Bitcoin Fear Index at 10 | Bitcointalksearch.org

STT

legendary

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I fear the dark#

Some would even say this process of fear vs the prior greed is necessary to weigh excess and for balance, there is a fair argument for it. I dont see how we are at peak fear, I would have guessed us lower in that scenario. Its not a bad conclusion to say a fear reaction thats over done is inversely bullish in a subtle way. However subtle means more open to misinterpretation I think which makes me search for confirmation before really deciding in that way especially.
Right now I need the price to make an attempt back above 39k (confirm with 4hr bars the whole 9 yards Tongue

). US dollar index has been at higher levels for some time now, in a yearly comparison its not exceptionally high but it might be enough to drain the reserves and inflated price of BTC to some extent. We have to withdraw some of that weak hand money basically.

wxa7115

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Bitcoin is GOD

Quote from: pooya87 on January 16, 2022, 12:30:06 AM

Every time we see a situation like this build up in bitcoin market we end up seeing a purge where the weak hands and panic sellers sell their bitcoins and get out. This creates a drop which we already had and a phase where price doesn't go up or down for a long time (can be called an accumulation phase). This always leads to a big jump after some time followed by a bigger jump as the same panic sellers rush to buy bitcoin at a much higher price so that they don't "miss out".

What is interesting from that process is that as time passes bitcoin flows from weak hands to strong hands, meaning that given enough time even if the majority of the market participants are weak hands the majority of the bitcoin will be held by strong hands.

Meaning that over the long term the volatility of bitcoin should decrease somewhat as the amount of bitcoin that panic sellers control becomes more and more reduced, bringing more stability to this market in the process.

sana54210

legendary

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 17, 2022, 04:48:22 AM

Plus if we zoom out, it can actually do more than double or triple too.

Bitcoin requires a very low time preference as an investment. It’s not as exciting as fast surging shitcoins, but Bitcoin will remain a good investment than the shitcoins. In 10 years shitcoin networks will die, Bitcoin sill remain to be a robust cryptocurrency for Store of Value because of the design decisions made by the Core developers.

Sometimes the tortoise wins the race, right? I mean sure shitcoins could make 100x return if you are lucky enough, but that is rarely the case in most of the times, whereas when we are talking about bitcoin, we know that it will do as well as it could. If you are not certain that it will be a great deal, then you could always go with shitcoins and risk it and hope that you are right.

However that is not going to be easy challenge, it is going to take a while before you could hit some gem that makes you earn that much money. At the end of the day bitcoin is at the top for a reason and buying it will allow you to be a lot better in the long run.

I personally hope that we could see something decent out of this situation, and that rarely ever comes out to be wrong considering bitcoin almost always goes up in the long run. Someone who buys today will rarely be losing money after 1 year.

Wind_FURY

legendary

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Quote from: El duderino_ on January 16, 2022, 05:47:31 PM

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 12, 2022, 12:00:36 AM

Fear is low, will take another 20-30% correction to get the panic selling started. Lots of people got in on the bull run and really think the total crypto market cap can double or even triple in the coming months.

But it actually can double or triple as well

Easily.

Plus if we zoom out, it can actually do more than double or triple too.

Bitcoin requires a very low time preference as an investment. It’s not as exciting as fast surging shitcoins, but Bitcoin will remain a good investment than the shitcoins. In 10 years shitcoin networks will die, Bitcoin sill remain to be a robust cryptocurrency for Store of Value because of the design decisions made by the Core developers.

adaseb

legendary

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The issue with these charts is not that they are unreliable, they can be reliable however you need to understand that it can keep dipping further and further and further before it actually bottoms out. Look at the chart in July 2018, it was already at fear. And then it kept going lower.

And when it broke $6K support, it was already very fearful however price still kept dipping. So if you bought at $6K originally you would of suffered a 50% loss at one point. Hence why in this situation, it can still go down to like $30K or even lower before it goes right back up. Not accurate unless you are buying long term positions.

El duderino_

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Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 12, 2022, 12:00:36 AM

Fear is low, will take another 20-30% correction to get the panic selling started. Lots of people got in on the bull run and really think the total crypto market cap can double or even triple in the coming months.

But it actually can double or triple as well

Easily.

buwaytress

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Fear/Greed Index wasn't working out as it should be in 2020, didn't pay much attention to it last year, rally invalidated everything, but seems like that 10 hasn't let down now.

