Bitcoin Halving only 1 year away | Bitcointalksearch.org

adultcrypto

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Quote from: 1miau on January 21, 2024, 12:54:21 PM

Overally, Bitcoin is looking extremely bullish after ETF approval.

To me the ETF approval is a good thing even though it did not produce the price rise I expected. Overall the market is looking great, as can be seen from the reluctance of the market to go below $41k in a retracement that have tarried for about two weeks now. It shows the upward potential is still stronger than ever.

Quote from: 1miau on January 21, 2024, 12:54:21 PM

Transaction fees are already considerably lower compared to few weeks ago.
Halving will be next, where Block rewards will be lowered from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per mined Block.

I don't see much reasons currently to be bearish on Bitcoin.

Instead of being bearish, I think its wiser to use the retracement as opportunity to buy more. I have strong believe that the halving will lead to a massive rise in price. I understand some people might become skeptical about bull run as the ETF could not activate it completely. The big pockets might just be playing with our emotions and decide to use the halving instead.

1miau

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Let's have an update here.

Halving is only 100 days away (87 days and a few hours, to be more accurate):

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/

Overally, Bitcoin is looking extremely bullish after ETF approval.
Transaction fees are already considerably lower compared to few weeks ago.
Halving will be next, where Block rewards will be lowered from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per mined Block.

I don't see much reasons currently to be bearish on Bitcoin.

skarais

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Quote from: Ale88 on May 04, 2023, 03:26:50 PM

It's crazy to think how time flies, I can't believe next year the rewards will be so small, at least looking from a bitcoin amount, of course if we think is US$ it's a lot of money anyway, especially because the value after the halving will keep growing. And yet there are so many people who think they're late to the bitcoin party, they really have no idea of the mistake they're making...

We don't have to regret what we have missed in the past, but something wrong must be corrected to prepare for a better future. There is no point regretting what is behind, but the valuable lesson is that we may have to be absolutely sure not to miss this important moment especially for long term investment purposes.

I hope the bitcoin price is comparable to the bitcoin reward after the halving. The lower the reward, then I hope miners will still stick around to do it if bitcoin is 2x to 3x more expensive than it is right now.

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Quote from: Sidra101 on May 04, 2023, 06:02:56 AM

Not a big deal again that bitcoin halving happens every four years, where the amount of new Bitcoins created by the Bitcoin network is reduced by half. This controls the supply of new Bitcoins to prevent inflation and makes it more valuable over time. Back to history; The first halving was in 2012 when 50 Bitcoins were reduced to 25, and the second was in 2016 when 25 Bitcoins became 12.5. The most recent was in 2020, where 12.5 Bitcoins became 6.25. So., Investors, traders, and miners should keep an eye on Bitcoin halving as it has been followed by a significant increase in Bitcoin's price in the past.

I disagree, I think Bitcoin halving is a big deal since it reduces it block reward by half. This lower the supply and often time it is the catalyst to a bull run that leads to new records of all-time highs. It is also one of the features of Bitcoin that caters or attract more investors because of the system's anti-inflation and its tendency to deflate due to some users losing their access to their wallets. If it is not a big deal then why would investors, traders and miner to keep on ey to the Bitcoin halving?

Quote from: Ale88 on May 04, 2023, 03:26:50 PM

It's crazy to think how time flies, I can't believe next year the rewards will be so small, at least looking from a bitcoin amount, of course if we think is US$ it's a lot of money anyway, especially because the value after the halving will keep growing. And yet there are so many people who think they're late to the bitcoin party, they really have no idea of the mistake they're making...

Yeah, time really flies so fast especially when we are busy with things in our hands. The year when I first got into Bitcoin was just like yesterday. And now experiencing the halving for the third time is just less than 1 year away.

Oasisman

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Quote from: Ale88 on May 04, 2023, 03:26:50 PM

Quote from: 1miau on April 08, 2023, 04:03:12 PM

After Bitcoin's block rewards were halved the last time in May 2020 from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per Block, we'll see a new halving in 2024 (expected to be in April 2024), decreasing Bitcoin's block reward from 6.25 BTC (which is valid actually) to 3.125 BTC per block.

