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Topic: Bitcoin Halving and price History Analysis on Chart (Read 391 times)

hero member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 507
Bitcoin halving usually create the hype which is enough to create the fomo. Plus, it will cut the block reward by half which will cut the supply. On the other hand, demand is expected to go up in coming years because of the increased awareness. These all factors combined gonna take the price up. One should look for the speculated price before the halving. Usually price goes up before the event happens which could be a good point to close your longs.
legendary
Activity: 2730
Merit: 1288
next halving bitcoin price can reach 135000 usd per btc ,  There is a dump now  in the market , but be confident that there is work in hiding like last year , as for low price can drop 25000 usd per btc in cases of crash like any past halving
Prices can stable above 35000 usd per btc easily

Everything can happen But I wonder where you got this price from. As OP showed us in previous two halving price was 1/3 and 1/2 of previous ATH. So that would mean now at halving price could be $7000 or $10000.  I would really love to see where you got $135k. Smiley
hero member
Activity: 2842
Merit: 772
All we need to make sure is to contact miners or at least get a word out of them on what they are planning to do before, during and after the halving, if we knew what they were planning then we can know for sure what will happen too.
Do you seriously believe that large miners will reply to any of people's questions? It's in their best interest to not disclose their plans because there are a lot of competing miners that could take advantage of that information.

All you have to do is look at the chart and see for yourself what the market did during the previous block halvings---chances are that the conditions will rhyme because of how repetitive the nature of this market has been throughout the years.
Miners are integral part of the ecosystem, but I would agree that they won't disclosed any of their future plans are it is also a competition out there, more so of big mining companies as compare to mid level or hobbyist miners around the world.

Well it could rhyme again because the market works in cycle and really could be repetitive but their might be new conditions, like new players and entities and institutions coming in and join the picture after the block halving.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1179
All we need to make sure is to contact miners or at least get a word out of them on what they are planning to do before, during and after the halving, if we knew what they were planning then we can know for sure what will happen too.
Do you seriously believe that large miners will reply to any of people's questions? It's in their best interest to not disclose their plans because there are a lot of competing miners that could take advantage of that information.

All you have to do is look at the chart and see for yourself what the market did during the previous block halvings---chances are that the conditions will rhyme because of how repetitive the nature of this market has been throughout the years.
hero member
Activity: 2464
Merit: 550
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
from the information you have provided it seems that every time there is a halving bitcoin, the price can be very expensive and many people should know because it will be increasingly difficult to get bitcoin and increasing demand will make the price of bitcoin very expensive.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 1165
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
The logic still stands even compared to back in the day, sure it will take a lot more money to increase the bitcoin price but at the same time as long as miners leave and they stop selling there wouldn't be too much need for money like it is now, it is still more money required than previous halving but it is less required compared to now. So, in the end the price goes up because miners stop selling which is a logic that worked all those times bitcoin had a halving and it will most likely happen in the near future when this halving happens as well.

All we need to make sure is to contact miners or at least get a word out of them on what they are planning to do before, during and after the halving, if we knew what they were planning then we can know for sure what will happen too.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1655
First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine  Smiley  

Cool theory but with only 2 data points, it's just as likely there is no sustainable pattern at all, or that the cycle would take between 500 and 1,000 days.

Extrapolation is fun but chances are the next cycle won't look like the previous ones. The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster. This supports an alternate theory that the cycles might accelerate as investors try to front-run each other before the next bubble.

Right, we also have 2 data points because obviously bitcoin is a fairly young market and we can only extrapolate based on that data. And that what makes crypto prediction very fun in the sideline.  Grin. But let's see how it goes after the block halving, the pattern could continue or not or the cycles will simply repeats itself, who knows.
legendary
Activity: 3164
Merit: 1127
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
In the past the price was very low and the market was smaller, when some people bought a lot of coins the price went up a lot, and people believed they would make 2X or 10X profits... today things are different, the price is very high compared to the past and people are not very confident that they will make 10X profits as in the past, in my opinion we will see moderate increases in the next halving, I am talking about increases of up to $25000
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster.

We'll have to see if this is an actual bull market because the lower the price sinks, the more likely it becomes that it has been a bull run within an overall bear market.