Quote from: davis196 on January 16, 2022, 06:08:21 AM

I've always wondered how this Fear&Greed index is being calculated.Emotions like fear and desires like greed cannot be mathematically measured.

Everything can be measured, they use a lot of sentiment analysis behind it, but yeah, that's always a bit suspect for me as most algos can't differentiate between botspam, trolling and actual hopium (heh). I tested two different social sentiment tools for work some time last year and there was just a hell lot of false positives/negatives. Keyword detection too simplistic. Especially when Bitcoin is used just as a hashtag on unrelated posts.

davis196

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I've always wondered how this Fear&Greed index is being calculated.Emotions like fear and desires like greed cannot be mathematically measured.
Extreme levels of fear on the Bitcoin market means panic selling.I don't see any panic selling right now.
Actually the price might start recovering slowly back to 50K USD.
I do believe that the price might be pumped back to 50-68K(or even above 70K) when the spring comes.
The Omicron wave will go away,the tensions between the western world and Russia/China will be settled and the global financial markets will face a rush of optimism.I also really hope that the "powers that be" won't launch another FUD attack over Bitcoin/crypto in the first quarter of 2022.

TheGreatPython

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Quote from: ImThour on January 08, 2022, 05:25:46 AM

What do you think how it will play this time? I am sure we are bouncing back from here in a day or so.

So it means if the fear index is at is extreme high level means market at its over sold region and there are possibilities for bounce back? I guess this is the very first time that I come across about the fear and greed index as most of the trading platforms that I am using not having such indicators as far I have checked with them.

I just want to learn and confirm how to make use of these types of all new indicators for market sentiment. Having the extra edge (with the help of all new indicators) must be more essential in trading so that we could take a right decision well in advance than all other traders which will definitely help in a situations like profit booking.

batang_bitcoin

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: batang_bitcoin on January 15, 2022, 04:27:42 PM

Quote from: palle11 on January 15, 2022, 08:30:07 AM

Quote from: batang_bitcoin on January 15, 2022, 04:25:43 AM

It's better to see a lot are fearful than greedy. It's more fearful when we see that there are too many people that are greedy. Just always do what the whales are doing.
And if they're buying then do what they've been doing just like these bloody weeks, that's what they did at the start of the year. They're keeping as many bitcoins as they can and preparing of what's about to come as a bull.

An experienced bitcoin trader should already know how bitcoin movement happen that usually after the bull comes correction and the correction can keep dipping until investors starts to enter again. This was what happened during 2018 to 2020 . Whales may not determine market to move when it is already have not got to support level

Whales are even the ones determining their own position, whether they enter at the peak or at the lowest, they're always the market makers and knows when to enter.
It is what people must do, they just have to re-do what they've been doing as a signal to themselves. Also, it's not just about experienced traders but as well as experienced investors.

There’s a common saying that be more greedy while many are in fear, and looking at the index we are on extreme fear which can be a good opportunity to buy more. For sure whales are also doing great right now, they know what to do and buying is the only option for them, once the market recovers they are the ones who will earn more. We should always follow the whales and learn from this, a dump like this should be treated as an opportunity, the future is still bright for Bitcoin so it will rise again.

Yes, that's the famous Warren Buffett quote. And that's why when many are scared, it's the best time for you to think about buying. Be greedy when you see them scared.
And that's why I'm thinking of buying more and having a plan before the surge of recovery comes again. Maybe for a few altcoins and bitcoin as I'm seeing a few of them that I think will recover more than the dump that has came to them.

Poker Player

legendary

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This indicator, like others, serves as a rough guide but little more. The regularities plotted on the OP chart are not useful for predicting anything. We have seen it last year with the Bitcoin price predictions based on similarity between cycles, they are regularities that we plot and seem to us that they will continue to happen the same in the future... until they are not fulfilled.

michellee

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When the market is dropping, many people panic and do cut lose their coins, not just bitcoin but altcoin too, because they do not want to see them lose. So it is normal if the fear and greed will always change and if right now, the fear becomes 10, maybe many people really fear to see bitcoin will drop deeper and they will lose a big amount. If they know how to manage their investment and have a strong hand to hold their bitcoin and use the moment to buy more bitcoin, they will not get the effect of the index.

pooya87

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Every time we see a situation like this build up in bitcoin market we end up seeing a purge where the weak hands and panic sellers sell their bitcoins and get out. This creates a drop which we already had and a phase where price doesn't go up or down for a long time (can be called an accumulation phase). This always leads to a big jump after some time followed by a bigger jump as the same panic sellers rush to buy bitcoin at a much higher price so that they don't "miss out".