And honestly, we need to admit that 3.125 BTC per block is very low:
Bitcoin's halving is reminding everyone once more, how truly scare Bitcoin really is.

So, important reminder for everyone how close we are already to Bitcoin's Halving.
Only 1 year to go. Wink

It's crazy to think how time flies, I can't believe next year the rewards will be so small, at least looking from a bitcoin amount, of course if we think is US$ it's a lot of money anyway, especially because the value after the halving will keep growing. And yet there are so many people who think they're late to the bitcoin party, they really have no idea of the mistake they're making...

Time flies so fast when we're busy working lol.
Next year is gonna be a challenge not only for those who wants to enter Bitcoin with everything they have hoping to get good returns, but it is a huge challenge for the miners who's going to earn 50% block rewards than what they are earning today. Some might quit, some will strengthen because they knew what Bitcoin is capable of.
I pity those who thinks they're late for the Bitcoin party and struggles to decide whether or not to purchase Btc. They will get nothing but more regrets in the future.

Ale88

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Quote from: 1miau on April 08, 2023, 04:03:12 PM

After Bitcoin's block rewards were halved the last time in May 2020 from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per Block, we'll see a new halving in 2024 (expected to be in April 2024), decreasing Bitcoin's block reward from 6.25 BTC (which is valid actually) to 3.125 BTC per block.

And honestly, we need to admit that 3.125 BTC per block is very low:
Bitcoin's halving is reminding everyone once more, how truly scare Bitcoin really is.

So, important reminder for everyone how close we are already to Bitcoin's Halving.
Only 1 year to go. Wink

It's crazy to think how time flies, I can't believe next year the rewards will be so small, at least looking from a bitcoin amount, of course if we think is US$ it's a lot of money anyway, especially because the value after the halving will keep growing. And yet there are so many people who think they're late to the bitcoin party, they really have no idea of the mistake they're making...

Jating

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Quote from: kevinzxz on May 04, 2023, 07:48:34 AM

so we only have 1 year left for DCA and after that our patience will pay off, because I believe 2024 will be a good year for cryptocurrency, because the price of Bitcoin and some Altcoin will definitely increase very high and create a new ATH price, therefore I want to take advantage of the current opportunity to do DCA Bitcoin and hold until the next bullrun comes, so that I will definitely get a big profit from doing DCA Bitcoin at this time.

History tells us that when bitcoin goes on a bull run, it has a trickle effect to the altcoins as well. Although there could be altcoins that can grow, even bigger returns but it's going to be too risky, so the best bet is bitcoin for the majority of us (or at least those maximalist).

As for the hash-rate and difficulty, it's been adjusting as well so I don't see a issue when we reach the halving 1 year from now. And for the miners, of course, they are businessman, so they will have to time the market as well when to offload their stash to make money.

https://mempool.space/

Altryist

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Quote from: AakZaki on April 19, 2023, 08:32:53 PM

Relying solely on past patterns that may repeat themselves is not recommended. There will be many factors that can affect the market and it will not be the same as the past. It may be a bit off the mark, but a bull market when the halving will happen could happen but the extent of the bullishness will be unpredictable. Crypto volatility will be very influential. Doing some risk management and strategy would be advisable. Must have a plan A and plan B when the strategy does not match the initial plan.

If we evaluate the cycles globally, then the result will be the same, after the bear market comes the bull market. To what extent it will repeat is really very difficult to say, or how much the cycles will increase or decrease is also very difficult to say, but this should worry traders, but for investors everything remains the same, we are gaining positions in the bear market and waiting for the onset of the bull market.

Whether the rise in the price of bitcoin depends on halving or not, this is not so important, I see a trend that after each halving, bitcoin becomes more expensive, even if this does not happen immediately, this suits me quite well.

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so we only have 1 year left for DCA and after that our patience will pay off, because I believe 2024 will be a good year for cryptocurrency, because the price of Bitcoin and some Altcoin will definitely increase very high and create a new ATH price, therefore I want to take advantage of the current opportunity to do DCA Bitcoin and hold until the next bullrun comes, so that I will definitely get a big profit from doing DCA Bitcoin at this time.

