Hey guys , i have been posting for a while now in altcoin forums but this is my first post in Bitcoin forum.
I am trying to understand the relation between the CME futures expiration and the price of Bitcoin in the market , is there any way to track the amount of futures going in long or short ?
CME futures don't affect the price of bitcoin, bitcoin prices affect the CME markets. It's the inverse of how futures markets are supposed to work. In traditional futures markets, you are trading actual contracts that link directly to the price of the commodity. So if you buy a contract for 100 barrels of oil at $100 each that expires on December 1, on December first you are obligated to take delivery of the 100 barrels of oil. Ultimately what happens as a trader is you sell that contract to someone who actually wants to take the delivery of the oil because they're going to refine it. If the price of oil is below $100 on that date, you're going to be selling that contract at a loss. If it's above $100, you'll be selling that contract at a gain. But in either case, the contract is literally for 100 barrels of oil, and it is settled in the commodity itself (in this case oil), so the price of the futures market directly impacts the price of oil because oil supply is affected through buying selling of the futures contracts.
In bitcoin futures, the future is not linked to bitcoin. You never settle in bitcoin, you always settle in cash. So if you buy a contract for $6000 and the price closes at $7000 on the settlement date, you just get paid the $7000 and make $1000 profit and no bitcoin moves anywhere. If it settles at $5000, the you get the $5000 back but you're down $1000 because you paid $6000 for the contract. But because no bitcoin moves, the price the future contract settles at has zero impact on the price of bitcoin.