Topic: Bitcoin foundation - page 3. (Read 807 times)

I've repeatedly stated that 8 million is an ideal and unattainable result. It is estimated that 5 million bitcoins are permanently lost. In that case, the foundation will be formed by a slightly smaller number of players, but having 2.625 bitcoins each will allow them to achieve ergodicity in case, for example, one or all five of the lost million bitcoins are miraculously found.

Perhaps the number "8 million" confused you, but I used this figure to illustrate that we are still at a very early stage of development in this market. Among all these inflated marketing fictional numbers of 120+ million cryptocurrency exchange users, there are NO only 8 million individuals, each of whom holds 2.625 Bitcoin equivalent to the value of an economy-level sedan.

YOU are the one shouting about locking up and holding and not selling 21m coins
YOUR math 2.625*8m=21m

there is only 19.44m coins available so far, so YOU are the one calculating a zero trade market as YOUR scenario

The painting "Savior of the World" (Salvador Mundi) is sold once every few centuries, but that doesn't mean it has no price and  doesn't mean it has no demand.

Your theory doesn't even hold up to elementary school level. Well, if your theory is correct, then what are today's oil prices? And what is the price of one carat diamonds? Where that spot exchange with barrels and diamonds in order books? 

People will band together to buy Bitcoin and that was a long time ago when Bitcoin was created by Satoshi. But know, someone or they will not be able to hold it in the long term because they will take profits when the price increase occurs. I think if you want everyone to buy BTC and refrain from selling it then there will be no economic laws in this matter because every day there are those who sell and there are those who buy, so this is the law of the market.

Even some people buy to invest in the long term and some of them buy to trade on the same day so there is always a circulation that occurs at any time. Now the supply of Bitcoin will decrease because many of them may lose their keys and cannot open them again and also as Bitcoin owners who may have left the world so the BTC supply will continue to decrease friends and at the same time the interest of buyers will increase which will make the price of Bitcoin go up on its own without having to make the effort as you have described.

ill let you in on a bigger secret
the active price is not determined by the supply.. its determined by the order thats triggered/processed/taken at that very moment which sets the price
no sell=no price=no market

it does not matter if an order being processed for 21m coins in an order.. nor 2.625coins or 0.0001 coins.
a market order being processed for 0.0001 for $3 still causes the market price to show as $30k/btc.. because math

takae a look at the market orders.. people are not trading 21m per order, nor 2.625. majority of orders triggering price changes are decimal amounts

if however there is no orders being processed there is no price, there is no market.

and you keep saying you never suggested a no market scenario.. even though your math of 2.625*8m=21m
even when there is only 19.44m right now meaning all bitcoin are meant to be held in your own scenario. including future bitcoin promises

if you however said something rational like 2.42btc*8m =19.36m leaving 80k coins open to trade. then you might have kicked off your topic more rationally

also if you do actually look at the actual order depths of the market orderbooks of all exchanges the totals dont even exceed 5m coins

and if you are trying to include derivative crap in your calculation, then thats a fail on you for not understanding the differences

With zero supply, the demand can indeed be zero, but it can also be infinitely large.

Well, very simple example, imagine casino chips. All the chips belong to the casino, but that doesn't mean the chips are worthless, right?

Or another example. Imagine traders dealing with stock options of $GOOGL. ~99.99% of $GOOGL shares are distributed between ~5000 large holders, but that doesn't prevent options traders from buying puts on 1% or 10% of total supply . Right?

Picture a scenario in which all Bitcoin holders decide to transfer their holdings to cold wallets, effectively removing all available Bitcoin from the market. What would be the implications of such a situation? How would others be able to acquire Bitcoin, and how would trading persist? The outcome might result in a stagnant price, with trading activity grinding to a halt. This could resemble the situation of a "shitcoin," where the buy and sell prices remain fixed, causing no movement on the price chart. It's essential not to assume everything will unfold as per our individual opinions, as numerous unknown factors can influence the outcome.

Let's consider another asset. Have you ever wondered how the price of diamonds and gemstones is determined? In the case of diamonds and gemstones, there isn't even a futures market.

If all holders of BTC do not sell then it is simple to think that the market is dead.  There is nothing to buy after all.  The market price may probably increase if the item is being hoarded making an artificial lack of supply but if there is nothing to buy in the market then it won't be long before the market becomes dead.

We must also understand that the market is governed by the law of supply and demand.  Without a supply,  there is no market at all.

So, are you trying to say that gold has value simply because it can be mined?

For example, lead is also a relatively rare metal, and its abundance in the Earth's crust is comparable to that of gold. So why is lead not stored in Fort Knox?

That stuff lying  in Fort Knox is not one and only gold on Earth.

Ppl have been harnessing the unique properties of this  material for centuries in various aspects of their life, that is why gold  holds such value for them.

 As we know gold is produced by the bursts of supernovas.

If it had remained locked in the cores  of those stars forever it would not have any value for people.

I never suggested limiting the free supply of bitcoin on exchanges to 0. The free supply on all exchanges could be for example 1 Bitcoin, and that would be sufficient to determine the price at $10+ million per Bitcoin. But even if the free supply of Bitcoin is restricted to 0, the price of Bitcoin can still be established in the derivatives market. That's essentially all I wanted to convey about pricing.