Sure that's possible. Unfortunately, Wave 2s tend to go quite deep so we have to wait and see. The 0.618 (in the $7,200s) is typical, but anything down to the low $5,000s would be pretty normal too for a bull market correction.

If we look back at historical price action, we don't generally break above the most important moving averages to dive under them some months later.

We did exactly that from June to August 2015 (broke above and back below the 200-day MA) as the market was transitioning from bear to bull. One might argue that's where we are in the market cycle right now too. Time will tell.
legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 1102
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
It is really happening the halving and the effect it can have with the price of bitcoin, we are  now in the third time halving is occurring and so far it is all positive but what if the halving now will be crucial for Bitcoin and end up negatively well we will never know, and I guess that is why we have an indicator for all-time low as well to simply see the support levels for bitcoin and that is good that we all care not only for all-time highs but all-time low as well,

This is a good analysis and an indicator that all criteria have met for us to proceed to another all-time high if the halving will be successful.
yes, that is indeed a very good analysis. If this halving goes well like before, there is a possibility that the price of bitcoin can exceed the price in 2017. Many people think that halving this time will make the price of bitcoin exceed its ATH, but so far there has not been such a sign.

based on the analysis, there is a high possibility that halving will indeed influence the price. so, I think that the price of bitcoin will most likely be above $ 12k by 2020, or even this year.
hero member
Activity: 3038
Merit: 634
Which price tag did you refer to? Better to see the ATH or the lowest as it's clear as the standard measurement for new adopters to assess bitcoins growth over time. If it's not the ATH nor the ATL then it's the "mean number" of bitcoin price every year? But it won't be accurate, even in the market charts only show ATH and All-time lows
He mentioned that both, the lows and highs were not good as it indicates fake prices. But we've hit those prices and now everyone starts to have an idea that those were the prices that bitcoin has reached before.

For the lowest, which seems still to be a high price considering that this asset/currency has been operating for just a decade. And for the highest, I always see every investor that's aiming for that price now and even higher because there's a possibility that it can happen because we've seen it happened before.
hero member
Activity: 2114
Merit: 619
The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster.

We'll have to see if this is an actual bull market because the lower the price sinks, the more likely it becomes that it has been a bull run within an overall bear market.

If we look back at historical price action, we don't generally break above the most important moving averages to dive under them some months later. In a bull market we stay well above them for quite a long time, which is something we haven't seen happen this year. Another thing is how little support there was around the 200DMA, while sellers right now are lined up to sell any attempt to break higher.
Yes not to forget that I just saw the BTC chart yesterday and it clearly displays some sort of death crossover coming up in a matter of few days with today's fall this looks even more practical. The bullish momentum is starting to get over and I think we might just once again move into sub 6-7k range. You can see the 50MA is coming downwards towards the 200MA to intersect it also not to forget as you mentioned we are still floating below the 200MA.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1427
The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster.

We'll have to see if this is an actual bull market because the lower the price sinks, the more likely it becomes that it has been a bull run within an overall bear market.

If we look back at historical price action, we don't generally break above the most important moving averages to dive under them some months later. In a bull market we stay well above them for quite a long time, which is something we haven't seen happen this year. Another thing is how little support there was around the 200DMA, while sellers right now are lined up to sell any attempt to break higher.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 2213
First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine  Smiley  

Cool theory but with only 2 data points, it's just as likely there is no sustainable pattern at all, or that the cycle would take between 500 and 1,000 days.

True story, this is also why I'm not interested in comparing the block halvings because there are only 2 sets of data. By definition, this can't be used in statistical analysis, but can only be used to compare to each other. To put it simply; 1 occurrence is an isolated event, 2 occurrences is considered coincidence, 3 occurrences is considered a pattern.
The time to be theorizing about the relevance of the block halving will be in 2024, not 2020 in my opinion.
sr. member
Activity: 1176
Merit: 286
next halving bitcoin price can reach 135000 usd per btc ,  There is a dump now  in the market , but be confident that there is work in hiding like last year , as for low price can drop 25000 usd per btc in cases of crash like any past halving
Prices can stable above 35000 usd per btc easily
hero member
Activity: 2114
Merit: 619
It is really happening the halving and the effect it can have with the price of bitcoin, we are  now in the third time halving is occurring and so far it is all positive but what if the halving now will be crucial for Bitcoin and end up negatively well we will never know, and I guess that is why we have an indicator for all-time low as well to simply see the support levels for bitcoin and that is good that we all care not only for all-time highs but all-time low as well,

This is a good analysis and an indicator that all criteria have met for us to proceed to another all-time high if the halving will be successful.
I think all time low is not an indicator it's just a point where btc reached and supports and resistances aren't indicators too they are called pivot points in general.
First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine  Smiley 

Cool theory but with only 2 data points, it's just as likely there is no sustainable pattern at all, or that the cycle would take between 500 and 1,000 days.

