Bitcoin has bigger chance to grow more, because capital flow now is different

stadus

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Quote from: hd49728 on December 02, 2024, 08:44:31 PM

It has advantage and risk because stable coins and altcoins are very scam.

Are you sure about this statement? Maybe you can call most altcoins scams, at least the majority that have been created - but stablecoins are a different story, especially USDT, which is backed by fiat. I know there have been baseless rumors that it could be a scam, the fact that it’s still around with nearly $300 billion in 24-hour trading volume doesn’t really support that claim. It just doesn’t add up.

You call it scam when people stop trusting them.

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Of course, the money flows towards BTC have changed considering that this is the first year in which we have spot BTC ETFs, and they are the main driver of this bull run. Anyone who thinks otherwise should look at the mempool and ask themselves how it is possible that at times like these you can send a transaction for less than $1.

My conclusion is that ordinary people are simply scared and demotivated by this price - or in other words, they managed to convince themselves that the price of BTC is too expensive and that the possible profit (in the short term) is too small. This is why a large amount of money is apparently flowing into altcoins, many of which have seen up to 100% growth in the last 7 days.

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Quote from: fikrett on December 03, 2024, 02:43:29 AM

BTC DOM factor starts to perish - and it still should trigger the rally for ETH and other big alts to follow. Alts will struggle for a while, but then - they will start outperforming BTC for a bit.
I don't see it happening otherwise.

This market cycle seems to be different a little, with memecoins began after Bitcoin, and Ripple is the next one. Ripple took over this role from Ethereum and made its new all time high. Many years ago, Ripple had short time of flippening against Ethereum, it's sweet memory for Ripple fans.

Ethereum soon will have its show and I believe that it will lead a massive altcoin season next year. This year, it's year of Bitcoin, meme coins and Ripple, next year will belong to Ethereum, but it will be another bullish year for Bitcoin. Because if next year is bearish for Bitcoin, there will be no massive altcoin season in 2025.

It shows very big role of Bitcoin in cryptocurrency market, as a leader, or someone call it as The king of cryptocurrency.

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Quote from: stadus on December 02, 2024, 06:29:34 AM

So, if it's no longer dependent on Bitcoin, are you saying that an altcoin season could arrive even if the Bitcoin market isn't bullish? Because, as far as I remember from the past, particularly the 2017 bull run, the definition of 'altcoin season' was truly witnessed when the entire crypto market was profitable.

Bitcoin started the run, and the altcoins followed. But if that dynamic has changed now, since Bitcoin no longer needs to be paired with altcoins due to stablecoins, does this mean that a bull run might not trigger an altcoin season?

BTC DOM factor starts to perish - and it still should trigger the rally for ETH and other big alts to follow. Alts will struggle for a while, but then - they will start outperforming BTC for a bit.
I don't see it happening otherwise.

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Quote from: mindrust on December 02, 2024, 03:05:18 PM

Some alts are doing huge moves lately. Litecoin for example low key reached $130. It was considered dead by a lot of people and recently it is making its investors quite happy. It is up 40% in the last 7 days while bitcoin is only up 1% according to coinmarketcap. That's a clear indication that money is flowing from btc to alts imo. And it is not only LTC. Cardano and XRP are making massive moves too. It is like a dejavu now. Many altcoin holders waited so long for this moment and now they are getting their reward for their patience. Bitcoin will always be the king of crypto but let's face it, good established alts will never vanish.

Personally, I am happy for LTC.
Digital silver should be cherished by those not believing in its potential Grin

After BTC DOM falls off, we would be able to see bigger alts starting to flip BTC in terms of funds flowing to it. At least that's how I see it.

davis196

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Quote

In previous cycles especially early years since 2009, cryptocurrency market is mainly around bitcoin, altcoins have trading pairs with Bitcoin. This make capital flow in and out of Bitcoin in this market, will be one of signal for altcoin season. This is pressure on Bitcoin like selling pressure when people feel they don't have good opportunity for profit with Bitcoin, they convert bitcoin to altcoins in altcoin/bitcoin trading pairs.

In this cycle, capital flow is different, and stable coins have bigger roles, that help Bitcoin to avoid selling pressures from traders and investors who want to flip capital around.

