Bitcoin Food for Thought!!! (Bear Market Special)

taufik123

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Quote from: virasisog on June 23, 2022, 02:00:16 PM

Quote from: taufik123 on June 23, 2022, 12:52:41 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on June 23, 2022, 10:51:52 AM

You are actually right because I could have done the same thing yet I didn't do it because even I didn't expect the market to go full bear mode.
In fact, now I remember making a prediction when the market dipped below $40k and recovered to $47k that the market will keep rising from here.
But eventually it dumped harder and here we are now. Expect the unexpected because that's what crypto is.

it's very normal, your predictions are not completely wrong, it's just that right now the market is being manipulated by those who have a lot of money. Especially with several FUDs that have been distributed, making the market situation even more chaotic.

No one expects the Market to be in full bear mode, except for those who are ready with the rest of their money. Crypto is unpredictable, anything can happen in crypto overnight. We must be smarter to make strategies and make good money management. After a bear market, there will be a bull market. Don't think too much about it, just go with the flow.

Different seasons will always approach the market and we must have the courage to deal with them. We can predict yet we can't control the possible things that could happen so we must always be ready for it. Cryptocurrency is volatile and the prices seem like a roller coaster ride and if we aren't emotionally prepared for the possible changes, we could lose a lot.

a volatile market like a roller coaster is very real, when the market goes into bearish mode as it is today, many people will panic why the price keeps dropping. but now is a good opportunity to increase their assets.
Psychology will indeed affect us if we are not ready, therefore good management is needed so that psychology is not disturbed. Panic too much will only do harm.

virasisog

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Quote from: taufik123 on June 23, 2022, 12:52:41 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on June 23, 2022, 10:51:52 AM

You are actually right because I could have done the same thing yet I didn't do it because even I didn't expect the market to go full bear mode.
In fact, now I remember making a prediction when the market dipped below $40k and recovered to $47k that the market will keep rising from here.
But eventually it dumped harder and here we are now. Expect the unexpected because that's what crypto is.

it's very normal, your predictions are not completely wrong, it's just that right now the market is being manipulated by those who have a lot of money. Especially with several FUDs that have been distributed, making the market situation even more chaotic.

No one expects the Market to be in full bear mode, except for those who are ready with the rest of their money. Crypto is unpredictable, anything can happen in crypto overnight. We must be smarter to make strategies and make good money management. After a bear market, there will be a bull market. Don't think too much about it, just go with the flow.

Different seasons will always approach the market and we must have the courage to deal with them. We can predict yet we can't control the possible things that could happen so we must always be ready for it. Cryptocurrency is volatile and the prices seem like a roller coaster ride and if we aren't emotionally prepared for the possible changes, we could lose a lot.

taufik123

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Quote from: pawanjain on June 23, 2022, 10:51:52 AM

You are actually right because I could have done the same thing yet I didn't do it because even I didn't expect the market to go full bear mode.
In fact, now I remember making a prediction when the market dipped below $40k and recovered to $47k that the market will keep rising from here.
But eventually it dumped harder and here we are now. Expect the unexpected because that's what crypto is.

it's very normal, your predictions are not completely wrong, it's just that right now the market is being manipulated by those who have a lot of money. Especially with several FUDs that have been distributed, making the market situation even more chaotic.

No one expects the Market to be in full bear mode, except for those who are ready with the rest of their money. Crypto is unpredictable, anything can happen in crypto overnight. We must be smarter to make strategies and make good money management. After a bear market there will be a bull market. Don't think too much about it, just go with the flow.

pawanjain

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Quote from: Henrobakkara on June 22, 2022, 11:54:19 AM

Even though I do understand what you are getting at, Investors and traders alike have their different reasons for how they keep their cryptocurrency assets, whether in the CEX or in personal wallets. That said, the same way you think of it, people could have sold at $60k and bought back around $30k, but we have noticed that the market dropped way below that to around $17k+ actually, and if you have bought around $30k and still seeing the market continue to drop wouldn't you have panic sold again? Thinking you could have sold around $60k, most people didn't believe that the market was going to go full Bear mode from there, in fact, people were still saying it would reverse to $100k but that didn't happen.

You are actually right because I could have done the same thing yet I didn't do it because even I didn't expect the market to go full bear mode.
In fact, now I remember making a prediction when the market dipped below $40k and recovered to $47k that the market will keep rising from here.
But eventually it dumped harder and here we are now. Expect the unexpected because that's what crypto is.

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In fact, now the entire market is food for thought. Do not think that bitcoin is the only place you should pay attention to. This is rather the tip of the iceberg.

