My strategy - range trading around 650 for now, 450-900.
This is paying damn well right about now
Topic: Bitcoin getting too hot too trade? (Read 2531 times)
This is paying damn well right about now
thing is - you believe in fiat more than you believe in bitcoin, still. that's why you are uneasy being in BTC when the price is "high". the same way as we are nervous while in fiat.
this will pass. once your 3 btc bring you £30k for doing nothing but "not selling", you will believe, too.
this will pass. once your 3 btc bring you £30k for doing nothing but "not selling", you will believe, too.
Don't have 3 BTC.....sold em last night. But I aint worried. As soon as Bitcoin shows any signs of heading back up North, I will be heavily in.
What defines money or currency, is determined by whether a metal or unit of account has mass confidence or not. Right now, Bitcoin just does not have this. Once upon a time however, paper currencies not backed by precious metals would have had great difficulty in getting people to believe in them and most times that this was tried throughout relatively modern history, the currency failed. Thanks to WW2 and the Bretton Woods agreement however, and of course Nixons 'temporary' suspension of it, the world has now got used to having confidence in currencies backed by nothing but government promises, something that would have been unthinkable just 50-60 years ago....so things can, do, and will change.
But are we there yet with crypto-currencies?
God no!
Could I conceivably in the very near future be the proud owner of 1 Million Btc, yet still be on the breadline? Oh YES!
Could I have the equivalent of 1 Million USD in fiat, stuffed under my mattress and still be on the breadline? Not a chance!
thing is - you believe in fiat more than you believe in bitcoin, still. that's why you are uneasy being in BTC when the price is "high". the same way as we are nervous while in fiat.
this will pass. once your 3 btc bring you £30k for doing nothing but "not selling", you will believe, too.
this will pass. once your 3 btc bring you £30k for doing nothing but "not selling", you will believe, too.
In which case I would have plenty time to get a bit more of a feel for what way the wind is going to blow next and so there is no need to run outside and start playing now in what may well simply be the eye of the storm......
I agree, there *might be* instability ahead with quick forays into sub-500 territory. My strategy - range trading around 650 for now, 450-900. But of course, cold storage stays cold, that's the only correct way to do it. Bitcoin can shit all over the TA at any moment, turn around and run - you just can't sleep well when you have no bitcoins
Until the day comes when I can pay my rent in BTC and milk is priced in μBTC, I can sleep just fine. I am up around £6K so far in around 4 weeks. I would have to spend 4 weeks sitting on a seismic vessel in middle of some fkn sea to earn that....and to put things into better perspective, some people on min wage here in UK would have to work full time for about 6 months.
Definite stability/pennant period here, thus far projected to come to a head somewhere in $700 - $730 range, at which point it will either break up or down. Either way, I won't be onboard the Bitcoin train when it happens. Either my buy targets will be met or Bitcoin has to do much much more to convince me it has turned the corner. If this means I miss out on around 20% of upside (which is what it would take), then so be it. I hate losing more than I love winning.
In which case I would have plenty time to get a bit more of a feel for what way the wind is going to blow next and so there is no need to run outside and start playing now in what may well simply be the eye of the storm......
I agree, there *might be* instability ahead with quick forays into sub-500 territory. My strategy - range trading around 650 for now, 450-900. But of course, cold storage stays cold, that's the only correct way to do it. Bitcoin can shit all over the TA at any moment, turn around and run - you just can't sleep well when you have no bitcoins
for not very much reward.
if you buy now at 650, you have +100% upside potential (happened, will happen again in the not too distant future) and -100% downside potential (never happened, alot less probable), so it's a good spot to start buying, for me at least. For both previous ATHs (30 and 260) 50% level was the strongest support and place of consolidation for a long time, so I guess we'll be spending some time around 650.
In which case I would have plenty time to get a bit more of a feel for what way the wind is going to blow next and so there is no need to run outside and start playing now in what may well simply be the eye of the storm......also, 30 over time turned into 2, and 260, crashed to 60, stabilised at 150, before dragging out the weeks and finding 60 once again.
Using past boom/bust market cycles as templates, is far from encouraging to the investor in the present time.
In the immediate short term, price is $695, and short term stochastics are all suggesting down turn. Looks like pennant formation for the time being, and then who knows what in a few days time.....if one were to adhere strictly to what charts are saying, especially the China chart, then yet more downside can be expected.
for not very much reward.
if you buy now at 650, you have +100% upside potential (happened, will happen again in the not too distant future) and -100% downside potential (never happened, alot less probable), so it's a good spot to start buying, for me at least. For both previous ATHs (30 and 260) 50% level was the strongest support and place of consolidation for a long time, so I guess we'll be spending some time around 650.
