Bitcoin halving and what may happen next - page 2.

raphma

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Quote from: Bought on April 29, 2016, 06:42:55 PM

Almost everybody expects a price rise when the halving comes. In the whole of bitcoin history the majority have pretty much always been wrong. I dont see why the halving would be any different. Im pretty sure the last halving did not signify a price increase. Im aware it went up a few months later but that may have been nothing to do with the halving. I hope im wrong.

Errr... and why do you think the price is already going up? how to you think china farms will handle half reward per block?
sorry, but what you said doesnt make sense.

The Sceptical Chymist

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What may happen at the halvening is that I'll be a Hero member on bitcointalk. At that point bitcoin will probably still be pegged at $420 and all you hens will be whining about the rocket ship being short of fuel. And I'd like to join a much better signature campaign at that point. Good times ahead, good times.

maydna

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i can only hope that the rate will rise until reach $800 when is halving, and after that still rise

Bought

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Almost everybody expects a price rise when the halving comes. In the whole of bitcoin history the majority have pretty much always been wrong. I dont see why the halving would be any different. Im pretty sure the last halving did not signify a price increase. Im aware it went up a few months later but that may have been nothing to do with the halving. I hope im wrong.

cryptimus prime

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So the BTC halving will cause all problems inherent in the community and tech to disappear suddenly? Great.
BTC halving caused price rise will, after it has reached 600 USD, continue rising forever or even climb at a faster rate and so remain very interesting for further investors who will be full of hopium and buy more and more? Makes sense, the same thoughts had probably the bagholders around 1000 USD, when BTC suddenly dropped.

Or could it be that something different, more logical market behaviour could occur? What could it be and could it happen at the point of highest mania?
Figure it out on your own. Wink

Regarding the alt market: Most alts are worthless, either clones of BTC or now ETH. You can count the alternative coins with a future on one hand, ETH, XMR, after them there is probably nothing, scam, vapour, more marketing then development.

spartak_t

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Quote from: vasigap on April 29, 2016, 12:30:58 PM

I think that you missed the most important factor, greed.
If Miners are making 38k/Month, why would they just accept 19k ? when they KNOW that they can make 38k...

For me, the most likely scenario is : miners will be unhappy about the halving, and will continue to farm normally(why would they sell hundreds of thousands of dollars in equipment ? and another question, who would buy it ?) they will start accumulating and gonna sell btc just to cover expenses.
With less offer, the price will go up, wont say 100% because some of miners will fear to hold btc for long time and will start selling, but it will rise a lot...

I wouldn't call it greed. It will be plain stupid if they are selling all of their Bitcoins to make profit in fiat. I would call it "investment" (to hold and see how the market will react after halving).

Btw, imo, they started to accumulate long time ago. Recent rise of Bitcoin is not only, because some people decided to throw more money in it, but it may be also because the sell pressure is lower.

vasigap

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Quote from: spartak_t on April 29, 2016, 10:25:02 AM

Quote from: google98 on April 29, 2016, 09:33:04 AM

I could also imagine that halving results in a dump of bitcoins because it simply doesn't pay off anymore for the miners...Will be interesting to watch.

I think that the average price of electricity in China (which many of you know control majority of the Bitcoin's hashrate) is about 0.08$/kWh. Let's assume that we are using 200 x Antminer S7, which total hashrate is 1PH (deliberately raised the hashrate and the power consumption of the device), and power consumption is 1250W per device (0.25W/GH). That means our total power consumption is 250kWh (or 6000kWh/day), which is $480/day (based on the price in China) or $14,400/month. With such equipment, at the current difficulty, you will be able to mine about 2.81 BTC/day or 84,3 BTC/month, which (based on current price of Bitcoin) means $1265/day or $37,935/month. If we assume that the price and difficulty of Bitcoin stays the same after halving, then you will mine $632/day or $18,968/month worth of Bitcoins. The price of Bitcoin (as many people think) will most likely not stay the same after reward halving, but even if it stays, the chinese will be fine.

P.S. Keep in mind that the major mining farms in China made a ROI long time ago. They are not stupid. With that said (and using my calculations), they will be profiting until the price of Bitcoin reaches $350, which is not likely to happen...

I think that you missed the most important factor, greed.
If Miners are making 38k/Month, why would they just accept 19k ? when they KNOW that they can make 38k...