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Quote from: pawanjain on June 22, 2022, 10:49:45 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 19, 2022, 11:26:49 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on June 19, 2022, 11:41:40 AM

~
That hit me hard. It's the same people like us who "bought back" at right times multiple times and are now the whales.
I never sold my bitcoins. I only sold some of them when I had the necessity but otherwise I kept HODLing on to the rest.
If only I had sold and bought back then I could have accumulated more coins. But then I am happy to not lose those coins by not buying back.
I still have a chance to buy more right now while it's low and keep accumulating. May be I may sell later at peak and buy more later again.

Beware that you have to find a good balance between selling, buying, buying back and HODLing. After all using exchanges is always risky, trading is an extra risk on top of it. I personally dedicate a small portion of my bitcoins to trading which is why when Bittrex scammed me and stole my coins I wasn't devastated, that was simply because I was trading with a small amount that I could afford to lose.

If you get over that, trading could give you some good profit. For example I sold a small amount above $30k and bought back above $20k and I'm happy with the profit I earned regardless of what the price currently is.

So that basically means you have a little portion of your portfolio on an exchange for active trading while the rest is in a wallet.
So a major portion of your portfolio is still untouched which again means your portfolio must be down by 70% too.
Does that make you feel stressed or haven't you wished that you could have sold all of it above $60k and bought back around $30k.

Even though I do understand what you are getting at, Investors and traders alike have their different reasons for how they keep their cryptocurrency assets, whether in the CEX or in personal wallets. That said, the same way you think of it, people could have sold at $60k and bought back around $30k, but we have noticed that the market dropped way below that to around $17k+ actually, and if you have bought around $30k and still seeing the market continue to drop wouldn't you have panic sold again? Thinking you could have sold around $60k, most people didn't believe that the market was going to go full Bear mode from there, in fact, people were still saying it would reverse to $100k but that didn't happen.

pawanjain

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Nothing lasts forever

Quote from: pooya87 on June 19, 2022, 11:26:49 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on June 19, 2022, 11:41:40 AM

~
That hit me hard. It's the same people like us who "bought back" at right times multiple times and are now the whales.
I never sold my bitcoins. I only sold some of them when I had the necessity but otherwise I kept HODLing on to the rest.
If only I had sold and bought back then I could have accumulated more coins. But then I am happy to not lose those coins by not buying back.
I still have a chance to buy more right now while it's low and keep accumulating. May be I may sell later at peak and buy more later again.

Beware that you have to find a good balance between selling, buying, buying back and HODLing. After all using exchanges is always risky, trading is an extra risk on top of it. I personally dedicate a small portion of my bitcoins to trading which is why when Bittrex scammed me and stole my coins I wasn't devastated, that was simply because I was trading with a small amount that I could afford to lose.

If you get over that, trading could give you some good profit. For example I sold a small amount above $30k and bought back above $20k and I'm happy with the profit I earned regardless of what the price currently is.

So that basically means you have a little portion of your portfolio on an exchange for active trading while the rest is in a wallet.
So a major portion of your portfolio is still untouched which again means your portfolio must be down by 70% too.
Does that make you feel stressed or haven't you wished that you could have sold all of it above $60k and bought back around $30k.

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Quote from: Bitstar_coin on June 19, 2022, 01:15:16 AM

There are a lot of panic sellers now and it seems majority are selling below their buying price driving the price even lower. This is a difficult situation for holders for sure because it takes a great deal of effort to be calm in this period. However, those who have long term goal in mind won't worry so much about this dip, only short term investors can't stand it.

To me, 2 years is not such a long time to wait, compare to early btc investors who have been holding btc since 10, 8, 6.... years back and still holding strong. The problem is lack of patience.

This is the period when the popular saying "i believe btc will raise to surpass previous ath" is put to test. I mean since we all know this and history has also shown it to us anytime btc dip what happened next then why people panic so much like btc end has come!

I do have patience and I can wait for sure, but the idea that we will have to wait years, when it was such a close period to buy and hold and profit, right now it feels like we are years away from that does upset me a bit. In the end we are going to profit for sure, and that is why I am feeling fine, but that doesn't change the fact that I have been involved with crypto in much better periods as well and obviously I love those periods a lot more.

This is why I prefer that we would be in a bull run a lot sooner, keep going down doesn't mean I will make a loss, but it means that I would be sad and I would rather see it 100k+ obviously, that is a lot better.

pooya87

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Quote from: pawanjain on June 19, 2022, 11:41:40 AM

~
That hit me hard. It's the same people like us who "bought back" at right times multiple times and are now the whales.
I never sold my bitcoins. I only sold some of them when I had the necessity but otherwise I kept HODLing on to the rest.
If only I had sold and bought back then I could have accumulated more coins. But then I am happy to not lose those coins by not buying back.
I still have a chance to buy more right now while it's low and keep accumulating. May be I may sell later at peak and buy more later again.