No one seems to be really panicking yet, so I think this bear market has a while left to go. We'll hover around the $600's for a week or so, then dip into the $500's and those buys will get filled. The scare will happen around the lower $500's when the downtrend doesn't seem to be stopping, and those orders around $500 will get pulled out and placed lower.
I agree.
I proudly profess that I flip flop, do 180° turns, and change my mind left right and centre when it comes to Bitcoin. I don't give a sh1t about maintaining integrity of opinion when it comes to Bitcoin, I only care about making money, or at least not losing money.
I sense the panic is over for now, and despite my concerns that Bitcoin was getting too hot trade I am now toying with the idea of slowly entering the market......but the charts are still looking very ugly.....
...therefore my bets are also on a brief reprieve, for now. Still investment opportunities occurring but with huge risk of being trapped for not very much reward.
I would rather keep my money.....I think...
No one seems to be really panicking yet, so I think this bear market has a while left to go. We'll hover around the $600's for a week or so, then dip into the $500's and those buys will get filled. The scare will happen around the lower $500's when the downtrend doesn't seem to be stopping, and those orders around $500 will get pulled out and placed lower.
I was also thinking to maybe play the dead cat bounce at the 400ish level but not anymore, too risky. I prefer to wait (months if necessary) to see where it all ends up.
Yeah....all seems a little bit risky just now for the likely rewards even for 80% perfect market timing, which is about as good as anyone can realistically expect to get.
If it were any other asset, the charts right now would obviously mean months, if not years of stagnating/trending and therefore there would be absolutely no rush to attempt to jump in at the precise bottom as plenty good buying opportunities will present themselves as time rolls on......
.....but this is Bitcoin. Who really knows what is around the corner.
Yes, bitcoin is too hot to trade right now and too expensive to buy (one, but you can go with 0.1 as well) and too volatile to be called an investment.
Too speculated to be reliable and with uncertain creators. This puzzles me most and makes me seriously consider SELLING ALL. What if bitcoin is a damn socioeconomic experiment made by some occult group with the main agenda of creating the mark of the beast (666 and stuff).
Makes me think I was played. Was fleeing out of govt. control and microchips and now...
Too speculated to be reliable and with uncertain creators. This puzzles me most and makes me seriously consider SELLING ALL. What if bitcoin is a damn socioeconomic experiment made by some occult group with the main agenda of creating the mark of the beast (666 and stuff).
Makes me think I was played. Was fleeing out of govt. control and microchips and now...
That's just a LITTLE bit paranoid, don't you think Wobber?
lol, everyone knows theres heaps of buyers waiting at $500-$600 and thats exactly why it wont drop that low. 
There is heaps of buyers waiting at that price, but not too many all that interested at prices above here. In a clear bear market with terrible news around, nobody is going to be very interested in investing in Bitcoin at high enough prices to reverse the trend. Therefore, the market should trend towards this important support at which point the purchasing power shall indeed push the price right back up, at least a good bit. but will it reverse the trend? I don't think so! I am betting on a temporary bounce.
To all the rest of you, sure, Bitcoin recovered back up to the mid $750's, but we are now back in mid $600's with the charts still looking bearish as hell.......and some of you guys are suggesting that the mid $500s will not be met!?
My issue is not whether this price support will be hit, but whether the potential gains be worth the risk. I have no intention of holding $550 Bitcoin when/if the price is stagnating along in $300 range, which is well possible.
Yes, bitcoin is too hot to trade right now and too expensive to buy (one, but you can go with 0.1 as well) and too volatile to be called an investment.
Too speculated to be reliable and with uncertain creators. This puzzles me most and makes me seriously consider SELLING ALL. What if bitcoin is a damn socioeconomic experiment made by some occult group with the main agenda of creating the mark of the beast (666 and stuff).
Makes me think I was played. Was fleeing out of govt. control and microchips and now...
Too speculated to be reliable and with uncertain creators. This puzzles me most and makes me seriously consider SELLING ALL. What if bitcoin is a damn socioeconomic experiment made by some occult group with the main agenda of creating the mark of the beast (666 and stuff).
