Topic: Bitcoin Fear and Greed index. Don't time the market! - page 2. (Read 452 times)

If the HODLers/early miners of 2012 who received their UTXOs priced at $6.00 a coin started selling all of their coins and caused a crash to $10,000 a coin, it would be a time of extreme greed for the market, not extreme panic? OK, franky1. Thankfully normal people don’t analyse the market like you.

Exactly and most especially when you happen to buy at about the top of the market. Most people tend to cut their loss because of the fear that they don't know how far low that price might get but if you have been holding from quite a good price from the bottom, I would definitely take some profit or sell to buy buy back once we are near the bottom again though this is hard to confirm but this is the risk we all have to take in this space.

I think ...if you experienced the price drop from $18 000 to $3000 back in 2017 or after that... you cannot be called a newbie anymore. A lot of people thought that the price will go down to zero back then and it was panic stations all around. The die hard Bitcoiners stuck to their guns and they Hodled right through that.

The reward..... $60 000+ Bitcoin price in 2021  So, what have we learnt from that? ...Answer : Do NOT panic .... hodl for long-term profits, not short-term losses. 

Isn't that how that works, when the fear index is high, you buy more bitcoin and when you see that greed index is high then that's the time that you sell almost every bitcoin in your possession or any crypto that you have that has high greed index. That's how I am doing my trades recently and how I made some profit out it and so far so good for me.

I'm not buying that mate because capitalists or businessman will not invest too much of what they think may lose so wrong that less experienced are the larger investors .
We know nothing about this in reality mate , because in crypto privacy we know small things on who really makes the market moves.
Panicking happens every time and that is part of the market because we are talking about Money here and people are afraid in losing.

and what is annoying is that some of those who are less experienced in this investment market are those who have a large capital.
with large capital and fairly large asset ownership. provoked to follow FUD, of course, it became a big problem for the market when some people with large capital began to be led to follow FUD.
the problem is the experience and panic about the ownership of the assets they have. they are less calm in reading the situation.

Interesting analysis. Notice how the cycle is getting changed over the period of time now! The four year cycle does not seem to be followed by the 2021-2022 year due to the Greed:Fear ratio being at its peak. If we start from the bottom of graph and previous years then analyse that how Greed pushes the market upwards following the sharp bearish trend but again followed by breaking of the all ATH records of previous years.

This has not happened in the last two years. The pandemic is also big contributor for this thing as we saw down turn in the financial systems and economic crisis world wide.

Sadly though, we are still being overrun by dumb investors who just moves depending on how the FUDs want them to move, it's not really a big problem though but there's more dumb investors than the smart ones so they end up making the market move to their liking even if we are smart. Good thing that anyone can take advantage of this kind of problem though, it's not that difficult to follow through this and make yourself some cash while following it.

Yes, another reason is because beginners do not have much experience or even no experience at all, so when the market price tends to decline they will be emotional, worried and panic selling even though they are losing money.
and that will make the market worse because beginners have weak hands and easily falter, compared to those who have been in the industry for a long time and they stay calm despite the worries and holding it in is a last resort or take advantage of the downturn by making purchases to grow holdings, because the hike is sure to happen just time and patience is needed next.

I like the summarized type of chart where the index is seen for all time. I think the best way to get that in your head is to see the past happenings and correlate if it will be the same sentiment. So if you are thinking about buying Bitcoin, and then you see that people are fearful of it, then it's a great time to buy. I'm not sure if this would be a great indication, but you can still be profitable if you do it correctly.

What is hard is to control emotions. That is especially a lot harder if one is a newbie. When someone who has just entered the crypto market is seeing the price falling consistently in a certain time period, all kinds of bad possibilities will be rising in his mind. That's the time a newbie will most likely sell.

But to someone who has been in the market for a long time, who has been through the worst and the best days in the market, such bearish moments might even be exciting ones. Those are certainly opportunities to buy.

