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Vantix

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Quote from: Vispilio on October 01, 2019, 11:53:58 AM

Quote from: 1Referee on September 26, 2019, 08:14:48 AM

It would offer a DCA opportunity, but nothing more than that. It's bearish to see the price close below the 200EMA on the daily without bouncing off it first. In most cases these movements provide a glimpse of what the longer term trend will look like, so unless we make a massive bounce back above $9300 and close a few daily candles there, there is not much point in pushing a bullish narrative.

I expect the price to plummet to $7000-$7500 which will be my first DCA entry point and from there I will reassess the market's behavior for my next move.

Nothing to do with DCA, after such a violent drop, going long in the sub 8000 area would be one of the highest probability trades you can make for the year, and so it turned out to be the case.

Regardless of long term outlook, the bounce was almost guaranteed, now it's not such a high probability play anymore but I expect the recovery to continue to at least above 9000 USD within the next week...

I usually look to increase my BTC holdings in general, but that is a different mindset from intraday trading activities.

Predicting moves of bitcoin is very hard at this moment. There is just too much uncertainty.

PS. Correct me if I'm wrong but decreasing your dollar cost average will lead you to increasing your bitcoin holdings.

Vispilio

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Quote from: 1Referee on September 26, 2019, 08:14:48 AM

It would offer a DCA opportunity, but nothing more than that. It's bearish to see the price close below the 200EMA on the daily without bouncing off it first. In most cases these movements provide a glimpse of what the longer term trend will look like, so unless we make a massive bounce back above $9300 and close a few daily candles there, there is not much point in pushing a bullish narrative.

I expect the price to plummet to $7000-$7500 which will be my first DCA entry point and from there I will reassess the market's behavior for my next move.

Nothing to do with DCA, after such a violent drop, going long in the sub 8000 area would be one of the highest probability trades you can make for the year, and so it turned out to be the case.

Regardless of long term outlook, the bounce was almost guaranteed, now it's not such a high probability play anymore but I expect the recovery to continue to at least above 9000 USD within the next week...

I usually look to increase my BTC holdings in general, but that is a different mindset from intraday trading activities.

1Referee

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Quote from: Vispilio on September 25, 2019, 01:16:09 PM

BTC getting into oversold territory now, this drop can be the last shake down before the strong rally resumes towards possibly a new ATH,

Bitcoin can stay overbought/oversold for quite a long time. Remember that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!

Quote from: Vispilio on September 25, 2019, 01:16:09 PM

I would consider 7500-8000ish USD levels during the next 1-2 weeks as opportune places to incrementally add to your BTC positions

(while keeping some reserves intact in case of an unpredictable catastrophic event)...

It would offer a DCA opportunity, but nothing more than that. It's bearish to see the price close below the 200EMA on the daily without bouncing off it first. In most cases these movements provide a glimpse of what the longer term trend will look like, so unless we make a massive bounce back above $9300 and close a few daily candles there, there is not much point in pushing a bullish narrative.

I expect the price to plummet to $7000-$7500 which will be my first DCA entry point and from there I will reassess the market's behavior for my next move.

Jating

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Quote from: Vispilio on September 25, 2019, 01:16:09 PM

BTC getting into oversold territory now, this drop can be the last shake down before the strong rally resumes towards possibly a new ATH,

I would consider 7500-8000ish USD levels during the next 1-2 weeks as opportune places to incrementally add to your BTC positions

(while keeping some reserves intact in case of an unpredictable catastrophic event)...

I agree about the over sold territory specially in the last couple of months. I'm sure everyone notices the pattern is sideways, so it's either a break out could happen anytime or just book orders are getting thiner by the day.

$75---to $8---'sh levels is possible, although trading volume seems to go up, it doesn't mean that investors are still getting back after a flash crash scare. So for those who really have the capital to get inside today, perhaps it's a good decision and then slowly accumulate when the price goes down again in the next one to two weeks.