Extrapolation is fun but chances are the next cycle won't look like the previous ones. The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster. This supports an alternate theory that the cycles might accelerate as investors try to front-run each other before the next bubble.
This might also be due to increased number of users and holders which is why these reversals now are taking much lesser time than what they took earlier.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine  Smiley  

Cool theory but with only 2 data points, it's just as likely there is no sustainable pattern at all, or that the cycle would take between 500 and 1,000 days.

Extrapolation is fun but chances are the next cycle won't look like the previous ones. The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster. This supports an alternate theory that the cycles might accelerate as investors try to front-run each other before the next bubble.
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 1169
It is really happening the halving and the effect it can have with the price of bitcoin, we are  now in the third time halving is occurring and so far it is all positive but what if the halving now will be crucial for Bitcoin and end up negatively well we will never know, and I guess that is why we have an indicator for all-time low as well to simply see the support levels for bitcoin and that is good that we all care not only for all-time highs but all-time low as well,

This is a good analysis and an indicator that all criteria have met for us to proceed to another all-time high if the halving will be successful.
hero member
Activity: 2114
Merit: 619
So basically you are saying we should just buy Bitcoin immediately after halving and then we should hold it until a few years because as far as I can see it takes a few months after the halving for pump to begin.

That is up to you, and you have your money, you are free to buy bitcoin right now or later Grin

But if I were you, I will buy bitcoin every time the price is down, and sell it every time the price is up. But I don't forget to save some amount of bitcoin to prepare for selling in the future because I am sure the price will be at the highest price. We are near the end of this year, and it's only 2 months later we will see the next year, so I don't want to be late to buy bitcoin at a low price.
I think you are right but you know what is the problem here. It's the problem of identifying the highs and lows. I mean you said when price is down how would you determine that price is down? And it won't go more down. And selling when you are up then how would you determine that it cannot go more up. Moreover what if the price goes more down? What your next reaction? Can you tell?
hero member
Activity: 2604
Merit: 816
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So basically you are saying we should just buy Bitcoin immediately after halving and then we should hold it until a few years because as far as I can see it takes a few months after the halving for pump to begin.

That is up to you, and you have your money, you are free to buy bitcoin right now or later Grin

But if I were you, I will buy bitcoin every time the price is down, and sell it every time the price is up. But I don't forget to save some amount of bitcoin to prepare for selling in the future because I am sure the price will be at the highest price. We are near the end of this year, and it's only 2 months later we will see the next year, so I don't want to be late to buy bitcoin at a low price.
hero member
Activity: 1470
Merit: 655
bitcoin price became moderately stable after another drop and people started to focus too much on halving again just like earlier this year during the $3k price run.
i am afraid that they are going to put too much thought into halving and the rise that is supposedly going to happen because of it while they miss out all the other rises that happen. for example all those who were focusing on halving this year missed the 250% rise!
hero member
Activity: 1036
Merit: 514
I also see the all-time lows, there's someone who made a comparison with that before and it's interesting if you are a holder that starts to lose hope.


Original source: https://twitter.com/1stcrasscitizen/status/1079567859548807173?lang=en
Image source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/abznev/judge_bitcoin_by_yearly_lows_not_all_time_highs/

The third halving price might be higher than the ATH but when?

both ATH and the lows this person is talking about are equally bad numbers to look at because they are both fake prices that are the product of overly excited people buying or selling too much respectively. in fact, when you are looking at those lows you are also looking at a "bubble" but in reverse. a while ago I posted something about the reverse bubbles and how $3k (the low of this cycle) was, in fact, a reverse bubble. we later saw how it "reverse popped" as the price jumped up to $2000 in a matter of hours.

