Topic: Bitcoin Future Transaction Prices (Read 554 times)

We can manage to find an actual solution but removing the block size cap (that is what dynamic block is) is not a solution, it is a disaster that would destroy bitcoin because it has no spam prevention mechanism in it and without a cap (that would create a fee market and make spam attacks financially infeasible) they would be able to attack bitcoin very easily and with very low cost.
And that's just one of the problems.

Otherwise, if they are looking for blockchains with faster transaction confirmation time, cheaper transaction fee, they can find it with altcoin blockchains but by such choices, they sacrifice security.

We can manage to find an actual solution but removing the block size cap (that is what dynamic block is) is not a solution, it is a disaster that would destroy bitcoin because it has no spam prevention mechanism in it and without a cap (that would create a fee market and make spam attacks financially infeasible) they would be able to attack bitcoin very easily and with very low cost.
And that's just one of the problems.

Let's stop pretending there is no solution, the solution has been there for years but "Bitcoin" refuses to update.

It's called dynamic block size (aka adaptive/variable block size) that changes according to network transaction traffic.

I'm not sure that Bitcoin is going to be truly "globally accepted". And by "globally accepted" I mean Bitcoin becoming a truly mainstream global currency. This most likely would never happen. Bitcoin would be more like "digital gold", a financial asset that is mostly used by the big institutional investors to add in their portfolios. The problem is that those big institutional investors could afford to pay ridiculous transactions fees. This could scare away the small BTC investors. I don't know about any potential solutions of this problem, since I'm not a Bitcoin Core developer.

The problem is that those big institutional investors could afford to pay ridiculous transactions fees. This could scare away the small BTC investors. I don't know about any potential solutions of this problem, since I'm not a Bitcoin Core developer.

I am working to get my bitcoin off of exchanges and into cold storage but I had a question regarding transaction prices. As more adopt Bitcoin, transaction prices are going to increase as there is more demand for blockspace. Is there any documentation or research into what transaction fees may look like in a world where Bitcoin is more widely accepted? I am worried that from an individual level the blockspace may become so valuable that moving Bitcoin on and off a personal cold wallet may be unfeasibly costly for the average user.

My understanding is at the current moment while it is still becoming adopted, the value of the Bitcoin held should scale with the transaction costs. I am more wondering about long term viability of personal cold wallets, and how the different layer 2+ scaling projects (lightning, Fedimint, etc.) as well as custodial services may play into the long-run transaction costs. Anyone with knowledge or resources they could point me to would be greatly appreciated!

None. I believe during the very early days of Bitcoin, no one wanted to talk that this might be a problem.
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If the price of a good or a service is too high, then naturally the demand for that good or service will go down.

I also thought so, in the future the transaction fee of Bitcoin is going to be more expensive than the transaction fee of this year. It is difficult for me to know how high the fee can go but I believe that as the price of Bitcoin continues to grow higher after every 4 year, that's also how the fee will be increasing, the reason why I think so is because of how the transaction fee was extremely low when 1 bitcoin was just $8.

I am working to get my bitcoin off of exchanges and into cold storage but I had a question regarding transaction prices. As more adopt Bitcoin, transaction prices are going to increase as there is more demand for blockspace. Is there any documentation or research into what transaction fees may look like in a world where Bitcoin is more widely accepted? I am worried that from an individual level the blockspace may become so valuable that moving Bitcoin on and off a personal cold wallet may be unfeasibly costly for the average user.

I don't think you should worry about this much. More than a decade has passed since Bitcoin's inception; adoption has accelerated a lot, the price has skyrocketed, even global financial giants have joined the game, but we could still enjoy as low as 4 Sats/vB every once in a while.

If more adoption would mean unaffordable transactions, there will always be responding technologies that address it. A rising problem would always be followed with a solution.

But I believe transaction fees would remain as volatile as Bitcoin's price. It might be like this for the next few decades. From 4 Sats/vB, it could suddenly jump to 100 or even 1,000 but from there it could also fall to 8 the next minute.

There are overhyped projects in the space but we should be extremely careful not to fall in the hands of scammers because they're definitely not going to pity us, rather they will hacked into our port folio without our conscience.

As far as I know there’s no research or data that has been analyzed to come up with an accurate estimation of transaction prices. With bitcoin’s price being volatile, the same goes for transaction prices. We can’t determine just how huge can the mass acceptance be and how much it can impact transaction fees. I am hoping that by then it could have been resolved by a much more efficient technology.

As more adopt Bitcoin, transaction prices are going to increase as there is more demand for blockspace. Is there any documentation or research into what transaction fees may look like in a world where Bitcoin is more widely accepted?

I am worried that from an individual level the blockspace may become so valuable that moving Bitcoin on and off a personal cold wallet may be unfeasibly costly for the average user.

This is my concern about a cold wallet. What is the end goal of Bitcoin? Global reserve currency (digital gold), or peer to peer cash? I am not sure both can be attainable in its current design ( am also a noob and just trying to understand more). If it is a cash system like it has existed in the early days, cold wallets for personal use makes sense. But if Bitcoin continues to grow it and is adopted by more, it may become a global reserve currency due to its finite supply. Under this global reserve currency assumption, bitcoin would be backing every bank, who would be throwing around huge transactions and willing to pay large transaction fees. This would crowd out individuals who want to use cold wallets other than those who hold a large sum of bitcoin, as they would have to pay bank level fees to move around Bitcoin which for most would not be economically feasible. In this scenario, the blockchain would become the source of truth of transactions, lightning would be used by banks for settlements, and you would need a secondary currency backed by bitcoin (US dollar, mint, other crypto, third layer solution, etc.) and make personal cold storage options (for Bitcoin specifically) unfeasible for most.

 Am I missing a key component of this train of thought? In this scenario, custodians become almost necessary due to the amount of transactions needed if everyone used their own personal cold wallet. Is this the natural progression of Bitcoin, or are there developmental efforts to make cold wallets feasible for all in the future as the adoption of Bitcoin continues?

Bitcoin transactions are perhaps getting higher with each spike. It can be seen by using monitoring websites with long-term charts of average transaction fees. However, the spikes aren't that common, and the fees remain acceptable once the spike is over. So I think that in case of urgent selling, a fee can become a larger and larger issue, but if it's nothing urgent, then I expect the fees to regularly be within reasonable limits (below $10) even as adoption gradually increases. Unless there are more overhyped projects or some country suddenly deciding to frequently use on-chain transactions, it shouldn't be an issue.