Makes me think I was played. Was fleeing out of govt. control and microchips and now...
if china has basically reduced btc to a novelty item, then the 50% volume we saw in china the past 2 months will be selling pressure starting now. if the chinese dump all their bitcoins, i dont believe there's enough fiat in westerner's hands to stop the fall.
i see this going way below 500.
You are assuming here that chinese are stupid kids who would like to halve their invested money two weeks after buying in. I disagree. You judge by small trolls here who never had more than a couple bitcoins to begin with. Serious investors don't just rush selling low first chance they got.
My buy in target is set to $550 and then again at $500.
Sure, there will be bounces all the way down and therefore there will be fast and high rewarding investment opportunities, but does the level of risk warrant it?
Sure, there will be bounces all the way down and therefore there will be fast and high rewarding investment opportunities, but does the level of risk warrant it?
lol, everyone knows theres heaps of buyers waiting at $500-$600 and thats exactly why it wont drop that low.
if china has basically reduced btc to a novelty item, then the 50% volume we saw in china the past 2 months will be selling pressure starting now. if the chinese dump all their bitcoins, i dont believe there's enough fiat in westerner's hands to stop the fall.
i see this going way below 500.
Too late it's probably going to 900 before it goes to 600s again. I myself missed out on getting in on (and holding) the lowest prices due to all the china FUD today but now I realize it is only third payment processors that are banned and not banks. 
you will want to make sure there is already good support at the target levels you anticipate or you could end up overpaying. if the price got down to at least $600, you would have got 6000 euro in instead of having 20,000 euro on 550 and getting nothing in.
Yep thats what everyone should do; only I don't try to guess how low it'll go and have my bids all the same fiat amount, not increasing (amount of BTC is increasing going down), so in your case I'd set orders at 650, 600, 550, 500, 450, at 4k each. If your main buy is at $550 that either means you don't want to buy or truly believe it will go that low - if you do, you should also cover some ground below that, in case it goes lower
best plan is to have your bid money spread out on about $100 higher than the bottom youre hoping for down to the actual bottom you hope will hit. say if you have $20,000 euro to invest:
bid at: $650 - 500 euro
bid at: $625 - 2000 euro
bid at: $600 - 3500 Euro
bid at: $575 - 5000 Euro
bid at: $550 - 9000 Euro
you will want to make sure there is already good support at the target levels you anticipate or you could end up overpaying. if the price got down to at least $600, you would have got 6000 euro in instead of having 20,000 euro on 550 and getting nothing in.
bid at: $650 - 500 euro
bid at: $625 - 2000 euro
bid at: $600 - 3500 Euro
bid at: $575 - 5000 Euro
bid at: $550 - 9000 Euro
you will want to make sure there is already good support at the target levels you anticipate or you could end up overpaying. if the price got down to at least $600, you would have got 6000 euro in instead of having 20,000 euro on 550 and getting nothing in.
HAha,
it goes like this:
Trader thinking, ok, ok, ok - I've got cash on the exchange, I'm gonna buy when it hits the bottom!
Did it hit the bottom yet? Now? What about now?
Oh shit, it turns, the bottom is hit. Shit, shit, shit. Gotta submit my order to buy!
And then you have hundreds of people doing the same, and the price goes from 678 to 775 in less than 3 hours.
And the ones losing out are the ones who miscalculated the bottom and though they would just increase their btc holdings.
No bottom yet, no bottom yet - so I'm selling. Shit! It turned around, it's up 50$ already, damn, ok buying in again, eating the loss!!
it goes like this:
Trader thinking, ok, ok, ok - I've got cash on the exchange, I'm gonna buy when it hits the bottom!
Did it hit the bottom yet? Now? What about now?
Oh shit, it turns, the bottom is hit. Shit, shit, shit. Gotta submit my order to buy!
And then you have hundreds of people doing the same, and the price goes from 678 to 775 in less than 3 hours.
And the ones losing out are the ones who miscalculated the bottom and though they would just increase their btc holdings.
No bottom yet, no bottom yet - so I'm selling. Shit! It turned around, it's up 50$ already, damn, ok buying in again, eating the loss!!
Too greedy. I'd be glad if it hit 650. 550, can only dream.
Protip: you don't worry when the price approaches your orders, you are happy instead, because that means your orders were set where they should be. Without the price plummeting right into your order, it will never get filled. But of course, move to 450, you'll learn faster that way.
Protip: you don't worry when the price approaches your orders, you are happy instead, because that means your orders were set where they should be. Without the price plummeting right into your order, it will never get filled. But of course, move to 450, you'll learn faster that way.
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