Topic: Bitcoin, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD short term predictions using machine learning - page 2. (Read 1451 times)

Well,
First of all, Congrats for the site.
Second of all, I don't like the site. You need to put sometime to design the website professionally, if you have friend with good designing knowledge have him to help you. This is mandatory.
Third of all, As the site is up in a while, you would have asked our feedback after few days.
Then,

About page and Contack information are enough for this site.

You need to put some Cautionary information stating this is an machine learning prediction thing.

Always interesting to see new methods (especially ML based) here. Thanks for the stimulus :)

A few remarks:

* While I'm guilty of 'black box' posting myself, it would of course be a lot more interesting to look a bit behind the veil of your algorithm. I gather it's an ANN-based predictor. Anything more you want to say about it?

What NN architecture specifically? And, maybe most importantly, a few words about the structure (and features) of your input, and what exactly you have been training here?

(EDIT: As in: Vector or scalar input? Price only, or other factors? Uniform time scale, or several? Any idea how to describe, qualitatively, what your input represents, and what the generalization is your network (ideally) learned?)

* The way it looks now, the network predicts a moderate rise over the next 5 days, to around $560/565. As it stands now, those predictions are a bit "isolated", so ideally, you would add the following:

(a) An additional output of your predictor that represent the certainty of your network wrt its prediction. Probably could be done as another error function you need to train (training aims to reduce the combined error then, of 'price deviation' and 'confidence deviation').

This suggestions is probably similar to rebuilder's request above, but possibly, to do what he asks, you'd first need to implement something like (a).

(b) Tracking how your method performed on the site. Even if (a) above is too much effort, it should be not too much effort to graph the history of prediction vs. actual price. Possibly, you were already planning to do so. There's probably more than one way to implement that one in detail, since I expect the output of your NN to get closer to the actual price as the prediction distance gets smaller.

Perhaps, even though it might be a bit of a hack, you could discretely color-code the prediction output vs. price for different distances, e.g. at time N, you plot the actual price of N, plus the price predicted by the NN at N-5 days (in red), plus the prediction of N-4 days (in orange), etc., up to maybe N-1 day.

(Apologies to the data scientists and statisticians :D ... as you can see, I have no damn clue how to properly plot error for a rolling window method)

Could you draw the average error as upper and lower bounds to the predicted price? It might outline the nature of the predictions better.

So you have created the site which predict the price (value) of bitcoin compared to one or other currencies. Good invention. But I have a question. You tell that you have used "artificial intelligence algorithms" to predict future prices of bitcoin. My first question is: since this kind of algorithms are created by the mind of an human (yours in this case) and, as I know, this kind of existence (named human brain) is not yet able to realize such kind of "job" that your site do, how is possible that the product be more intelligent that the creator? The human brain cannot give to your site that what is not able to have. At least this is what tell my brain. Maybe I'm wrong. If so can you correct me?

I'm not sure when you last saw the site, but I've made changes over time here and there. For a few months it was actually doing shockingly well, although the past week ish it's been not too great. I'm always working on improving it.


It won't send you any emails other than to sign up, and if you need to reset your password. There are a lot of reasons that it now requires sign up, one of which is so that I can get a better idea of site usage.


The performance doesn't load because there is no past performance yet because the site has been up for less than 24 hours. Check again tomorrow night


Yes you need to sign up. It won't send you any emails other than to verify your account. The page to sign up is here: http://www.btcpredictions.com/signup

The site doesn't look creepy but rather very simple interface and it seems it lacks functionality. I tried using IE,chrome and firefox but when I click charts, noting shows up, only next and past text. The website seems to only have some explanation as far as what I could see unless I have to sign up before some stuff show up. Aside from these the site loads fast.

The chart for past performance doesn't seem to load. Firefox on linux.

I was wondering why you need people to create an account? To be honest, I don't really want to make accounts for every small service out there. I allready have way too many accounts.

If it is just for showing the price predictions, I think you could do without the sign up part.

Didn't you have a neural network or something like it? If I remember correctly, it didn't work very well. Have you made major strides since then?

I run a website (www.btcpredictions.com) which I posted about on here close to a year ago. I got helpful feedback from people, so I thought I would ask here again because I've just recently made some major changes.

This site uses artificial intelligence algorithms to try to predict future bitcoin prices over the next 24 hours and 5 days. The predictions are displayed on simple charts. The major changes that I've made in this newest version is that it now predicts aud/usd and eur/usd exchange rates in addition to bitcoin, and that it shows past performance (which won't start working until tomorrow). I'll be adding more currency pairs soon too.

Anyway I was hoping to see what people thought, and get some suggestions on what could improve. I know the ui is a bit crappy... I'm more of a back-end software kind of guy. There are some bugs in it too, but it seems to be functioning mostly for the moment.

Any constructive feedback would be much appreciated!