF is gonna be huge - lots of Bitcoin is going to be taken up by ETFs thanks to them. But it'll likely be awhile before people start getting access to Bitcoin through something as controlled and limited as a 401k account.

this is what most people view:

choices:
a. $275k salary. $173k take home pay(post tax).. using 20% to buy 1btc leaving $139k spare for lifestyle

b. $275k salary putting 7.5%($20k) employer matches 7.5%(20k) purchase $40k of etf shares equivalent to 1.17btc pegged value
    and leaving 163k takehome to spend on lifestyle    

so would you prefer (forget the security and benefits of hoarding actual bitcoin) financially to have shares that peg 1.17btc price but you get to spend $163k of your salary.
or
have just 1btc of actual bitcoin but only $139k to spend of your actual salary

and this dilemma is why many people see a benefit of ETF instead of hoarding actual bitcoin

I don't see a dilemma. Just invest in bitcoin but keep it yourself with your private keys and also invest in a good index fund for retirement such as the S&P 500. There will be more and more options to hold bitcoin through ETFs and other vehicles in your pension plan but I plan to keep it outside, in my hands, with my keys.


That's bullshit if you're not of retirement age yet, which I gather you're not. In some countries they won't even let you withdraw the money before you retire, and in others, such as the USA, you will pay between the penalty for withdrawing before and the tax of around 50%. Leave the classic options such as index funds in retirement and save on your own to buy bitcoin.

The Bitcoin ETF projects would be a nice time to invest for old timers especially who understand how it works and want to take advantage and invest in a good DCA strategy.
I don't think I could allow my retirement funds be DCAd for now until the halving is over even as it remains the best practice overlooking that timeline.
No FOMO or emotional investment would make me do such because the company couldn't care less about the best investment strategy for me. It's better my retirement funds are left intact and then I DCA or invest of my own earnings till retirement.

You call it obligatory, yet it seems it is accessible even while you are still in service. If that is the case, I will go with the option of diverting it to Bitcoin. Keeping money in fiat will never be my preferred choice, seeing what inflation has done to our local currency. On the other hand, the potential in Bitcoin is amazing, and it even provides a form of hedge against inflation. With Bitcoin ETF and halving on the pipeline, there is no doubt that we will see a decent rise in the price of Bitcoin.

I'm also involved in a mandatory retirement contribution, but ours is not accessible until after retirement or four months after quitting the job. Should I have the option of chaneling this funds to something else, I will be all in in Bitcoin.  However,  don't take my words for it, follow what you are convinced is the best decision.