Topic: Bitcoin for Less Than $4000 - Welcome Everyone That Missed the Jamie Dimon Boat (Read 462 times)

apologies, I just understood your most recent post, that alters the "magic number". I wasn't aware that the magic number changes that intensely. You really are amazing dude THANK YOU!!!! I've been FRANKED lol

There's always going to be people predicting lower lows that never happen. For instance this PhD in economics:



These are the guys that become permabears because they are too salty and getting it wrong and have too much ego to admit they were wrong.

Im not saying we've already bottomed but as of right we are definitely oversold and the fundamentals haven't changed. I believe we will retest $5000 again followed by another crash to weed out the final weak hands, then a year of "bitcoin is dead" and the recovery will start creating the next cycle of FOMO along the way for the next halving.

Hello Franky1,

First of all I want to say thank you for your very insightful posts. You have greatly helped my understanding of the bitcoin ecosystem.

I have a couple questions:

1. Bitmain says that t15's have a hash rate of 23TH you stated that they have a hash rate of 28. Is this including the effects of Asicboost?

2. How does bitcoin mining difficulty factor in to this equation, or is the mining difficulty reflected the the exahash/asic calculation?


Thank you for you time and consideration in reading this,

Cocoadreamboy

Apologies for being a noob, I only joined bitcoin talk to deal with an escrow dispute a few months ago

It's a really interesting way of looking at things but it's easy to see why for the most part it would make sense. As long as enough miners are mining bitcoin because they want it, rather than to instantly sell it then it's clear to see how the mining cost shouldn't really ever drop below market price, at least not for an extended time.

Do you know of any simple way to keep track of the current mining costs? I'm far from being the most tech savvy so a lot of your calculations went over my head.

im saying a limited few can afford to be whales and should they decide thy could push it that low.
im saying limited few.
i am not saying confident the price will drop that low as the buy pressure from others is at play too.

EG those that have higher mining costs wont want to waste electric mining at higher costs. so they will use their money to just buy cheap coins. thus resisting against the whales.

anyway. this is all temporary data and it shifts alot.
already i have rechecked bitmain and now there is this
T15(asic boost) = 23thash @$950~
S15(asic boost) = 28thash @$1450~

so using the now advertised S15 now has a magic multiplier of 118.. similar as previous cheap s9's
and the T15 magic number is 109.
and second hand S9 sold at $390 is magic number 104

which at todays LOW hashrate is 36exa..
S9=3744(delivery started this week)
s9=3996(prvious batch already mining)
T15=3924(delivery christmas+ but "QA testing" gives whales coins)
S15=4248(delivery christmas+ but "QA testing" gives whales coins)

yep they want people to buy up their old S9's so lowered the S9's and ramped up the the s15's(savvy)

so we are already staying above $3000... and infact moving a lil higher(mining hash/cost) and away from $3000. even when there was a chance(market whales) of going down to $3000

again anyone making a loss mining will start to put some buying power into bitcoin to move prices up while cheap

my summary point
watching the mining costs has shown more correlation to bottomline markets.. than them people who self draw their own trend lines by hand (no stats just eyes and hand drawing) on market history charts

I don't think that bitcoin prices will fall as a result of "failures cascading". Even though I do expect prices to continue to falter for quite a bit before it eventually stabilises out, I think that the main reason is still panic dumping due to the bearish sentiments.

But obviously, right now, prices are extremely low and to me, it's a great price to enter into the long term market with.

With regards to potential further corrections, I honestly think that the best strategy right now is to start accumulating in equal chunks with dollar cost averaging. There are no guarantees that prices will be going to be that much further down from this point on even though I expect it to, so instead of trying to time the bottom completely right, dollar cost averaging makes more sense imho.

Miners with sunk costs in mining operations aren't just going start buying coins. Miners don't just have endless capital to throw into a bleeding market, particular after having already made loss-making capital investments. Yes, hash rate will just drop.


What's the point of this analysis? A month ago, you were going on about how the bottom line costs were near $6,000. Looks like that didn't matter at all, because the market dumped below $3,500 yesterday.

Not everyone is sad about this price drop. Many people are peeved about missing out on many boats so this is a good chance to jump in. I am certainly accumulating in a more intelligent manner, stocking up on less shitcoins and focusing on more profitable coins

So from all of that, am I right in assuming that you'd confidently say that the bottom will be somewhere around $3000? The only interesting thing to note. What if the miners that were priced out instead decided not to buy bitcoin, meaning the price doesn't increase above mining cost, wouldn't we then see difficulty decrease, lowering the mining cost?

The question is what does it mean? is all buyer demand completely gone? will it return?

Not quite. 19% on Bitstamp or 46% on Bitfinex was a good deal stronger off the lows in 2015.

But the point was more about how this time, we immediately went back to consolidating at the lows. At the 2015 bottom, we immediately trended upwards for weeks. This time, we were bleeding back near $4,000 within 24 hours. It was obvious we were heading lower. And here we are, hitting $3,600 now......

Not sure what you are referring to.
here is the 2015 final dip.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20141025&end=20150124

Where is the "sharp rebound"? BTW 4000 to 4500-4600 is basically an equivalent.

Now everyone is in bearish mode and i know that this is the correct time to start accumulating buying bitcoins as i know that now the next upward wave will come and very soon we will be seeing price moving above $8k in this month.

Everyone might be turning bearish, but it feels a lot more like the "fear" stage of the crash than "capitulation" or "despair." There's still obviously lots of people in pain, and lots of threads asking where the bottom will be. Those people haven't sold yet; they're just underwater. They'll sell the bottom later.

Bitcoin historically bottoms with a final sharp dip followed by a massive rebound. There was no rebound this time; we're just consolidating at the lows. No classic bottom to be seen here.