Vispilio

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BTC getting into oversold territory now, this drop can be the last shake down before the strong rally resumes towards possibly a new ATH,

I would consider 7500-8000ish USD levels during the next 1-2 weeks as opportune places to incrementally add to your BTC positions

(while keeping some reserves intact in case of an unpredictable catastrophic event)...

Kalemder

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Be A Hope

September 24
Bitcoin is 9730 dollars.
I'm waiting for up from this area.
Now we are free from the downward pressure.
The bull for Bitcoin now ...
Goal 1 10300
Goal 2 10500

slocker

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Quote from: Kalemder on September 20, 2019, 08:01:51 AM

The market is currently pointing to its lower bull. The situation becomes clear in a few days. Currently there is no pressure up-weight balance.

I am enjoying the last 4 btc analysis right now.

This was also fake. Cuz of that 175 mil printed dollars in last few days. That why we had sudden fall and recovery. Think we are in stable run for the moment and that we will see next spike in upcoming month for some 12-13 level for the moment. Dont think we will have something big in next month or two.

Kalemder

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Be A Hope

Quote from: exstasie on September 20, 2019, 10:47:27 AM

Quote from: Kalemder on September 18, 2019, 10:33:41 PM

Quote from: Kalemder on September 12, 2019, 11:16:48 AM

Currently btc 10300 dollars
Downward pressure continues at Bitcoin.
Pressure's a little low. But it goes on.
In my opinion; will make a move up again.
10400-10500 levels.
Maybe he can try higher. (10,700)
I can clearly state that:
This will happen and we will go back to the 9750 band again. (On average)

+++
It's like I said. The movements I've been waiting for. The pressure is relieving itself now. Again, it was a successful analysis.

It was a good call, kudos. That dip below $10K was very short-lived......very strong reaction from buyers! So my bias is getting really bullish now. I figure some sideways coiling is still possible in the coming days, but breaking above the $10,350 area again should trigger a big move.

What do you think?

There is no specific situation yet. I'll only share the signal in obvious situations. There is balance and uncertainty now. This could create a small bull for the altcoin.

Greetings ...

exstasie

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Quote from: Kalemder on September 18, 2019, 10:33:41 PM

Quote from: Kalemder on September 12, 2019, 11:16:48 AM

Currently btc 10300 dollars
Downward pressure continues at Bitcoin.
Pressure's a little low. But it goes on.
In my opinion; will make a move up again.
10400-10500 levels.
Maybe he can try higher. (10,700)
I can clearly state that:
This will happen and we will go back to the 9750 band again. (On average)

+++
It's like I said. The movements I've been waiting for. The pressure is relieving itself now. Again, it was a successful analysis.

It was a good call, kudos. That dip below $10K was very short-lived......very strong reaction from buyers! So my bias is getting really bullish now. I figure some sideways coiling is still possible in the coming days, but breaking above the $10,350 area again should trigger a big move.

What do you think?

Kalemder

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Be A Hope

The market is currently pointing to its lower bull. The situation becomes clear in a few days. Currently there is no pressure up-weight balance.

I am enjoying the last 4 btc analysis right now.

Kalemder

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Be A Hope

Quote from: Kalemder on September 12, 2019, 11:16:48 AM

Quote from: Kalemder on September 05, 2019, 06:43:15 AM

http://prntscr.com/p25ohx
5 Eylül
Şuanda durum bu. 10650-10550 arasında duran bir bitcoinimiz var.
Yakın bir zamanda bu seviyelerin altına önemli bir hareket yapacağını düşünüyorum.
Bir kaç güne kadar 10000-10100 dolar arası ilk hedef seviyesi.
Bu pozisyonun durumuna göre 9750 dolar seviyesi de beklenebilir.
Özetle; yukarı ufak bir sıçrama yapar mı yapmaz mı bilemem ama genel olarak beklenen yön aşağı.

September 12

I've written this before.
Currently btc 10300 dollars
Downward pressure continues at Bitcoin.
Pressure's a little low. But it goes on.
In my opinion; will make a move up again.
10400-10500 levels.
Maybe he can try higher. (10,700)
I can clearly state that:
This will happen and we will go back to the 9750 band again. (On average)

+++
It's like I said. The movements I've been waiting for. The pressure is relieving itself now. Again, it was a successful analysis.

