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Topic: [Bitcoin Future Price Formula] Published by italian Bitcointalk member! - page 2. (Read 6273 times)

member
Activity: 111
Merit: 10
I don't know Italian, but I do know maths, and a bit about fitting curves to data in particular. As far as I can see the author has simply assumed a power-law relationship between I(number of addresses) and P(price). In other words P=k*I^n, where k and n are constants to be found by data mining. He has done this in the standard way, by finding the best-fit line you get on a log-log plot. He gets n~=2.26 and k~=e^-26 (incidentally you may as well just give k as a very small number, there's no benefit in putting it in terms of e).

It's interesting but I don't know if it has much predictive power. But kudos for putting some maths into this stuff, we don't see enough of that in price speculation threads.

please take a look at process and assumption I used for the equation

here the google translator link of the thread:



Update: added italian translation link at the end of the post.
legendary
Activity: 3206
Merit: 2735
I don't know Italian, but I do know maths, and a bit about fitting curves to data in particular. As far as I can see the author has simply assumed a power-law relationship between I(number of addresses) and P(price). In other words P=k*I^n, where k and n are constants to be found by data mining. He has done this in the standard way, by finding the best-fit line you get on a log-log plot. He gets n~=2.26 and k~=e^-26 (incidentally you may as well just give k as a very small number, there's no benefit in putting it in terms of e).

It's interesting but I don't know if it has much predictive power. But kudos for putting some maths into this stuff, we don't see enough of that in price speculation threads.

please take a look at process and assumption I used for the equation

here the google translator link of the thread:

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fixquick-proxy.com%2Fdo%2Fspg%2Fproxy%3Fep%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%26epile%3D4q6n41784q7n45794q7n41794q5638324q5335725n586o3q%26edata%3Dfc5a5c9a5d97a18f40c5a21299c725f1%26ek%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%26ekdata%3D994c7484e19747a35918a9bf2b6534e2



hero member
Activity: 492
Merit: 503
I don't know Italian, but I do know maths, and a bit about fitting curves to data in particular. As far as I can see the author has simply assumed a power-law relationship between I(number of addresses) and P(price). In other words P=k*I^n, where k and n are constants to be found by data mining. He has done this in the standard way, by finding the best-fit line you get on a log-log plot. He gets n~=2.26 and k~=e^-26 (incidentally you may as well just give k as a very small number, there's no benefit in putting it in terms of e).

It's interesting but I don't know if it has much predictive power. But kudos for putting some maths into this stuff, we don't see enough of that in price speculation threads.
legendary
Activity: 3206
Merit: 2735
are the total number of addresses meant to be addresses with a balance, or just addresses (including empty addresses)

hi, I am the italian in subject:)

total addresses is non empty plus zero addresses (zero balance addresse are about 90% of total addresses).

Initially I think that the Active (not zero) addresses was the best, but
statistic analysis tell that the best fit is Total address (including zero)

This graph show how my equation (blue line) fit bitcoin price:




here the translation of original thread:

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fixquick-proxy.com%2Fdo%2Fspg%2Fproxy%3Fep%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%26epile%3D4q6n41784q7n45794q7n41794q5638324q5335725n586o3q%26edata%3Dfc5a5c9a5d97a18f40c5a21299c725f1%26ek%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%26ekdata%3D994c7484e19747a35918a9bf2b6534e2

PS: sorry for bad english

newbie
Activity: 48
Merit: 0
are the total number of addresses meant to be addresses with a balance, or just addresses (including empty addresses)
member
Activity: 111
Merit: 10
An italian Bitcointalk forum member spent a whole month going over Bitcoin statistics and analyzing the blockchain and eventually came up (yesterday) with an equation for future Bitcoin price prediction. Italian Bitcointalk folks told him to publish all his studies on the international forum because it has 1000x more Bitcoin enthusiasts (BTC still not really famous in Italy) but the author answered that he's "too lazy  Cheesy " and prefers to publish his studies in italian only.

The article is very long but contains a lot of interesting information (also graphs and numbers), maybe it will be valuable to translate all of it. But before doing so (or before somebody wants to do it), maybe it's better to see what math skilled BTC fans think about this (I'm just a fan...no math genius therefore not able to judge).

So first, the Formula he came up with:

P=(I^2.26)/(e^32)

Variables:

I = Total number of addresses
P = Price in US$
e = Euler's number (2.71828)

Have a look at the calculations he made at the end of the post. Maybe Google translator is also enough to give you an idea on how he came up with that equation.

Original forum thread (Italian): https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/tabelle-annuali-il-prezzo-dei-bitcoin-353156


[Italian Translation - Google Translator]
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