Beware that you have to find a good balance between selling, buying, buying back and HODLing. After all using exchanges is always risky, trading is an extra risk on top of it. I personally dedicate a small portion of my bitcoins to trading which is why when Bittrex scammed me and stole my coins I wasn't devastated, that was simply because I was trading with a small amount that I could afford to lose.

If you get over that, trading could give you some good profit. For example I sold a small amount above $30k and bought back above $20k and I'm happy with the profit I earned regardless of what the price currently is.

pawanjain

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Nothing lasts forever

Quote from: pooya87 on June 16, 2022, 03:45:16 AM

I've always said that there is no problem with selling bitcoin, I'd go as far as saying there is even no problem with panic selling bitcoin either. The problem is not buying back soon after. Imagine if this person who panic sold below $20 had bought back when the panic sell ended and before the price started shooting back up again.

It's the same scenario repeating itself every time we have a drop. A large number of weak hands panic sell but they don't buy back, only a smaller percentage of people are buying these days. People who would be called whales a couple of years later.

That hit me hard. It's the same people like us who "bought back" at right times multiple times and are now the whales.
I never sold my bitcoins. I only sold some of them when I had the necessity but otherwise I kept HODLing on to the rest.
If only I had sold and bought back then I could have accumulated more coins. But then I am happy to not lose those coins by not buying back.
I still have a chance to buy more right now while it's low and keep accumulating. May be I may sell later at peak and buy more later again.

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Quote from: Lucius on June 19, 2022, 05:41:35 AM

Quote from: Mpamaegbu on June 18, 2022, 12:06:00 PM

~snipped~

It may be better from the user experience, but if we consider the risk that comes with stablecoins, then this way of trading is not something we should look at in a positive light.

One philosopher opined that nothing was so certain that it couldn't be doubted. I concur with that. To that effect I add that there's no perfect system anywhere in the world. Even life itself bears risk. I mean the mere act of going to bed and waking up is a risk on its own. There are some healthy folks who've passed on in their sleep. In the real sense of it, nothing we do is without risk. Crypto isn't without risk. Bitcoin may bear a safer risk than other cryptos but that isn't saying there aren't any risk associated with it. While we peruse the risk involved with stablecoins, we should also remember that there's no crypto without a risk. I rather fancy my chances with a stablecoin when I sell off than plough it into another altcoin.

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Quote from: Mpamaegbu on June 18, 2022, 12:06:00 PM

Quote from: Lucius on June 16, 2022, 04:06:14 AM

One important difference between 2011 and 2022 is that today people sell BTC for stablecoins

That's true, even up till after 2017 before stablecoins became a thing. The pre-stablecoin era, it was either one sold and bought a shitcoin if one wasn't exchanging Bitcoin directly to fiat through P2P. It's a whole lot better now. People can easily tether Bitcoin if they feel it's going to dip and they aren't shorting it on margin trading.

It may be better from the user experience, but if we consider the risk that comes with stablecoins, then this way of trading is not something we should look at in a positive light. People have confidence in something just because it suits them, but they don't understand what the risk is because it's an indisputable fact that Most Stablecoins Can Be Frozen, Even in Your Own Wallets.

People who say they don't believe in fiat and replace it with Bitcoin and then sell it for something that is actually a privatized fiat that can be frozen at any time, obviously don't understand what the risk is.

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Quote from: coolcoinz on June 18, 2022, 11:05:15 AM

~At times like this I wonder what I'd do if I were ever to see bitcoin at the level at which I bought for the first time. It would be a scary thing for sure, so I understand all those people who sell when the price hits their level. Imagine buying at 20k, waiting almost 2 years and seeing it again at 19k. Would you buy more or sell and exit the market?

There are a lot of panic sellers now and it seems majority are selling below their buying price driving the price even lower. This is a difficult situation for holders for sure because it takes a great deal of effort to be calm in this period. However, those who have long term goal in mind won't worry so much about this dip, only short term investors can't stand it.

To me, 2 years is not such a long time to wait, compare to early btc investors who have been holding btc since 10, 8, 6.... years back and still holding strong. The problem is lack of patience.

This is the period when the popular saying "i believe btc will raise to surpass previous ath" is put to test. I mean since we all know this and history has also shown it to us anytime btc dip what happened next then why people panic so much like btc end has come!

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on June 16, 2022, 10:38:59 AM

I wouldn't assume that the crash was largely caused by panicking newbies. I'd say it was more likely done by whales and pro traders who saw the stock market crash and decided to pull their money out of Bitcoin too, because it was already in bear market and stock market downsides have correlated with Bitcoin downsides in the past.

Basically you don't need to have a lot of bitcoins to move the market because the bitcoin market is still small. This means whoever sells low will influence the market regardless of whether they are newbies or whales. It is true that beginners are those who are more likely to panic due to lack of experience, but they are the ones who contribute to the market in whatever amount they have.