I'll let you in on a secret: everything you see on the exchange, including the charts and order books, is just a some kind of illusion. If you don't believe me, just conduct a simple experiment. Calculate the total supply of Bitcoin available for sale on all order books (sum asks) of every CEX and DEX including derivatives. I'm afraid you might discover that the sum of the entire "supply" (sum asks) could exceed 22 million bitcoins.

i never even made the assertions you replied with .. read my quote i never even used the words buzzword of silly highscool economics of "supply & demand" however you did multiple times in this topic

it seems your taking high school failed economics and trying to postulate from that standpoint without understanding the multiple levels of economics and how each level impacts the next.

its funny how you then say its about buying X less .. yet your whole topic is about a dumb scenario of ther being no buys at all.. thus making your rebuttals moot.
so i dig into your moot rebuttals and show you why they are moot becasue in a zero transactional market with no trade at all, there is no market
and with no spot market, that then affects the secondary markets of derivatives and darkpools which also crash to zero

and by the way, in 2008 alot of houses were foreclosed on and auctioned off cheaply in auctions as oppose to normal real estate listings thus causing a price drop in housing due to alot more housing being flash sold quickly when the derivatives banks wanted to exit their secondary market on mortgages..
it didnt matter about supply or demand. it was jsut price manipulation by forcing the comps down, it did not require all or high percentage of houses to be sold to crash it. it just required  select few being auctioned dirt cheap

you will learn this about bitcoin
bitcoin exchanges do not trade all current 19m coins each day to set prices.. there is a subset in exchanges of under 500k coins of which 90% are not even on market orders being processed. so call it only 50k coins traded at any given time frame. most of which are the same coins wash/arbitraged.
so forget your highschool "supply/demand" and realise there is more going on then that

the bitcoin value(number below market) is set by most efficient mining costs. this sets a bottom barrier of the lowest low for a period which people then speculate above that not due to supply but willingness/ability to buy.

there are currently americans willing to pay upto $40k if bitcoin price speculated that. there are japanese/hawaiian willing to pay upto $140k if bitcoin speculated that high. but each country has different value/premium limits before they give up
with this if there was no market for miners to sell coin to cover electric to continue mining. miners would give up mining. leaving the hashrate to crash, which would then make the cost to mine real cheap for anyone that decides to keep going due to lack of competition. this then lowers the bottom support meaning when markets open again those that did accumulate will want to exit quick and sell quick pushing the price down.

a forced ban of a market where no one sells does not cause a jump in market price. it in most scenarios causes the opposite becasue once the markets open again, majority are begging to sell at any price even at a loss, just to get out
it becomes a game of dominos, when a market opens and someone sells at a loss to exit, others see the price crash and they too panic and sell too.. and with miners having less competition thus a lower cost for those remaining. they too can sell cheap

learn beyond highschool economics

Following your logic, all that gold in Fort Knox is just lying there and not serving any purpose for people. So, what do you propose? Should we distribute it to the poor?

Think about that.

Bitcoin must serve for   people goodness  rather than visa versa.

If ppl hold BTC forever and never give it the works then there won't be any notable distinction between cryptocurrency  and, say, ordinary numbers generated by sophisticated computations, albeit by  decentralized way.  

Think about that.

It seems to me that you have little experience in the market. Let's take the year 2020, when oil prices fell by ~90% (WTI ~$2, Brent ~$5). If your claim is correct that the price is determined by the balance of supply and demand, does it mean that humanity reduced its oil consumption by 90% in 2020? Roughly speaking, by 10 times? Of course not, the actual reduction in consumption may have been around 10-20%, but not 90%, indicating that the price of oil was determined by the derivatives market. Similarly, your second example about the 2008 crisis is also entirely flawed. Do you believe that in 2008, people started buying 3 times less real estate or constructing 3 times fewer properties? Even in the case of real estate, the price bubble was inflated in the derivatives market, not in the real market.

The ~90% drop in oil prices in 2020 and the decline in real estate prices in 2008 were caused not by changes in the supply and demand ratio but by speculations in the derivatives market with large leveraged positions involving notional value to trillions of U.S. dollars.

because if there is a oil blockade banning the sells of all oil(yet supply continues to pile up). then even the futures market will see this and be on a downside not an upside. (those with active contract will be trying to sell them at a loss becasue the contracts wont fulfil so they will want any dumb chump to buy their empty bag of contracts off them)

and when the blockade finally gets removed for actual oil. there will be alot of people ready to sell and everyone clamouring over each other to sell before the next person, thus causing a dump

same goes for real estate. those holding mortgage derivatives know that they are holding a losing contract. and so while tenants are foreclosed on because they stopped paying mortgages, the investors will want their money out but unable to sell the house so they just foreclose on tenants and hoard unsellable real estate, leaving homes in disrepair.
then when real estate market opens again everyone will be clamouring to auction off dilapidated/unkept houses for $1 just to get rid of their contract but knowing the tenant still owes them full amount of debt tenant didnt pay.. because well thats what happened in 2008 in one way or another

when there is a large stockpile of assets that cant sell.. the prices dont go up.. they go down

Bitcoin opponents are already defeated. We no longer have any challanger. We are now in the stage of completing the Bitcoin Project we hope and pray will survive an upcoming apocalyptic event.
We are still building and trying to convince more people to join the ship. Once we are done, the doors will be shot, a fierce king from the other side will be let loose and we will sail away.

Well, oil might be too complicated of an example for you. Let's consider another asset. Have you ever wondered how the price of diamonds and gemstones is determined? In the case of diamonds and gemstones, there isn't even a futures market.