This otherwise doesn't look good at all, even though it's only the first (unconfirmed) day of a new capitulation phase. Hoping it'll simply be another correction due to stagnation of growth would be naive at this point.
The last time we had a secondary capitulation after hash rate recovery prior to a buy signal (hash & price recovery) in the past few years was in May 2021 (as highlighted below). The recovery arrived at $43K prior to price dropping to $29K, however the secondary capitulation occurred at $35K, so I find it bit vague as to whether there will be much more significant downside at present.
If we are to consider the original analysis of the potential for a 50% drop from this hash rate capitulation, that originally occurred at $30K, then there could still be a target of $15K. Either way, I think it's too early to tell. The hash rate could still recover by the end of the week signalling a recovery, or otherwise another phase of capitulation. The fact that the recovery was only signalled on the Daily chart is a concern though.
Notably while today there was a drop in hash rate to the lowest level in the past 2 weeks, the average mining cost as of yesterday was $23.4K, a considerable increase from two days before at $18.3K. It seems likely that both of these spikes (both up and down) will be short lived. Already today's decline in hash rate could well price the mining cost back below $20K for example, for further hash rate recovery.