Sidra101

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Not a big deal again that bitcoin halving happens every four years, where the amount of new Bitcoins created by the Bitcoin network is reduced by half. This controls the supply of new Bitcoins to prevent inflation and makes it more valuable over time. Back to history; The first halving was in 2012 when 50 Bitcoins were reduced to 25, and the second was in 2016 when 25 Bitcoins became 12.5. The most recent was in 2020, where 12.5 Bitcoins became 6.25. So., Investors, traders, and miners should keep an eye on Bitcoin halving as it has been followed by a significant increase in Bitcoin's price in the past.

ItsCrafty

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Quote from: Agbe on May 03, 2023, 09:35:53 PM

Though I started my bitcoin journey in the late 2021. But from my research the last halving was in the month of May 11, 2020 and halving takes four (4) year interval to occur.

Yes btc last halving was in the year of 2021 when btc mining rewards down from 12.5 to 6.25. This was the third halving. before halving reward was 50 Satoshi and after first halving in 2012 reward drop to 25 and then then in 2016 rewards drop to 25.

Quote from: Agbe on May 03, 2023, 09:35:53 PM

We really don't know what will happen in the next halving.

Bitcoin price is unpredictable but most of the analyzer check 4 year cycle and previous bitcoin price reaction during last event to predict price. I don't that Btc can only be predicted by previous action because there are some more factor also have an impact on btc price like economic status, adoption of crypto, positive and negative news about btc and we should look for all before predicting price.

hd49728

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Quote from: Agbe on May 03, 2023, 09:35:53 PM

Though I started my bitcoin journey in the late 2021. But from my research the last halving was in the month of May 11, 2020 and halving takes four (4) year interval to occur. We really don't know what will happen in the next halving.

Bitcoin has its block reward halving every 210,000 blocks.

Block reward halving countdown

Quote

Past halving event dates

The first halving event occurred on the 28th of November, 2012 (UTC) at block height 210,000
The second halving event occurred on the 9th of July, 2016 (UTC) at block height 420,000
The third halving event occurred on the 11th of May, 2020 (UTC) at block height 630,000

From the past halving event dates and blocks at which it happened, a next block reward halving will occur at the block #840,000. In estimation, it will be about 359+ days since today.

Quote

And presently the mining fee is very high to the extend that to make a transaction is not interested to someone again. Like yesterday I was making a transaction of 0.01 BTC and the Mining Fee was 0.000222 and the Fee Rate was 906.2 Sat/B then the Target was (ETA) Within 25 Block. So because of the high mining fee rate I have to suspend the transaction till the following date and the fee bit came down so I made the transfer successful.

Are you sure that you have to pay 906.2 sat/byte in the last 24 hours or 48 hours to have a confirmation within 25 blocks?

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC%20(default%20mempool),2d,weight

Within last 48 hours, you won't have to pay more than 200+ sat/vbyte to have a confirmation within a next one to three blocks. From which wallet you made that 906.2 sat/byte transaction?

Is it from an exchange account?

Agbe

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Though I started my bitcoin journey in the late 2021. But from my research the last halving was in the month of May 11, 2020 and halving takes four (4) year interval to occur. We really don't know what will happen in the next halving. And presently the mining fee is very high to the extend that to make a transaction is not interested to someone again. Like yesterday I was making a transaction of 0.01 BTC and the Mining Fee was 0.000222 and the Fee Rate was 906.2 Sat/B then the Target was (ETA) Within 25 Block. So because of the high mining fee rate I have to suspend the transaction till the following date and the fee bit came down so I made the transfer successful.

If the next halving year will bring down the mining fee and then bring up the price of bitcoin to All Time High (ATH). Almost every is waiting to see the ATH price of Bitcoin. Though even the bear market is favouring some new investors. Most people are always comparing the bull market of 2021 to any other coming one and that is wrong because what is coming will definitely bigger than that.