The actual market is not completely dominated by whales, so traders may follow their moves and if it does then panic will make the red candle pop again. Look how hot the market is right now where the percentage decline has reached more than 72%. Bitcoin may still drop lower, so this is a special opportunity for those who know how the market works.

Mpamaegbu

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Quote from: Lucius on June 16, 2022, 04:06:14 AM

One important difference between 2011 and 2022 is that today people sell BTC for stablecoins

That's true, even up till after 2017 before stablecoins became a thing. The pre-stablecoin era, it was either one sold and bought a shitcoin if one wasn't exchanging Bitcoin directly to fiat through P2P. It's a whole lot better now. People can easily tether Bitcoin if they feel it's going to dip and they aren't shorting it on margin trading. Just sell off and set the capital aside in wait for a dip to buy back. Those who will regret this panic move now are those who after selling off refuse to buy back. Bitcoin will definitely rise from this crash. I've seen this happen many times. It's nothing new.

coolcoinz

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Quote from: avikz on June 16, 2022, 05:04:59 AM

That's really funny! $20 worth of bitcoins in 2011 could have made the holder a millionaire today. But pessimism kicked in and the opportunity is lost. I remember I have done the same thing with ETH because I actually had a chance to buy ETH at $3. But I was skeptical about its future and didn't buy. I could have become a millionaire by now based on the investable surplus I had back in that time. Bow trying to correct that mistake by buying at every dip for longer time, probably for my retirement.

We are joking with a friend of mine that he bought the most expensive SSD in the world. It was in 2016 and his old drive gave up and we wanted to play some online shooter, or something and he spend somewhere around 0.5BTC for one. He had some BTC left and in 2021 he bought himself a new motorcycle that costed less than that SSD a few years back.

At times like this I wonder what I'd do if I were ever to see bitcoin at the level at which I bought for the first time. It would be a scary thing for sure, so I understand all those people who sell when the price hits their level. Imagine buying at 20k, waiting almost 2 years and seeing it again at 19k. Would you buy more or sell and exit the market?

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Quote from: KaliLinux on June 18, 2022, 02:49:04 AM

Don't be too sure about that

someone just told me that it is a mistake Bitcoiners make

Quote

Here is the mistake bitcoiners make, Past Performance is no guarantee of Future Profit.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.60387089
It is obvious that some pretending Investors don't really understand what that means and once there is a dip and further dips in the market they end up catching all those losses you just mentioned, "sell low and buy high" cos they will come back once the market is in an uptrend again.

Isn't that what TA is all about? It uses history to predict future moves of an asset.

It's not even about bitcoin but all other markets. Why do you think investors know if they should buy or sell something. Usually they sell if there's a repeating pattern of bad performance which they call weakness and they buy when the asset shows strength breaking resistance levels. With bitcoin there's halving that increases its value and the fact that the number of bitcoins is limited to 21 million.

Also, I wouldn't call DCA "catching losses". It's just meant for people with at least 3 years of holding in mind. Some of us are not traders, we don't watch charts or hold coins on exchanges so that we can sell them when the price goes down. We buy in an uptrend which you could call "catching wins" and in a downtrend.

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Quote from: pealr12 on June 18, 2022, 01:03:21 AM

Some people are just too pessimistic towards the bear market and that's why they fail to take advantage of the cheap price, they spend time being negative towards the price and spread fud about btc going to zero or will never go back to previous ath. History has proven time and time again btc will always surpass previous ath and set a new record.

We have a lot of sell low and buy high investors in the crypto space, it is in their nature unfortunately.

Don't be too sure about that

someone just told me that it is a mistake Bitcoiners make

Quote

Here is the mistake bitcoiners make, Past Performance is no guarantee of Future Profit.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.60387089
It is obvious that some pretending Investors don't really understand what that means and once there is a dip and further dips in the market they end up catching all those losses you just mentioned, "sell low and buy high" cos they will come back once the market is in an uptrend again.

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Fear will always be one of the most important emotions in the market. It allows people to not see the reality of crypto and focus on the possibility of everything going badly. Anxiety is what we feel when something is not happening right now, but a potential to happen in the future and fearing of a thing that hasn't happened yet.

Basically it's the fear of murphy's law, and saying that if bitcoin going down to 1k is the worst possible thing, and 100k is the best thing, then it will go to 1k because good things never happen and it's always bad. Having that type of pessimistic approach to the future of the market makes people do things that will cause them to lose money.

pealr12

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Some people are just too pessimistic towards the bear market and that's why they fail to take advantage of the cheap price, they spend time being negative towards the price and spread fud about btc going to zero or will never go back to previous ath. History has proven time and time again btc will always surpass previous ath and set a new record.

We have a lot of sell low and buy high investors in the crypto space, it is in their nature unfortunately.

Topic: Bitcoin Food for Thought!!! (Bear Market Special) (Read 586 times)