Like other forum members have stated, I don't remember altcoins being bullish when Bitcoin was bearish. The so called "altcoin season" happens only when Bitcoin is bullish. Also, the people, who feel that they don't have "good opportunity for profit with Bitcoin" always had the option to sell BTC for fiat and buy BTC later on. Stablecoins don't change munch on the markets. Yes, they add convenience to the process of crypto trading, but I don't think that selling BTC for stablecoins and selling BTC for fiat is that different. Altcoins were always bearish when BTC was bearish, so I don't think that selling BTC for altcoins would've increased the profits of the crypto traders. I'm talking about the big altcoins, not the shitcoin pump-and-dump scams. The profit opportunity in shitcoin/memecoin pump-and-dump scams is on another level, but they are supposed to be illegal.

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Quote from: Gozie51 on December 02, 2024, 11:59:07 PM

This is interesting enough, despite the influence of stable coins in the market lately, Bitcoin still maintained over 50% dominance. I was reading through coindesk to realize this influence in the area of capital inflow into the crypto market through stable coin like USDT, USDC, BUSD but for 17 months, the bulk of the transaction is on Bitcoin

Quote

The turnaround comes as bitcoin BTC has doubled to over $35,000 this year,

.

It is certain that the confidence and dominance of bitcoin is still high and trusted and that makes investors who think of liquidating their investment to either move within Bitcoin and stable coins.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/15/crypto-market-sees-net-capital-inflow-for-first-time-in-17-months

If we take a close look at all these events in the crypto market at large, it shows that Bitcoin is gaining more popularity, and as such, the value of Bitcoin will keep on souring, let's not forget that we are still in the early days of Bitcoin, the numbers of people no using Bitcoin or those people that knows nothing about it are way much more than we that are aware of it, so I believe that as times goes on, when their is more adoption, Bitcoin can go as high as $1M in the future when more countries and more people start investing their money in it, it's just a matter of time.

Then as for the continuous dominance of Bitcoin in the crypto market, it shouldn't be a thing of surprise because it is is not just the first cryptocurrency but also the most trusted among all, and I believe that, it dominance isn't stopping anytime soon with the kind of inflow of money investing in Bitcoin.

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This is interesting enough, despite the influence of stable coins in the market lately, Bitcoin still maintained over 50% dominance. I was reading through coindesk to realize this influence in the area of capital inflow into the crypto market through stable coin like USDT, USDC, BUSD but for 17 months, the bulk of the transaction is on Bitcoin

Quote

The turnaround comes as bitcoin BTC has doubled to over $35,000 this year,

.

It is certain that the confidence and dominance of bitcoin is still high and trusted and that makes investors who think of liquidating their investment to either move within Bitcoin and stable coins.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/15/crypto-market-sees-net-capital-inflow-for-first-time-in-17-months

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Quote from: stadus on December 02, 2024, 08:33:39 AM

I think this is a sign that the market is maturing. Before the era of Bitcoin/altcoin trading, you had to deal with the volatility of both coins. Typically, when there was demand for Bitcoin, altcoin values would decrease, and vice versa. Now, with fiat/USDT, you can focus more on your trading strategy since you're only dealing with the volatility of one asset, given that USDT, a stablecoin, has a stable value.

It has advantage and risk because stable coins and altcoins are very scam. The market possibly will have other black swan events like Luna, FTX in 2022 because they actually affect whole cryptocurrency market including Bitcoin. It's kind of fear but I know biggest effects on the market come from Bitcoin, so if there is no black swan event with Bitcoin technically, the whole market will be well eventually.

I don't trust stable coins. I can not prohibit people to use stable coins, but knowing about risk can help me to manage my capital better.
PSA: Most Stablecoins Can Be Frozen, Even in Your Own Wallets
Stable coins: a deep dive into valuation and depegging.

Quote from: Upgrade00 on December 02, 2024, 12:21:48 PM

But, wouldn't this mean that bicoin has a higher chance not to dip in price significantly than it actually growing more?

Dips will continue to appear but with less severity. By less severity of corrections, dips, I implied that it is possibly less severe in percent, but in $ value, maybe it will not be small. Because 10% dip from $100,000 is $10,000 that is bigger than 20% dip from $20,000 or $40,000.

Darker45

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That sounds logical. Before, it's either you're with Bitcoin or you're with altcoin. You can't have both, and you can't have neither. It's either you keep your Bitcoin or sell it for altcoin, such that if Bitcoin's price falls, it signals that the money is moving into the altcoin market, and vice versa.