For me, the most likely scenario is : miners will be unhappy about the halving, and will continue to farm normally(why would they sell hundreds of thousands of dollars in equipment ? and another question, who would buy it ?) they will start accumulating and gonna sell btc just to cover expenses.
With less offer, the price will go up, wont say 100% because some of miners will fear to hold btc for long time and will start selling, but it will rise a lot...

Vaccinus

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Quote from: Wosterlee on April 29, 2016, 10:46:42 AM

Price is only going up.

Why?

1- Halving speculation. Everybody in cryptoland is expecting a price increase. A self fullfilling prophecy.
2- Greater mass adoption/awareness (Steam, OpenBazaar)
3- Economic turmoil in the world will increase
4- Most average joes only know about Bitcoin

Sure we will see some price fluctuations on the way. Some mainstream FUD perhaps, accompanied by some scandals. Price discoveries go from undervalued to overvalued and somewhere in between.

this man speak the truth

Tacalt

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I think halving could double the price from $400 to $800. The halving rally has already started for some time.

spartak_t

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Quote from: Red-Apple on April 29, 2016, 11:34:10 AM

a lot of altcoins are being dumped every day and many of them never recover, i don't think this is going to change because of bitcoin price.
i think it will only affect a couple of them like eth to go down and like ltc to go up.

When I said "a lot of altcoins", I meant the ones that matter and people have genuine interest in them.

Quote from: rdnkjdi on April 29, 2016, 11:39:28 AM

You are assuming most of the Chinese miners are paying retail for their electricity. I heavily suspect it's more like being in partnership with those in govt controlling the plant and splitting the profits.

Or a big part of the chinese mining farms are stealing electricity?

I just wanted to make fair calculations, but of course I am 101% sure that in reality, a major part of these miners have lower costs on electricity.

Bought

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Im expecting absolutely nothing to happen when the halving comes. If anything i could see a dump when people realise the bitcoin is not going to double in price. If we manage to stick at 450 or their abouts then i will be happy with that. Growth can come later.

rdnkjdi

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Quote from: spartak_t on April 29, 2016, 10:25:02 AM

Quote from: google98 on April 29, 2016, 09:33:04 AM

I could also imagine that halving results in a dump of bitcoins because it simply doesn't pay off anymore for the miners...Will be interesting to watch.

I think that the average price of electricity in China (which many of you know control majority of the Bitcoin's hashrate) is about 0.08$/kWh. Let's assume that we are using 200 x Antminer S7, which total hashrate is 1PH (deliberately raised the hashrate and the power consumption of the device), and power consumption is 1250W per device (0.25W/GH). That means our total power consumption is 250kWh (or 6000kWh/day), which is $480/day (based on the price in China) or $14,400/month. With such equipment, at the current difficulty, you will be able to mine about 2.81 BTC/day or 84,3 BTC/month, which (based on current price of Bitcoin) means $1265/day or $37,935/month. If we assume that the price and difficulty of Bitcoin stays the same after halving, then you will mine $632/day or $18,968/month worth of Bitcoins. The price of Bitcoin (as many people think) will most likely not stay the same after reward halving, but even if it stays, the chinese will be fine.

P.S. Keep in mind that the major mining farms in China made a ROI long time ago. They are not stupid. With that said (and using my calculations), they will be profiting until the price of Bitcoin reaches $350, which is not likely to happen...

You are assuming most of the Chinese miners are paying retail for their electricity. I heavily suspect it's more like being in partnership with those in govt controlling the plant and splitting the profits.

Red-Apple

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Quote from: spartak_t on April 29, 2016, 04:55:20 AM

About 73 days left until Bitcoin halving and I have reasons to believe that:
- BTC price will be in the $600 - $700 range

i agree, there will definitely going to be a big rise in bitcoin price and the least amount is 600-700 but many believe that it will go past the ATH

Quote

- A lot of alt coins will be dumped and probably never recover

a lot of altcoins are being dumped every day and many of them never recover, i don't think this is going to change because of bitcoin price.
i think it will only affect a couple of them like eth to go down and like ltc to go up.

Quote

Many Bitcoin supporters claim that it can be used for pretty much anything, and that we don't need other cryptocurrencies, but I could not agree with that. I somehow believe that we are in trouble, because cryptoworld needs several currencies in order to survive as it is (of course, so called s*itcoins are not considered).