Which price tag did you refer to? Better to see the ATH or the lowest as it's clear as the standard measurement for new adopters to assess bitcoins growth over time. If it's not the ATH nor the ATL then it's the "mean number" of bitcoin price every year? But it won't be accurate, even in the market charts only show ATH and All-time lows
sr. member
Activity: 560
Merit: 250
So basically you are saying we should just buy Bitcoin immediately after halving and then we should hold it until a few years because as far as I can see it takes a few months after the halving for pump to begin.

I think he meant to say bitcoin is not dead as many claim it to be. With every halving comes new prospect. It adds to the potential of Bitcoin's price. So as we are moving to 2020 and halving is coming closer, we can even hope for $40-50K coming soon.
sr. member
Activity: 1498
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As you can see after all bitcoin halving the price becomes high then later on it will become cheap so basically, expect that after the bitcoin halving there is a big possibility it will pump again and might set a new all-time high price in the market. I also guess that before in the bitcoin halving the price might pump to the moon then after the halving the price might pump up to the mars. I just hope that this coming halving will be the key to the pump price of bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 714
Merit: 252
So basically you are saying we should just buy Bitcoin immediately after halving and then we should hold it until a few years because as far as I can see it takes a few months after the halving for pump to begin.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1655
I created a similar thread on our local boards here: Bitcoin Block Halving.

In a nutshell:

First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine  Smiley  
sr. member
Activity: 1540
Merit: 420
www.Artemis.co
If the history will repeat itself then another FOMO season will surely occur after the halving and Bitcoin will set a new record again. The chart is really motivating and history don’t lie probably same old scenario will happen again during this cycle.
hero member
Activity: 2114
Merit: 619
Halving creates the demand as there is cut down on the supply. Based on the same is the expectation of price reaching big by the days prior or after the halving. If this hasn't happened as calculated what way will it be traveling. We keep reference the previous charts of halving. In a decentralized network any way of move could happen. We can't make any changes, even the whales can't manipulate by the time of halving.

If such scenario prevails what will be the price of bitcoin. Will there be growth with altcoins as each and every altcoin is bonded with bitcoin for its growth.
Actually halving doesn't hampers the currently circulating supply in the economy all it does is slows down the creation of further supply so the price will only be affected if there is a corresponding demand along with the decrease in pace of supply. This is a bit natural explanation to why halving has affected the price pumps.
I also see the all-time lows, there's someone who made a comparison with that before and it's interesting if you are a holder that starts to lose hope.


Original source: https://twitter.com/1stcrasscitizen/status/1079567859548807173?lang=en
Image source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/abznev/judge_bitcoin_by_yearly_lows_not_all_time_highs/

Third halving price might be higher than the ATH but when?
both ATH and the lows this person is talking about are equally bad numbers to look at because they are both fake prices that are the product of overly excited people buying or selling too much respectively. in fact when you are looking at those lows you are also looking at a "bubble" but in reverse. a while ago i posted something about the reverse bubbles and how $3k (the low of this cycle) was in fact a reverse bubble. we later saw how it "reverse popped" as price jumped up $2000 in matter of hours.
Yes definitely these lows are definitely fabricated lows which happen due to sudden FUD of people but the rebound takes place immediately when people realize that the price is quite low than what Bitcoin's intrinsic value is and they rush in to buy thus giving the value a good rebound.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
I also see the all-time lows, there's someone who made a comparison with that before and it's interesting if you are a holder that starts to lose hope.


Original source: https://twitter.com/1stcrasscitizen/status/1079567859548807173?lang=en
Image source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/abznev/judge_bitcoin_by_yearly_lows_not_all_time_highs/

Third halving price might be higher than the ATH but when?

both ATH and the lows this person is talking about are equally bad numbers to look at because they are both fake prices that are the product of overly excited people buying or selling too much respectively. in fact when you are looking at those lows you are also looking at a "bubble" but in reverse. a while ago i posted something about the reverse bubbles and how $3k (the low of this cycle) was in fact a reverse bubble. we later saw how it "reverse popped" as price jumped up $2000 in matter of hours.
sr. member
Activity: 1008
Merit: 355
Phase 1: Starting price: $0
              Highest price reached in phase 1: $32
              Lowest price reached in phase 1: $2
First Halving price: $12
Phase 2: Starting price: $12
              Highest price reached in phase 1: $1163
              Lowest price reached in phase 1: $152
Second Halving price: $658
Phase 3: Starting price: $658
              Highest price reached in phase 1: $19892
              Lowest price reached in phase 1: $3129
Third Halving price: Huh??