Today, however, in the top 10 alone, there are already 2 stablecoins, powerful coins. Indeed, this has changed the playing field significantly. One can now get out of the Bitcoin market without necessarily going into the altcoin market, and vice versa. The signal is lost. People can park their funds on something stable and trade from there as well. That the largest volume in the entire cryptocurrency market belongs to a stablecoin is indicative of that.

mindrust

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Some alts are doing huge moves lately. Litecoin for example low key reached $130. It was considered dead by a lot of people and recently it is making its investors quite happy. It is up 40% in the last 7 days while bitcoin is only up 1% according to coinmarketcap. That's a clear indication that money is flowing from btc to alts imo. And it is not only LTC. Cardano and XRP are making massive moves too. It is like a dejavu now. Many altcoin holders waited so long for this moment and now they are getting their reward for their patience. Bitcoin will always be the king of crypto but let's face it, good established alts will never vanish.

BIT-BENDER

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Quote from: Iranus on December 02, 2024, 11:31:48 AM

[
But can't completely deny OP's post. I also read Ki Young Ju's recent posts and have to admit that what he wrote may happen in the future. Since the bitcoin ETF was approved, most of the money flowing into bitcoin has been through ETFs and it is not easy to shift money from ETFs to the altcoin market. So if the altcoin market wants to survive, there needs to be new money unrelated to bitcoin ETFs.

I am not the one to take people's future prediction too seriously, to me it's just another speculation. Yes their has been lots of money flowing into Bitcoin through ETFs. But what we talking about here is more that just ETFs alone. Logically to many Bitcoin is the safest Crypto-currency and this trend may not change. All eyes remains on Bitcoin, so Bitcoin determines the market Regardless of any other factor(they all still favours Bitcoin) most investors who are pushing altcoins especially the low cap alts are just investors trying to see if they can make 10x and above but right now more people are looking for the secured crypto and that's what Bitcoin is.

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Quote from: hd49728 on December 02, 2024, 07:40:08 AM

Capital can flow directly to altcoins from fiat or stable coin, the author said this.

If it is true, more people will have their reasons to keep their capital in bitcoin, and they can use fiat or stable coin to purchase altcoins directly if they want, less reasons to switch capital in bitcoin to altcoins.

But, wouldn't this mean that bicoin has a higher chance not to dip in price significantly than it actually growing more?

The article is suggesting that there will be less use of Bitcoin as entry point for alts and so less exits from Bitcoin which should have caused aprjce dump. There will also be less pumps caused by altcoin speculators using Bitcoin as a ramp.

Ivrall it's suggesting Bitcoin to have a more controlled market than we're used to.

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Quote from: BIT-BENDER on December 02, 2024, 10:51:40 AM

From what I have read on your post I beg to differ. I have not witnessed a major surge in altcoin price without there being a surge in Bitcoin price. Yes the market is volatile and we may have some altcoins increasing when Bitcoin is dipping but this increase and decrease aren't that's significant.
To be very precise Bitcoin actually determines if their would be a bull run, the hype on Bitcoin either negative or positive has an effect on the general crypto-currency market

Look at what's going on and we'll see what's going on. As far as I can see, the altcoin market is still following bitcoin's movements, every time bitcoin corrects, most altcoins fall. There are only a few altcoins that can move against like XRP, the rest I don't see any altcoins that can rally while bitcoin corrects. So it can be said that Bitcoin is still the one who decides the market trend.

But can't completely deny OP's post. I also read Ki Young Ju's recent posts and have to admit that what he wrote may happen in the future. Since the bitcoin ETF was approved, most of the money flowing into bitcoin has been through ETFs and it is not easy to shift money from ETFs to the altcoin market. So if the altcoin market wants to survive, there needs to be new money unrelated to bitcoin ETFs.

BIT-BENDER

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From what I have read on your post I beg to differ. I have not witnessed a major surge in altcoin price without there being a surge in Bitcoin price. Yes the market is volatile and we may have some altcoins increasing when Bitcoin is dipping but this increase and decrease aren't that's significant.
To be very precise Bitcoin actually determines if their would be a bull run, the hype on Bitcoin either negative or positive has an effect on the general crypto-currency market

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Quote from: hd49728 on December 02, 2024, 06:21:58 AM

In previous cycles especially early years since 2009, cryptocurrency market is mainly around bitcoin, altcoins have trading pairs with Bitcoin. This make capital flow in and out of Bitcoin in this market, will be one of signal for altcoin season. This is pressure on Bitcoin like selling pressure when people feel they don't have good opportunity for profit with Bitcoin, they convert bitcoin to altcoins in altcoin/bitcoin trading pairs.

In this cycle, capital flow is different, and stable coins have bigger roles, that help Bitcoin to avoid selling pressures from traders and investors who want to flip capital around.