What is your opinion?

i don't say crypto-world needs several currencies but i certainly believe that there is no reason why other cryptocurrencies can not live side by side with bitcoin and also in case that any of them (the current alts or the future alts) become popular doesn't mean bitcoin will die or even go down in price.

hawkins

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Quote from: fortunecrypto on April 29, 2016, 09:31:32 AM

Quote from: spartak_t on April 29, 2016, 06:00:42 AM

Quote from: Hermanny on April 29, 2016, 05:53:12 AM

Why alt coins will be dumped when the halving happens?

Because a speculation will precede and follow the Bitcoin halving. Probably a lot of people will decide to participate in it, and they will most likely exchange their alts for Bitcoin.

Totally agree if the price of bitcoin zooms to $600 then any altcoins that are not performing well in the market should be exchange to bitcoins so it's a battle of survival for altcoins this year..

I think it's true. if the price of halving will give effect to all the coins referred bitcoin and altcoin, altcoin price may be greater when halving happen and I guess in this may be very many new emerging altcoin

Wosterlee

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Price is only going up.

Why?

1- Halving speculation. Everybody in cryptoland is expecting a price increase. A self fullfilling prophecy.
2- Greater mass adoption/awareness (Steam, OpenBazaar)
3- Economic turmoil in the world will increase
4- Most average joes only know about Bitcoin

Sure we will see some price fluctuations on the way. Some mainstream FUD perhaps, accompanied by some scandals. Price discoveries go from undervalued to overvalued and somewhere in between.

robelneo

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Quote from: google98 on April 29, 2016, 09:33:04 AM

I could also imagine that halving results in a dump of bitcoins because it simply doesn't pay off anymore for the miners...Will be interesting to watch.

I think it will be the other way around with the limited supply of Bitcoin because of the halving demands will rise this is what all the experts are predicting that is going to happen after the halving and yes it is going to be interesting

spartak_t

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Quote from: google98 on April 29, 2016, 09:33:04 AM

I could also imagine that halving results in a dump of bitcoins because it simply doesn't pay off anymore for the miners...Will be interesting to watch.

I think that the average price of electricity in China (which many of you know control majority of the Bitcoin's hashrate) is about 0.08$/kWh. Let's assume that we are using 200 x Antminer S7, which total hashrate is 1PH (deliberately raised the hashrate and the power consumption of the device), and power consumption is 1250W per device (0.25W/GH). That means our total power consumption is 250kWh (or 6000kWh/day), which is $480/day (based on the price in China) or $14,400/month. With such equipment, at the current difficulty, you will be able to mine about 2.81 BTC/day or 84,3 BTC/month, which (based on current price of Bitcoin) means $1265/day or $37,935/month. If we assume that the price and difficulty of Bitcoin stays the same after halving, then you will mine $632/day or $18,968/month worth of Bitcoins. The price of Bitcoin (as many people think) will most likely not stay the same after reward halving, but even if it stays, the chinese will be fine.

P.S. Keep in mind that the major mining farms in China made a ROI long time ago. They are not stupid. With that said (and using my calculations), they will be profiting until the price of Bitcoin reaches $350, which is not likely to happen...

google98

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I could also imagine that halving results in a dump of bitcoins because it simply doesn't pay off anymore for the miners...Will be interesting to watch.

fortunecrypto

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Quote from: spartak_t on April 29, 2016, 06:00:42 AM

Quote from: Hermanny on April 29, 2016, 05:53:12 AM

Why alt coins will be dumped when the halving happens?

Because a speculation will precede and follow the Bitcoin halving. Probably a lot of people will decide to participate in it, and they will most likely exchange their alts for Bitcoin.

Totally agree if the price of bitcoin zooms to $600 then any altcoins that are not performing well in the market should be exchange to bitcoins so it's a battle of survival for altcoins this year..

maxsinner

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Quote from: Hermanny on April 29, 2016, 05:53:12 AM

Quote from: spartak_t on April 29, 2016, 04:55:20 AM

About 73 days left until Bitcoin halving and I have reasons to believe that:
- BTC price will be in the $600 - $700 range
- A lot of alt coins will be dumped and probably never recover

Many Bitcoin supporters claim that it can be used for pretty much anything, and that we don't need other cryptocurrencies, but I could not agree with that. I somehow believe that we are in trouble, because cryptoworld needs several currencies in order to survive as it is (of course, so called s*itcoins are not considered).

What is your opinion?

Why alt coins will be dumped when the halving happens?

As the price of BTC increases, people tend to keep smaller positions in alts, thus reducing the demand and increasing the supply. The rest is economics 101.

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