Dave1

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Quote from: batang_bitcoin on January 15, 2022, 04:27:42 PM

Quote from: palle11 on January 15, 2022, 08:30:07 AM

Quote from: batang_bitcoin on January 15, 2022, 04:25:43 AM

It's better to see a lot are fearful than greedy. It's more fearful when we see that there are too many people that are greedy. Just always do what the whales are doing.
And if they're buying then do what they've been doing just like these bloody weeks, that's what they did at the start of the year. They're keeping as many bitcoins as they can and preparing of what's about to come as a bull.

An experienced bitcoin trader should already know how bitcoin movement happen that usually after the bull comes correction and the correction can keep dipping until investors starts to enter again. This was what happened during 2018 to 2020 . Whales may not determine market to move when it is already have not got to support level

Whales are even the ones determining their own position, whether they enter at the peak or at the lowest, they're always the market makers and knows when to enter.
It is what people must do, they just have to re-do what they've been doing as a signal to themselves. Also, it's not just about experienced traders but as well as experienced investors.

There’s a common saying that be more greedy while many are in fear, and looking at the index we are on extreme fear which can be a good opportunity to buy more. For sure whales are also doing great right now, they know what to do and buying is the only option for them, once the market recovers they are the ones who will earn more. We should always follow the whales and learn from this, a dump like this should be treated as an opportunity, the future is still bright for Bitcoin so it will rise again.

For me the whales are not yet getting in, if they are, then we should be seeing a good move in the prices. So far it is somewhat in between $40k-$43k, if this is moving to $45k then $50k then we can conclude that they are buying in this dip and taking advantage of the fear index, but they are not. Maybe they are waiting, or just shifting their attention to other markets. But definitely, they are keeping a close eye. Even us ordinary are also doing that, but we are not mover though, unfortunately. Still the whales are, but we can go and ride with them, so to speak.

batang_bitcoin

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Quote from: palle11 on January 15, 2022, 08:30:07 AM

Quote from: batang_bitcoin on January 15, 2022, 04:25:43 AM

It's better to see a lot are fearful than greedy. It's more fearful when we see that there are too many people that are greedy. Just always do what the whales are doing.
And if they're buying then do what they've been doing just like these bloody weeks, that's what they did at the start of the year. They're keeping as many bitcoins as they can and preparing of what's about to come as a bull.

An experienced bitcoin trader should already know how bitcoin movement happen that usually after the bull comes correction and the correction can keep dipping until investors starts to enter again. This was what happened during 2018 to 2020 . Whales may not determine market to move when it is already have not got to support level

Whales are even the ones determining their own position, whether they enter at the peak or at the lowest, they're always the market makers and knows when to enter.
It is what people must do, they just have to re-do what they've been doing as a signal to themselves. Also, it's not just about experienced traders but as well as experienced investors.

rhomelmabini

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No God or Kings, only BITCOIN.

Quote from: Baofeng on January 15, 2022, 10:38:21 AM

Quote from: rhomelmabini on January 15, 2022, 09:33:37 AM

Quote from: pinggoki on January 12, 2022, 03:08:59 AM

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 12, 2022, 12:00:36 AM

Fear is low, will take another 20-30% correction to get the panic selling started. Lots of people got in on the bull run and really think the total crypto market cap can double or even triple in the coming months.

I don't know about that but I think that people are starting to panic sell already if not have done it already, pretty sure that a lot have panic sold when bitcoin dipped in 40k but you're right that it's a bit low but a low fear index don't mean that there's not a lot who has already sold. Hopefully many people deserving of profit, get something out of this current situation.

The question is why? Are they panicking over Omicron? Well, that's something panicking about but I think people should know in the first place that even at the start of the pandemic Bitcoin has been x30 up during that dip and if they ever sold then it's another mistake from paper hands. I am hoping this is just a bear trap or something and having this extreme fear may consider a buying opportunity as well.