That shouldn't be the only way the Altcoin season happens, there is a reason why investors prefer using Bitcoin to enter into the Altcoin season, essentially due to the profits made from their Bitcoin holdings, since they already hit the the bull run and less or no more profits will be made out, they choose to swap or now prefer to trade into stable currencies before venturing into any other cryptocurrencies. More investors troop into the Altcoin market after the bull season not just on any Altcoin nor top ones, they prefer going into the new launched ones that has lots of potential of probably giving X100 or so from their invested capital. In the same way it probably would not matter, BTC/ALT or Stable or Fitat/ALT does not change the narrative of we experiencing the Altcoin season after the bull run.

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Quote from: stadus on December 02, 2024, 06:29:34 AM

So, if it's no longer dependent on Bitcoin, are you saying that an altcoin season could arrive even if the Bitcoin market isn't bullish?

No that is not that meant to be. It means that some people will use bitcoin in the past to buy altcoins, unlike now that stable coin has replaced that. I do not believe in something like this. I believe they are all somehow connected to fiat in the past. Many people may not be able to buy altcoins directly, but first convert to bitcoin and then buy altcoins. So if they do not buy bitcoin now but buy altcoins directly, there will still be no differences.

stadus

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Quote from: hd49728 on December 02, 2024, 07:40:08 AM

Quote from: stadus on December 02, 2024, 06:29:34 AM

So, if it's no longer dependent on Bitcoin, are you saying that an altcoin season could arrive even if the Bitcoin market isn't bullish? Because, as far as I remember from the past, particularly the 2017 bull run, the definition of 'altcoin season' was truly witnessed when the entire crypto market was profitable.

Bitcoin started the run, and the altcoins followed. But if that dynamic has changed now, since Bitcoin no longer needs to be paired with altcoins due to stablecoins, does this mean that a bull run might not trigger an altcoin season?

The author of that post said that there is no clear capital switch from Bitcoin to altcoins, with his explanation that nowadays, there are fiat and stable coins gates to enter altcoin market directly. People no longer have to enter this market by buying bitcoin, and converting bitcoin to altcoins.

Capital can flow directly to altcoins from fiat or stable coin, the author said this.

If it is true, more people will have their reasons to keep their capital in bitcoin, and they can use fiat or stable coin to purchase altcoins directly if they want, less reasons to switch capital in bitcoin to altcoins. I see this makes sense, but how much is it is unknown, because there are still Bitcoin investors who take profit and buy altcoins, just less than in previous cycles.

I think this is a sign that the market is maturing. Before the era of Bitcoin/altcoin trading, you had to deal with the volatility of both coins. Typically, when there was demand for Bitcoin, altcoin values would decrease, and vice versa. Now, with fiat/USDT, you can focus more on your trading strategy since you're only dealing with the volatility of one asset, given that USDT, a stablecoin, has a stable value.

hd49728

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Quote from: stadus on December 02, 2024, 06:29:34 AM

So, if it's no longer dependent on Bitcoin, are you saying that an altcoin season could arrive even if the Bitcoin market isn't bullish? Because, as far as I remember from the past, particularly the 2017 bull run, the definition of 'altcoin season' was truly witnessed when the entire crypto market was profitable.

Bitcoin started the run, and the altcoins followed. But if that dynamic has changed now, since Bitcoin no longer needs to be paired with altcoins due to stablecoins, does this mean that a bull run might not trigger an altcoin season?

The author of that post said that there is no clear capital switch from Bitcoin to altcoins, with his explanation that nowadays, there are fiat and stable coins gates to enter altcoin market directly. People no longer have to enter this market by buying bitcoin, and converting bitcoin to altcoins.

Capital can flow directly to altcoins from fiat or stable coin, the author said this.

If it is true, more people will have their reasons to keep their capital in bitcoin, and they can use fiat or stable coin to purchase altcoins directly if they want, less reasons to switch capital in bitcoin to altcoins. I see this makes sense, but how much is it is unknown, because there are still Bitcoin investors who take profit and buy altcoins, just less than in previous cycles.

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I don’t know; if you compare the past and the future, Bitcoin has made huge leaps, going from almost worthless to nearly $100k. I don’t think Bitcoin will hit $1 million anytime soon, but in the past, a tenfold increase was much easier.

The presence of stablecoins like USDT has made the crypto market more independent. However, we can't deny that since Bitcoin still holds significant dominance (currently 55%), a major price movement in Bitcoin will significantly affect the altcoins as well.

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