It's pretty simple math, once prices start to move up we become greedy and enter then. If the price start dumps a fear work in our mind always. Even I am not a newbie it's the same for me as well. Especially during the dump, I am not out of fear. But most of the time when start pump I do not become greedy. I am not a good trader, so I decide to become a mid-term holder. So during bumping price, I won't dare to enter.

OP, the fear is not just for beginners because when most of us are not convinced of the potential of bitcoin then investment fear is bound to come.

I really believe there are a lot of people who are less likely to buy bitcoin in 2018-2019-2020 because the market is not that great. People are not trained to be patient and know how the future of bitcoin is based on the history of ATH that has been achieved. In addition, ATH is an achievement that is always eagerly awaited, but we cannot guarantee that it will continue to be repeated in a 4 year cycle. However, bitcoin is one asset that really needs to be in our portfolio.

When the market is in extreme fear 10 or less, its a very good time to buy. Also if the market is in extreme greed that is 90 or above, it's time to sell and do not take new entries. Market comes to these points once or twice in a year, so when you see these points on the fear and greed index, its best time to take entry or exit from the market.

that's what it is mate, wherein they take advantage of what situation the market has especially when it's downtrend because it's a big opportunity to buy dip. That's why i wouldn't be surprised what we saw around internet are negatives especially if market plunges and obviously it's to intimidate some weak hands in the market so that some investors as well can avail cheap price.. Lol

what would be useful as a better measure of "fear" or "greed"
its not a simple

      /\
    /    \
\/
price up=greener
price down=redder

but instead. look at all the transactions of bitcoin. and note the exchange rate at the time of UTXO creation. and the exchange rate when that UTXO is spent.

if the UTXO moves(destroyed) when the price is lower than it was created. thats a signal of fear. if the utxo moves when it has gained XXX% thats a sign of greed.

EG i have coins i havnt moved since 2012($6/coin) so my utxo would show as greed.
but someone else that bought at $60k and is now spending that utxo at $40k is obviously moving at a 'loss', which can be fear

of course not all movements = 'spending' / 'exiting at a loss' . but its a better way to view how many coins people decided that its time to do something with based on value. which is a better indicator than the simple chart that just makes price rise greener and price drops redder(high school level logic)

using the UTXO of creation and destruction (btc moving in transactions)
you can then plot it into a graph against the bitcoin price of the % of greed vs % of fear

EG although today the topic creators graph shows we are in a red fear zone.. if i sold my coin today. im making 6666x profit. which would be extreme greed. not fear.
if majority of todays exchange trade volume was from 'early adopters' it would be a greed day, not a fear day
if majority of todays exchange trade volume was from 'late adopters'($50k+) it would be a fear day, not a greed day

The real reason why people here can get so emotional is not because they are new to Bitcoin, but because they are new to trading in general, and being exposed to such extremely volatile market from the start can be very stressful.

Fear and Greed index is just an indicator, it doesn't predict where Bitcoin is going in the long run or even what's going to happen in the short term. It seems logical that after "fear" comes "greed", but no one knows exactly how long the "fear" will last.

This one.

Seems I've encountered the bloody one, yet I can say I'm not considered as an expert one too. I don't consider F&G as the best tool as well, I think it needs some purge with the current noise it made on the market and who are those really in it for the long term. I wonder if it decrease the twitter posts and those TikTok vids lol 😂

Four year is too much for some people, some people can spend 10 years and remain to be a newbie because they are only hearing about most but they do not know what is going on and the facts but for someone that are into crypto for 4 years, study the market and know many things, they will not be called newbies. I am getting what you are saying but we have to consider that people have different cognition and some people learn the past very fast to know the right direction to take.

That's why they tweet anything regarding the situation of the market where they will use it to invest when things will go exactly as they planned. Thankfully we have more intelligent investors today than before, they won't settle for what the influencers think about bitcoins and cryptocurrencies nowadays. but still, when the market is facing some difficulties, there are lots of investors who panicked and when that happened, opportunities who were waiting for the price to decrease are ready to pump up the price again. If you master such technique, you would never suffere any loss in the market.