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Quote from: southerngentuk on April 30, 2023, 01:45:28 PM

A useful reminder when investing in BTC is to exercise caution and good judgment. While history may suggest that halvings can lead to bull runs and new ATHs, it's important to remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. One more thing is taking on debt or risking your basic needs to invest in BTC is not advisable. Instead, learn how to DCA your investment to reduce risk and volatility. In summary, while it's understandable to be excited about the potential for BTC, it's important to approach investing with caution, patience, and a long-term perspective.

trust in bitcoin is very high and cannot be avoided, but what you say can also be true that even though bitcoin's past experience will increase when it enters the halving period and a year later it will reach a renewable ATH, but caution is still being exercised. therefore, when bitcoin is going down, immediately buy for investment, hold off until the halving occurs, so that if it misses, you won't be too disappointed because you have indeed bought it at a low price.
but it must also be remembered that bitcoin has been repeating itself all this time, so many believe that the halving period will increase the price of bitcoin.

southerngentuk

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A useful reminder when investing in BTC is to exercise caution and good judgment. While history may suggest that halvings can lead to bull runs and new ATHs, it's important to remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. One more thing is taking on debt or risking your basic needs to invest in BTC is not advisable. Instead, learn how to DCA your investment to reduce risk and volatility. In summary, while it's understandable to be excited about the potential for BTC, it's important to approach investing with caution, patience, and a long-term perspective.

tread93

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Twice as difficult to mine definitely throws a pick axe into the work required just to mine half of what they used to! Once the halving occurs the price should definitely go up simply by lower supply and higher demand!! History usually repeats itself, every halving its gone up. If bitcoin doesn't go up when this thing halves i'm going to be utterly shocked.

cydrix

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That simply indicates that it's still early and that there will be plenty of chances for us to amass Bitcoin during the coming years. When the halving comes close, the market price will soar once more, which means it might be advantageous for many investors. I mean, it could certainly increase market buzz. In addition, there will be a significant impact on mining rewards once more, which may cause many miners to lose money at that time and lower the network hash rate, which would increase transaction times and lessen network security.

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Quote from: 1miau on April 08, 2023, 04:03:12 PM

And honestly, we need to admit that 3.125 BTC per block is very low:

I am not a miner but overall, the financial economy is co-related and works dependently, and grows equally in parallel time. So if, the salaries are increasing that's because if you are buying an apple for let's say $5 for 1KG that will be $10 for 1kg in the near future. The same goes with BTC, as when the reward is reduced to 3.125 (almost half) the price will be doubled and i think miners will be able to make the same reward or maybe more, just my thoughts, as the transactions fee will be increased too, so they will earn from validation too.

As prices will definitely go up due to high demand and low supply, this will increase the BTC prices and miners will be able to make the same reward or maybe more there is definitely a possibility of less profit if the price didn't increase. Plus the image you have used is really amazing I would love to see a resource of it.

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Wow, that is serious about Bitcoin halving spreadsheet analysis, shows that for every Bitcoin halving it keeps on decreasing per block for miner's and I seen Bitcoin price will be scarce in the market, which demands will be greater than supply demand in the cryptocurrency market.

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Quote from: Ozero on April 26, 2023, 02:06:19 AM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on April 08, 2023, 06:29:29 PM

I think with every halvening the effect on the price will be smaller and smaller, because the absolute decrease in rewards is also getting smaller. Soon 93% of all coins will be mined, so most of the scarcity is already priced in. The price is a result of supply and demand, and demand will play bigger and bigger role while supply is approaching the limit.

We already saw only 3.5 times increase between bull market peaks of the last two cycles - so maybe the next will bring only a x1.5-1.75 increase, so $100k peak of the next cycle.

Most likely, your assumption is correct. With each new halving, the price growth of bitcoin as a percentage will decrease. That is, within a year after the next halving, already in 2025, the price of bitcoin will approach one hundred thousand dollars. In addition, it should be taken into account that when high price values are reached, the demand for it in peak periods will no longer be the same as in previous cycles. Also, its price will depend on the events taking place in the world, and on the level of regulation of the cryptocurrency market by states.

Yes, the next halving moment will most likely lead to a decrease in the percentage growth, external factors such as increased adoption and institutional investment could also push the price up even further and I think it makes sense that the price of bitcoin will continue to increase in the future as it is becoming more rare but important too to consider various perspectives especially when investing in Bitcoin.

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