The Jamie Dimon indicator is one of my favorites:



Mainstream media are now reporting clickbaity articles about how "Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffet and Bill Gates were all right" (but they don't mention the 99% of times they are wrong).

The average moonboy idiot that bought because he saw how "this Bitcoin thing is going to the moon" on CNBC back then are also claiming "Bitcoin is dead" and "the dream is over". Most of these guys may have been shaken out of the market now.

Im still hoping for $3k prices but the fact that pretty much everyone that must be bearish for the market to bottom is pretty much bearish already, feels as if we have bottomed or we are really close (again perhaps after that final sharp dip with a fast correction which is how Bitcoin has always bottomed historically)

not really.


what happens is. if someoone has tanked the price below mining costs. 2 decisions are made
1. its cheaper to buy bitcoin than waste money on new hardware/electric/current mining costs to try pushing hashrate up, so lets just buy btc = price rise
2. lets find more efficient mining, or shut down some hash power as costs vs reward is not there.
=hashrate decrease until profitable again


in the end mining BOTTOMLINE mining costs end up going below btc market price.. 99.9% of the time (bar id say a few instances in the last year(few hours) of surprise market drama)

most mining farms (main majority of smart business minded pools) pre-empt events EG. they have 12 month contracts to only increase X% a fornight and totally ignore spikes and dips.
EG they didnt ramp up hashpower during the $20k event

you will notice that although new asics were starting to be tested over a month ago. the swap by some pools and selling og cheap second hand asics happened earlier seems the pools a month ago decided to reduce hashpower BEFORE the price movements. thus less hashpower and more efficiency = less cost = able to sell for less = price went down
(also VC funding helped. and selling asics = more btc in hands of those asic seller means having to convert more to btc)

all in all this is just a temporary drama event

take yesterdays hashrate of ~38exa thats above $3415 bottomline costs
take todays hashrate of ~43exa thats above $3864 bottomline costs

i was and am hoping to see hashpower increasing and some buy pressure on the markets before end of december

but for now. yay nice discount coins price.

All the bagholders,who bought BTC at 17K USD are probably having nightmares right now.
I feel sorry for them,but some lessons should be learned....
I don't care about Jamie Dimon,but I kinda miss kwuckduck with his "the end of bitcoin" type of FUD posts around the forum.

Great calculations, I can tell a lot of thought and effort went in to that. Do you know traditionally how much of a disparity there has been between the minimum mining cost of bitcoin and the actual price? Has there ever been an extended period whereby it was unprofitable to mine?

with all that said. i still kinda was hoping after the T15 announcement, hashrates would have gone up to 65exa before delivery of majority of t15(which would be in late december) to of stayed on track of the above $5800 bottom.

pools running new gen T15 asics. and with bitcoins hashrate going down to 34exa.
puts the break even cost for those LUCKY limited number of miners at
34exa*89.88=$3056

but this $3059 is just a break even for the lucky few running new t15'
and for the very bottom hashrate recently
emphasis again its the BOTTOM LINE break even for limited amount of people with most efficient miners with the very bottomline hashrate recently
(majority of public not getting delivery of t15 until late december)

as for those running s9's bought at $450 last month multiple of hashrate is 111 $3774
as for those running s9's bought at $850 in summer multiple of hashrate is 154 $5236
as for those running s9's bought at $2000 late 2017 multiple of hashrate is 270 (not bothering with most shut down by now)

how this was calculated to find the magic 89.88 multiplier number for easy cost bottom line

hashrate 34exa = 34,000,000thash
34m thash / hashrate of asic(28thash)

34000000/28=1214285.714285714

1.214m asics * $950 cost of asic unit
1214285.714285714*$950=$1153571428.57 of hardware

$1.153bill of hardware 26 fortnights / 2016 blocks /12.5btc = cost of hardware per btc
yes i based it on spreading hardware cost over average year lifecycle of hardware
1153571428.57/26/2016/12.5=$1760.64 of hardware cost for pools using T15

now the electric (based at 5cents... yea some can get cheaper but include facility lease and labour. 5cent reasonable)
1,214,286 asics *1.6kwh * 0.05 = electric $ per hour at 5 cents
1214285.714285714*1.6=$97142.86 (now multiply it by 24 then by 14 to get a fair fortnightly cost)
97142.86*24*14=32640000 for a fortnight (now divide that by 2016 blocks and 12.5btc)
32640000/2016/12.5=1295.24

now hardware and electric=cost of mining using T15's
1295.24+1760.64=$3055.88 cost per btc

you may see me multiply by 24 then 14 then divide by 2016 divide by 12.5
instead of just divide by 6 divide by 12.5
i done this because bitcoins rule is 2016 blocks a fortnight. not 6 blocks an hour(10min)
some people multiply by 24 multiply by 365 and then multply down by 26 fortnights then 2016 blocks then 12.5btc
which gives a ~$3 variance. thats because theres a difference of a few days. of the year compared to 26 fortnights
(you can choose how anal you want to be over the math)


now this ~$3056 is based on a variable of the exa hash.. so if you divide how many exahash. your left with a constant
of cost per single exa hash.. which is the magic constant to do easy mining cost of T15 mining
3055.88/34=89.88

so 89.88 is the magic constant for T15 mining.
you can double checking with the lengthy math of different hashpower.
but youll still see the same result if just taking the hashrate in exa and multiplying by 89.88 give or take a few pennies

---

now with that said
$3056 is the BOTTOMLINE break even per btc for the lucky few with the most efficient miners.
the range of mining costs is
s9@$450(111)=$3774
s9@$850(154)=$5236

so $3056-$5236 is the majority of range of mining costs. so dont take $3056 as average or majority. just think of it as the minimum BASELINE for 34exahash mining for a lucky few