It's normal though, I mean it is a new variant much worst that Delta so it's new and people are going to panic because it's unknown and we don't know the effects of it. So the market was really affected by it and we are still in the process of recovery, but it will take some time though as the sentiments of the market or the fear index is 10 as per OP. Although they tool is not to be used as a gauge in my opinion.

I know it's a normal thing but hopeful this too shall pass and whatever might happen from here on out we will still gonna make it. I know this isn't the best tool to rely on as it's too broad and even if we past the 10 or the extreme fear in short amount of time there's still chance that it may comeback again in this level. Not that I'm too engaged right now but I'm still waiting on the sidelines and ready on what scenario may play.

wxa7115

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Bitcoin is GOD

Quote from: cafucafucafu on January 08, 2022, 03:32:18 PM

It's funny how people are panicking right now, and these are the same people who were FOMOing hard at the top.

At the end of the day the bull market was always going to be unsustainable, and everyone should have known that. There was no way that BTC was going to grow at 300% APY no matter how much people try to convince you otherwise.

People lost a lot of rationality during this bull market due to the Fed's easy monetary policy and QE. Now that is reversing, overleveraged traders will be in for a rude shock, as well as retail investors who only know low interest rate environments as the norm.

That makes sense, I was wondering why the fear index was so high when in my opinion bitcoin is not doing anything to justify such a strong reaction from traders and investors.

But if what those people are fearing is that the printing machine slows down and they are caught in a leveraged trade then it makes sense they are afraid, after all even when we are during a bull market the price of bitcoin can go down at any moment, and when that happens you better have a solid stop loss and money management strategy, otherwise the losses that can be incurred are massive.

Baofeng

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Quote from: rhomelmabini on January 15, 2022, 09:33:37 AM

Quote from: pinggoki on January 12, 2022, 03:08:59 AM

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 12, 2022, 12:00:36 AM

Fear is low, will take another 20-30% correction to get the panic selling started. Lots of people got in on the bull run and really think the total crypto market cap can double or even triple in the coming months.

I don't know about that but I think that people are starting to panic sell already if not have done it already, pretty sure that a lot have panic sold when bitcoin dipped in 40k but you're right that it's a bit low but a low fear index don't mean that there's not a lot who has already sold. Hopefully many people deserving of profit, get something out of this current situation.

The question is why? Are they panicking over Omicron? Well, that's something panicking about but I think people should know in the first place that even at the start of the pandemic Bitcoin has been x30 up during that dip and if they ever sold then it's another mistake from paper hands. I am hoping this is just a bear trap or something and having this extreme fear may consider a buying opportunity as well.

It's normal though, I mean it is a new variant much worst that Delta so it's new and people are going to panic because it's unknown and we don't know the effects of it. So the market was really affected by it and we are still in the process of recovery, but it will take some time though as the sentiments of the market or the fear index is 10 as per OP. Although they tool is not to be used as a gauge in my opinion.

Ararbermas

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Activity: 2016

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I don't know if fear and greed index and candles stick has the same thing when it comes technical analysis, because you if yes we cannot say market will bouncing base only on that structure, i mean we need more results like as usual since the graph is showing a not clear hig highs. Just saying because to be honest i can't understand and at the same time why there's a 19 then after is 10 even the last price price is higher. Lol please enlighten me.. Grin

rhomelmabini

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No God or Kings, only BITCOIN.

Quote from: pinggoki on January 12, 2022, 03:08:59 AM

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 12, 2022, 12:00:36 AM

Fear is low, will take another 20-30% correction to get the panic selling started. Lots of people got in on the bull run and really think the total crypto market cap can double or even triple in the coming months.

I don't know about that but I think that people are starting to panic sell already if not have done it already, pretty sure that a lot have panic sold when bitcoin dipped in 40k but you're right that it's a bit low but a low fear index don't mean that there's not a lot who has already sold. Hopefully many people deserving of profit, get something out of this current situation.

The question is why? Are they panicking over Omicron? Well, that's something panicking about but I think people should know in the first place that even at the start of the pandemic Bitcoin has been x30 up during that dip and if they ever sold then it's another mistake from paper hands. I am hoping this is just a bear trap or something and having this extreme fear may consider a buying opportunity as well.

Topic: Bitcoin Fear Index at 10 (Read 408 times)