I am unable to predict when the casino will make money and when it is not. However, i am still using data and making some pattern recognition out of it. I invested in both moneypot and betking and i have keep track very closely for both of them even more than what you have seen here. You only see the result of betking but if you really keep track of these 3 months week by week, you will understand more. Do you know that even though betking you see is overall having good profit, there are 1 month in these 3 month it is losing money? This is what Variance is but like what most of us say, it will still tend towards the house edge. This happen to be the same person who have been taking profit from the betking for days until he lose a lot eventually and this explain why there is a good boost in the 2nd month. Similarly, when the thread starter start his first investment, betking make a huge profit(about 1000btc) within one week, and hua_hui already start telling people that is not an accurate projection. This is because it is exactly betking has been losing the pervious 1.5 months in almost every single day to these whales who is using martingale that is taking profit but in the long run, the house edge will creep in and this cause these exact same whale to lose heavily.
As i have keep track of my betking investment week by week for almost 6 months, i would have to say that i am quite happy that i did the research. And the reason why i also dont like to share is because I am sure people will disagree and argue no matter what, so I just keep the information to myself and save the trouble to talk to this. This is the big difference of people doing proper research and people who dont.
Martingale is completely different offcourse, as long as the player keeps betting he will lose in the short or long run
I was invested in satoshidice when it was making good profit and moneypot, i know and saw what variance is.
only thing i am saying is you can't expect that a casino will start winning just because it suddenly lost or the otherway around (again, excluding martingale) it just doens't work like that. and again it wont tend to the house edge because otherwise you would be able to calculate, there are way to many variables and the period of time to calculate an expected profit is way to short, just an example, betking is online for 3years and 8 month's and they got an 181% expected profit which is almost double then the simple house edge expected profit calculation.