I am sure these are inspiring figures as we are heading to the next schedule rewards halving in 2020. Watching if the third halving can be able to produce another ATH after 2017 will be an interesting for all of us. The hypes and FOMOs are now starting to build up so there is a big possibility of a self-fulfilling prophecy in here. When the sentiment is superb, I am sure that the market has more chances of picking up.


...since you do create your own thread then i would say that we cant really be sure if we would able to hit up those possible figures out of those charting patterns. We cant be sure if the said demand would be the same or more on upcoming halving event which means price can either go break that previous ATH or would still remain into these current levels.So far, im not really keen too much on where price will go as long adoption rate is tending to move up gradually.

Just like any market, nobody can guarantee that someone's predictions or projections can be coming true. The data from the past are just our guides of the possibilities that may happen. We know that in cryptocurrency market, volatility can be throwing some big surprises and there can be developments beyond our control. So let's just hope for the best and yet be ready for unexpected.


hero member
Activity: 2660
Merit: 551
Maybe it's good if you could also post how many days did we reached all-time-high from it's lowest low that year?

Currently the lowest low we got is $3k, December 2018 if I'm not mistaken.

But prior halving (2016) lowest low was $650 and then how many days in reaches $20k? Could be a good gauge to see may how days we could get to our new all time high after the block halving next year.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 3234
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Halving creates the demand as there is cut down on the supply. Based on the same is the expectation of price reaching big by the days prior or after the halving. If this hasn't happened as calculated what way will it be traveling. We keep reference the previous charts of halving. In a decentralized network any way of move could happen. We can't make any changes, even the whales can't manipulate by the time of halving.

If such scenario prevails what will be the price of bitcoin. Will there be growth with altcoins as each and every altcoin is bonded with bitcoin for its growth.
hero member
Activity: 2702
Merit: 672
I don't request loans~
If I remember correctly the highest price in each phase took a year at the least to show its effects on the market price. We can also see in the chart that with each halving, ATH of bitcoin is reached for that bitcoin. Id say we could safely assume that after the 3rd halving, bitcoin would only rise and should reach a new ATH. All time highest should be around a 1000% or 2000% increasw just based on past halvings that occured. That is excluding all possible factors of course.
hero member
Activity: 3038
Merit: 634
I also see the all-time lows, there's someone who made a comparison with that before and it's interesting if you are a holder that starts to lose hope.


Original source: https://twitter.com/1stcrasscitizen/status/1079567859548807173?lang=en
Image source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/abznev/judge_bitcoin_by_yearly_lows_not_all_time_highs/

Third halving price might be higher than the ATH but when?
hero member
Activity: 2926
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Third Halving price: Huh??

I created a post a few days ago on Halving and price but that was not backed by figures. So here is a chart which shows a similar analysis with proper figures and timeline.


We do have some same threads that do talks about this halving price predictions with more details https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-after-5-halving-10-years-from-now-what-will-be-its-price-4849889
But since you do create your own thread then i would say that we cant really be sure if we would able to hit up those possible figures out of those charting patterns.
We cant be sure if the said demand would be the same or more on upcoming halving event which means price can either go break that previous ATH or would still remain
into these current levels.So far, im not really keen too much on where price will go as long adoption rate is tending to move up gradually.
sr. member
Activity: 882
Merit: 301
I created a post a few days ago on Halving and price but that was not backed by figures. So here is a chart which shows a similar analysis with proper figures and timeline.
Where is that post? and why not just edit it instead of creating a new one?
hero member
Activity: 2114
Merit: 619
Phase 1: Starting price: $0
              Highest price reached in phase 1: $32
              Lowest price reached in phase 1: $2
First Halving price: $12
Phase 2: Starting price: $12
              Highest price reached in phase 1: $1163
              Lowest price reached in phase 1: $152
Second Halving price: $658
Phase 3: Starting price: $658
              Highest price reached in phase 1: $19892
              Lowest price reached in phase 1: $3129
Third Halving price: Huh??

I created a post a few days ago on Halving and price but that was not backed by figures. So here is a chart which shows a similar analysis with proper figures and timeline.



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