1Referee

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 14, 2019, 11:05:04 AM

can anyone really be shocked anymore by this market? =)

Yes! It's quite funny and weird at the same time, but even people who have gone through the pumps and dumps for years still find themselves trapped one way or another.

The thing is that people adjust themselves to whatever the situation is in the more recent months and discard what happened before that. I have already seen people say that just because the bulls have supported the $10,000 level it's the new bottom. They no longer think about how $6000 last year was more fiercely supported and for a much longer period of time. It still broke.

Just look at how many threads will pop up when $9000 breaks asking why the price has gone down. It's always the same story.

hulla

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Quote from: gantez on September 15, 2019, 08:45:42 AM

Quote from: Reatim on September 15, 2019, 08:29:27 AM

Yeah same point here because the $10,200 is the basis of the price now,for how many weeks now we have Ben stables on this value but we don’t need to be contented since there’s a highest to come

Maybe a break is eminent after that range. It has been around the price for sometime now. I expect an upward movement after this time because we are approaching the ending of the year.

A break is obvious but you shouldn't expect much of an uptrend momentum in the bitcoin market because there's demand force to make that happen because the market will only experience some slightly increase in price just like we experienced a couple of days back till the end of this month.

gantez

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Quote from: Reatim on September 15, 2019, 08:29:27 AM

Yeah same point here because the $10,200 is the basis of the price now,for how many weeks now we have Ben stables on this value but we don’t need to be contented since there’s a highest to come

Maybe a break is eminent after that range. It has been around the price for sometime now. I expect an upward movement after this time because we are approaching the ending of the year.

Reatim

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I believe the $10,200 seem to be a very strong support because price keeping running around there. The resistance of $11,000 might also be tested anytime soon.

Yeah same point here because the $10,200 is the basis of the price now,for how many weeks now we have Ben stables on this value but we don’t need to be contented since there’s a highest to come

For OP..

Thanks for this thread as you are sharing forecast because atleast we can have pattern to expect in future

BitHodler

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 14, 2019, 11:05:04 AM

Maybe that ATH will lead to an even bigger winter, then. And maybe the really smart thing is to liquidate enough at the ATH to reconsolidate in the coming winter cycle.

It's so hard to say beforehand. I personally will front run the all time high by selling some (5% of my stack) around the $17 or $18k mark. Not because I need the funds, but purely because I don't think we'll break it right away.

I can see why the $19.5k mark is something longer term accumulating institutions want to not be broken, so dumps similar to what we had around the $14k mark will be what I prepare for.

At the end of the day, we'll either regret or be happy about the decisions we made. I kinda regret not having paid too much attention to the importance of the $14k level since that was the highest ever monthly close we had. Lips sealed

exstasie

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Quote from: STT on September 14, 2019, 10:15:14 AM

Quote

increasingly likely this is just a time correction......a sideways flag rather than a sharp pullback.

Sounds reasonable but if some arent making money or living in hope of gains then they are sellers, theres always weak hands in the price and they havent yet been shaken out.

And in sideways flags they do get shaken out. People have been very fearful over the past month. Even if the market isn't making new lows, weak hands are selling to accumulators. I'm confident this June-September range = accumulation based on the monthly trend. After enough time has passed (maybe another month?) supply in this range will dry up even if bears don't make a real stand.

Quote from: buwaytress on September 14, 2019, 11:05:04 AM

Yeah, that's the scenario I'm preparing for, even if inside I still want a really cheap Bitcoin to accumulate. It's bittersweet. Sweet because I'd really use a new ATH to liquidate a stash I have, get out of some personal rut. Bitter because although I was really thankful for last year, otherwise I wouldn't have had a chance to get much, it's still far from the right "club membership" I'd like to be in.

The 21 Club? Surely you don't mean the Vladimir Club?! Tongue

buwaytress

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Quote from: exstasie on September 14, 2019, 04:00:46 AM

I wouldn't hold your breath.

