Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 33. (Read 540258 times)

nice post.  geezus, you sound like me.  but what did lucif call us?

Is The NASDAQ Close To The End Of The World?
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Yes, and it should have the opposite effect.  People should hold their EUR knowing it will buy more BTC (from the USD order book) the next day.  Perhaps even sell for EUR and hope to buy back cheaper because USD is the dominant currency in BTC trading.  Unless they think BTC will be cost at least 0.5% more in USD the next day.  Which means the EUR, GBP and AUD buyers must have very strong belief in price increase.  And I assume the opposite is true for the USD users who are selling, because they are not selling for EUR, GBP or AUD.

by the way, over the past 5-7 days, the Euro gained 3-4 % vs. the USD. Did you consider this as potential reason?

Obviously, which is one reason to buy coins.  Deposits of that size triggers identity verification, and if you just use MtGox as a currency exchange between fiat currencies you don't get any anonymity.  Just a very expensive currency exchange.  At least 4% including two trade fees and the known rate change, which is even more than PayPal charges.  People using AUD, GBP and EUR are buying coins, not changing from one fiat currency to another.

This change of sentiment happened after Bitcoin-Central announced their deal with a PSP.  This was even announced on the BBC, and may have increased belief in and knowledge about Bitcoin in Europe, while it seems some Americans have reacted negatively to the news.  Many of my regular customers bought a lot after the news came out (NOK and EUR), and put me temporarily out of funds on the exchanges (doesn't happen often).  AUD users have always been buying more than selling, and it may be that they as well had a positive reaction to the news.   This is just one possible explanation.

Some users may be quite happy to pay the 3% for the user-defined anonymity features of bitcoins ....

That doesn't make sense.  Paying 2.5% + trade fee for currency conversion?  And often when it is already known that the AUD/GBP/EUR price will be much better the next day, making the effective conversion fee more than 3% in the USD -> currency direction?  (MtGox only change their exchange fee once a day.)  Even credit cards have better exchange rates, and the timing is exceptionally bad.

You seem to be approaching the analysis with the assumption that the motivation for trade is buyiing/selling bitcoins.

It may make sense if you consider that the large trades are for users who want to change from one fiat currency to another, and they are using bitcoin/MtGox as the vehicle for doing that (for various reasons). I.e. what you are describing might be simply the market moving money out of euros/aud/gbp and into/repatriating usd?

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Comparing the price at two exchanges directly doesn't work for several reasons.  BTC-E is always lower as well.  Bitcurex and Intersango are ususally below MtGox EUR price (compared to USD it is more mixed).

Currently the USD is doing much worse than any of the listed currencies.  This may actually be a reason why people choose to keep their own currencies when transferring to MtGox.

I don't think mining is an important factor here.  The volume in those three currencies alone is far higher than the mining rate.  Could be trade balance, if the sellers trade in USD and the people who pay with Bitcoin come from all over the world.  Winter in Europe creates a high demand for alpaca socks, of course. 

I have noticed the exact opposite with CAD with Canadian buyers being very pessimistic with Virtex, the Canadian exchange trading almost always a few % below the MTGox USD price. In Canada's case my theory is that the cold Canadian winter combined with relatively low electricity rates makes Canada very attractive for Bitcoin mining. This leads to Canada being a net exporter of Bitcoins.

Australia should be a net importer for the exact opposite reason to Canada being a net exporter, especially during the Australian summer. One can also argue that the EU could be a net Bitcoin importer because of fear over the Euro.

I have been watching the trade feed from MtGox for currencies other than USD, and have noticed very different behaviour for traders using USD compared to other currencies.  While the USD traders keep selling, often large amounts in bulk, traders keep buying in other currencies.  GBP, EUR and AUD are especially active.  The prices in GBP, EUR and AUD are almost constantly 2.5% higher, which is where the currency's bid meets USD ask.  (Asks are matched from the USD order book, and exchanged at a 2.5% fee.  This is shown as mixed currency in the feed.)  Large USD sales are often satisfied from bids from the other currencies, and followed by large buys in other currencies.  Recently, when the price hit 13.9 USD, the buying from 13.5 and up was mostly done in non-USD currencies.  Same thing happened when a 10k sale for USD, followed by other large sales in USD, made the price drop below 13 USD.  Large AUD buys pushed the price back up to 13.3 USD.  The last week 18716 BTC was bought in AUD, 10359 BTC bought in GBP and 6767 BTC bought in EUR from the USD order book at a 2.5% fee.  Mostly triggered by bids in those currencies, but also by market sales in USD.  There were no matches in the other direction (where an order from another currency was matched against the bid side of the USD order book).

Is this significant?  Why are the USD users so very pessimistic, while the users of other currencies are so very optimistic?  Is it just dumb users buying BTC in other currencies, while the USD market is speculators selling?  I assume most serious investors would do a currency exchange in their own bank when transferring to get a better rate than the 2.5% MtGox offers.

a bit off topic, but this is an interesting read on the fiscal cliff negotiations:

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/09/opinion/logan-fiscal-cliff/index.html?hpt=ibu_r1

Right, as if you knew it was going to happen.

Let's only highlight when you are right and not when you are wrong.

lol  

Pretty bold statement saying "always". This is a sign that someone has an ego problem.

"My subscribers are ALWAYS one step ahead."

You caused this to happen! 

no worries. my subscribers are always one step ahead. I gave a warning alert just a few minutes before the drop from 13.8 to 13$  :-)

Yep. I noticed when your forecasts do not follow the volume, market shows huge opposite reaction.

People, speculate on that

this is one alternative, indeed

This is special short term update. Awaiting huge bear pennant confirmation with almost all requirements met, including huge negative rsi, macd, volume divergences. Textbook target is $5. Have a nice bitday.

accumulation on the daily chart confirming the bitcoin price rally in the bitcoin chart:
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/