Topic: Bitcoin Futures - December 10. Will it Rise or Fall? - page 2. (Read 2629 times)

The futures will trade FIVE days per week. Whose genius idea was that? Get ready for wild price swings on the weekends!

Today is now december 8, and bitcoin price still rising. I bet until next year, the bitcoin price will still rise because of its popularity. No doubt that the bitcoin will cotinue to rise.

Futures trades are usually bots and this will make huge sell orders on the market.
Bots will not always buy without any indicator signals. So Yes i am waiting a huge correction on 10 december

I read many speculations about that here in forum mostly they say that bitcoin was continued moving up by month of December and I think that was true because bitcoin now rapidly going high not like few months ago. But it is still prediction of bitcoin that no one knows, because of being volatile of bitcoin the rice is not stable.

it's very difficult to speculating about this. when bitcoin futures starting in few days this will start a new bitcoins condition.
since bitcoin keeps rising, people keep following the trend to buy bitcoin, I do not expect bitcoin to crash, but also anxious that this trend will be parabolic.

I'm not so sure about that. Firstly, you have to consider time frames. Novogratz predicted last month that Bitcoin would end the year around $10,000. So for all I know, he expects a significant correction from this latest leg of the rally.

Also, JP Morgan seems to be pivoting quickly. They said a few days ago that Bitcoin could join Gold as a reliable, long-term way to store wealth, suggesting that it would become a traditional asset class. Jamie Dimon may not like it, but I don't think he wants Chase left in the dust by other banks. Goldman Sachs announced today that they are planning to clear bitcoin futures for clients as new contracts go live in the coming days. Bank of America just won a patent for a cryptocurrency exchange system.

The banks are waking up, and it seems like they want a piece of the action more than anything else.....

The US Futures Trading Association (FIA) has prepared an appeal to the Securities and Exchange Commission to postpone the launch of bitcoin futures trading.
The draft version of the document was at the disposal of the Financial Times. According to the publication, it should be sent today, December 7.
According to the FIA, the launch of bitcoin futures trading will not be accompanied by proper transparency   

Because if they want to short the market they can artificially inflate the price by buying shitloads of it and driving the price up.  Once the price is high they can short it, dump what they bought and then do it all over again.  There's some graphic floating around that says this.  Is it true? Who knows.  Does it seem like it could happen? Perhaps.

Why would they need to buy real bitcoin, when contracts will be settled in fiat?

Nothing will happen on December 10th. The price will continue to rise to the fork. And maybe before the New Year. I hope that there will not be a sharp drop in prices.

There will be hedge funds betting for and against bitcoin.

Certainly the one from Novogratz will bet on a rising. And the ones lead by GS and JPMorgan will bet on a fall.

But we dont know for sure how this really works in its internals. Basically they use leverage in CME for their bettings, but when buying real bitcoin, they will buy in exchanges like Bitstamp and hence they can only do what a whale would do.

In gold, they keep the price down, because gold is held in custody by the State and the banks. They have a monopoly on it. Now for bitcoin, 90% of it is concentrated in the hands of the whales, which are 1% of users. So those funds will keep buying lots of bitcoins to increase the price first, so that they can tempt the whales to dump their stashes, and only then they will short what they have bought.

I was fearing a short right off the bat, because we never know if these funds were hoarding bitcoin, secretly and for a long time, turning them into whales themselves. But most probably is that they werent doing that, as their criticism points to a regret of not buying (as most coinhaters do, they always act emotionally). So maybe the price will go up until it reaches around 30k and then one or two whales try to dump to buy a truck full of lambos. Only then we will have a crash, going back to 10k levels.

indeed so far no one knows what will happen to bitcoin in the future but surely we all hope if bitcoin will still exist to help economy of its users to become better in terms of finance and for that of course in need of support from various parties so that bitcoin always grow and develop as valuable digital currencies.

There will be endless delays with the SEC, etc. which drop the price.

That will remain to be seen after the first day of bitcoin futures as many predicts some more surge on the price of bitcoin. Some online news report that bitcoin futures will help stabilize the volatility of the bitcoin price, does it means that wild price swings will be a thing of the past? No one know what lies ahead for the bitcoin as it enter new chapter by means of bitcoin futures.

In December I thought it was up to $ 16k and fell down. I hope it returns to 9k $ .

This is not correct, a big influx of money is not going to stabilize bitcoin in fact it is the opposite, if a few tens of billions of dollars entered the market of crypto that does not meant the value of bitcoin will grow that much in fact since the supply is limited it is likely the market cap of bitcoin will go up a hundred billion in market cap.

I agree with you.


Why are you all talking about that a new crash is coming? I dont see any crash coming, and if you are talking because you are comparing this to the previous crash of 2013, then you are out of mind.

That situation is not going to happen again, and the CME is not going to be able to manipulate the price because they are not going to put billions in there.

The only ones who are able to manipulate the price are the miners and the real big whales (who are holding more than one million of coins or so)

Yea, I agree , I do not see the CME futures trading a good thing. ( At least in its current form )

My only experience of futures are with precious metals.
It is generally considered to be a bad thing that people can trade paper Gold and Silver, as they can sell without buying.

At the moment people have to loan out Bitcoin to sell it, in the future that won't be the case. I expect a short term influx of money, but long term it probably won't be great for Bitcoin.

It is really hard to tell.

On the one hand the CME futures are just a bet on direction with no delivery mechanism. So essentially disconnected from the freely traded price of Bitcoin.

On the other hand if I was someone like Jamie Dinasaur, here is what I would try and do:
1) Announce Bitcoin was a scam in preparation of buying up as much as I could.
2) Become involved in the CME futures when launched. Build up a large outrageous short position (with unlimited fiat available).
3) Simultaneously sell large numbers of Bitcoin on exchanges like Bitstamp and Bitfinex( that were accumulated from 5k up), while slamming on more shorts in the CME.
4) Make most of your money causing a panic via the CME futures and simultaneous sells of BTC.
5) Buy back cheap bitcoins on exchanges and cover shorts on the CME.
6) Have coordinated media denouncing Bitcoin. etc..
Wash rinse and repeat.

I hope they are not able to do this! But this may be a trick they will try. With the CME totally disconnected from the real price if they want to manipulate Bitcoin they will also need to use "some" real coins to paint the tape.