I think the market will at least build out a respectable Wave 5 to a new ATH like xxxx123abcxxxx has charted before we get another taste of winter. On the higher time frames (like the monthly) this is a raging bull market that's just spent 2-3 months flushing out profit takers and weak longs. The path of least resistance is north. The market is liable to keep chopping around a while, but in terms of the bigger picture, I'd say we're due to start heading north by next month.

Yeah, that's the scenario I'm preparing for, even if inside I still want a really cheap Bitcoin to accumulate. It's bittersweet. Sweet because I'd really use a new ATH to liquidate a stash I have, get out of some personal rut. Bitter because although I was really thankful for last year, otherwise I wouldn't have had a chance to get much, it's still far from the right "club membership" I'd like to be in.

Maybe that ATH will lead to an even bigger winter, then. And maybe the really smart thing is to liquidate enough at the ATH to reconsolidate in the coming winter cycle.

If you and most charters are right about next month, it's going to be a scramble!

@palle1 can anyone really be shocked anymore by this market? =)

STT

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Quote

increasingly likely this is just a time correction......a sideways flag rather than a sharp pullback.

Sounds reasonable but if some arent making money or living in hope of gains then they are sellers, theres always weak hands in the price and they havent yet been shaken out. Thats ok if we have others taking their place, underlying growth in BTC can do alot but I think there is a large amount of speculation on that already which is why they will sell if a gain is not observed in price or in perception from some news perhaps.
We are living in strange times with negative rates that has never really occurred over a majority of the worlds nations before. We could go back to fiscal regimes of medieval empires and still not find the loopy logic and custom we have enacted right now so who knows, cannonballs will float in mercury which I mean to say its all relative to the contrast occurring in money markets contraction or expansion. There is talk of recession but so far just talk.

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: BitHodler on September 13, 2019, 07:01:45 PM

Quote from: YuginKadoya on September 13, 2019, 11:09:29 AM

I guess we are not getting anywhere than the $10,000 USD mark, And I think this is really a strong floor for the Bitcoin's price,

$10k is a psychologically important support level, so it holds a lot of weight in that regard, but to counter that, it will turn into a major resistance level once the sellers have sold through the buy support and bulls just give up.

If we're completely honest and look back at previous bull runs, the price hasn't had much of a brutal crash this year at all. It has been a steady decline we went through so far, so I'm kinda expecting more to come that will shake out weak hands.

The more people have confidence in $10k to be a floor or level bulls are willing to support all the time (similar to $6k last year), the more likely it is that we can expect a move in the opposite direction. Don't get trapped.

Since this is an important support level for bitcoin I think we can surely say that we might not see any down level instead for this mark, And resistance is pretty much strong right now so just like you say bulls might give up, for the time being, If a lot of weak hands would be shaken by this resistance we might see a slight decrease from time to time,

Quote from: Juggy777 on September 13, 2019, 11:26:33 PM

Quote from: YuginKadoya on September 13, 2019, 11:09:29 AM

I guess we are not getting anywhere than the $10,000 USD mark, And I think this is really a strong floor for the Bitcoin's price, And the high price we may reach if the price pump will be $12,000 USD and if it decreases, $9200 - $9300 mostly in this marks, up to the month of November in my opinion, Well I am guessing that the mark of December will be in the downtrend because of the holiday season more likely if we get a price increase in November the price will drop from $12,000 to $11,000 and if the price is in the downtrend the price will be almost just $9400 to $9100 in my opinion.

@YuginKadoya bitcoin has found new resistance at $9300 levels hence I don’t expect it to breach $9k, on the upside I believe we may see prices rise upwards to $13k or $15k levels in coming months. If you’ll have observed even when the prices were crashing it was able to recover from $9200 to $10300 levels in a short while, and hopefully with the launch of Bakkt prices should rally more.

News: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-charts-aligning-with-bakkt-launch-points-to-a-big-move

It could be and could also be not, but I think if the price would make an effect with the pump it may truly have some rally that may go on with the Bitcoin price, And well resistance can be at $9000 or $10,000 in my opinion.

Topic: Bitcoin Forecasts (Read 481 times)