Topic: Bitcoin - Highs and Lows Predictable? (Read 473 times)
Bitcoin prices are predictable in a stable market to some extent. But in a volatile market predictions usually don't work. You could see that there haven't been extremely bad news but the market was still in red. There are other factors that affect the market that are not easily predictable. The only prediction I believe in is that bitcoin always has the tendency to rise after each bear market.
the high and low predictions will not always be safe, so to me one can only buy bitcoin at the lowest of price and just wait for the best to happen. i mean we can all predict that it mostly rise in December but there could be a case when it will be in November because bitcoin to me is not predictable. am just waiting for the best
Interesting topic OP, the quality of most contributions to this thread is a pity though. Could we achieve a real discussion or it's too late?
The main reason for your observation, @cryptothief, that the highs usually are seen at the end of the year, is however quite simple for me: It's because most of the years since 2011 were part of a longer-term bull market - so it's obvious that the price at the end will be higher that at the beginning.
Only in 2014 and 2011 the highest prices were recorded in the first half (2011 near mid-year), and probably 2018 will be another one that escapes the general trend. In 2011, the immature and extremely volatile market may have been a major factor, contributing to a short but hefty bullish cycle followed by an even shorter bear market (June-November). 2014 was, until now, the only full year inside a bearish cycle. I guess 2018 will be very similar to 2014, although I don't rule out a bull run at the end of the year this time if the bearish cycle turns out to be shorter.
I also agree somewhat with @Kprawn with his observations regarding the reasons that in most years there is a significant dip near the end/beginning of the year (influence of Christmas and Western/Chinese new year).
The main reason for your observation, @cryptothief, that the highs usually are seen at the end of the year, is however quite simple for me: It's because most of the years since 2011 were part of a longer-term bull market - so it's obvious that the price at the end will be higher that at the beginning.
Only in 2014 and 2011 the highest prices were recorded in the first half (2011 near mid-year), and probably 2018 will be another one that escapes the general trend. In 2011, the immature and extremely volatile market may have been a major factor, contributing to a short but hefty bullish cycle followed by an even shorter bear market (June-November). 2014 was, until now, the only full year inside a bearish cycle. I guess 2018 will be very similar to 2014, although I don't rule out a bull run at the end of the year this time if the bearish cycle turns out to be shorter.
I also agree somewhat with @Kprawn with his observations regarding the reasons that in most years there is a significant dip near the end/beginning of the year (influence of Christmas and Western/Chinese new year).
All this is due to bitcoin volatility because the unstable market movement of bitcoin is always as a result of it total dependent on the force of demand and supply because bitcoin like every other commodity in the market requires high demands in other to rise in price and with the previous movement in price I believe what we are witnessing right now is still part of the market. Bitcoin rise to it highest at the end of 2017 to $20,000 but falls at the early days of the year 2018 which I see as normal occurrence.
Hello everybody. I believe that guessing the price of any asset, especially Bitcoin, is not a thankful business. The author of the article has done some work analyzing the price of Bitcoin, - there really is a certain pattern. But I do not want to guess - I've already invested half the money. But I would still like to buy Bitcoin for $ 6,000, so I left a pending order to buy. I also analyzed the price chart. My analysis is such - the minimum price this year is 6 000 $ - a maximum of 20 000 $ for one Bitcoin. But, again, it looks like fortune telling fortune-teller. You need to know firmly what you want, where to buy and where to sell and then you will never lose.
I was just looking through the historical prices of Bitcoin on bitcoin.com (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price) and noticed that the high points and low points seem to be (give or take a bit) fairly predictable. The highest price of Bitcoin each year always seems to be towards the end of the year, normally December; and the lowest price always seems to be at the beginning of the year, normally January. Obviously throughout the year there is plenty of market movement up and down, and some periods may over or under run slightly, but as a general pattern, it's an eye opener.
2010 -
Low - No real action on the price until July, when it jumped from virtually nothing to about $0.09. Therefore lowest price January to June.
High - Hit $0.35 in November
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 300%
2011 -
Low - Started the year at around $0.30
High - Hit $29 in June
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 10,000%
2012 -
Low - Dropped to around $4 in February
High - Rose to just under $14 by December
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point around 250%
2013 -
Low - Carried on from December at around $13 in January
High - Huge rise up to over $1100 by November
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 8,500%
2014 -
Low - Low point right at the end of the year, when it dropped to just over $300
High - Hit it's high right at the beginning of the year in January at around $950 before immediately dropping like a stone
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 200% (pretty irrelevant this one, as the high was in January and the low in December, so would show a loss unless trading throughout the year)
2015 -
Low - Didn't drop too much lower than December 2014, and was at around $190 in January
High - Crept up to $460 by December
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 150%
2016 -
Low - Standard January drop to about $370
High - Steadily moved up, roller coaster style, to almost $1000 in December
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 150%
2017 -
Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%
-----------------------------------------------------------
None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.
Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
i think this topic is often discussed in many previous discussion, and my answer will always be the same. We have to remember that no one knows hpw to predict and give the exact prediction about the price of bitcoin. Because the price of bitcoin is very unstable and involved by many factors, so we can not give the prediction about how the price of bitcoin. 2010 -
Low - No real action on the price until July, when it jumped from virtually nothing to about $0.09. Therefore lowest price January to June.
High - Hit $0.35 in November
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 300%
2011 -
Low - Started the year at around $0.30
High - Hit $29 in June
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 10,000%
2012 -
Low - Dropped to around $4 in February
High - Rose to just under $14 by December
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point around 250%
2013 -
Low - Carried on from December at around $13 in January
High - Huge rise up to over $1100 by November
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 8,500%
2014 -
Low - Low point right at the end of the year, when it dropped to just over $300
High - Hit it's high right at the beginning of the year in January at around $950 before immediately dropping like a stone
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 200% (pretty irrelevant this one, as the high was in January and the low in December, so would show a loss unless trading throughout the year)
2015 -
Low - Didn't drop too much lower than December 2014, and was at around $190 in January
High - Crept up to $460 by December
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 150%
2016 -
Low - Standard January drop to about $370
High - Steadily moved up, roller coaster style, to almost $1000 in December
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 150%
2017 -
Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...
Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%
-----------------------------------------------------------
None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.
Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
We are very easy to talk about the past. That is what happened, the important is the future, the future will look like no one would predict.
From the above information on the growth and fall of the price of bitcoin for each year, one can only see the almost general tendency to increase the price of bitcoin by the end of the year and the fall, and a sharp one, at the beginning of next year. So, in principle, you can hope for the growth of bitcoin prices from the third quarter. In addition, bitcoin has repeatedly experienced very sharp falls in value and it can also be concluded that the more the price will be bitcoin, the greater the amplitude of its price fluctuations.
I do not believe anyone can predict the value of bitcoin. If they really anticipate bitcoin value they have become wealthy with their speculation. Its value depends on many investors around the world. Not dominated by anyone
Bitcoin value is unpredictable and nobody can predict on bitcoin future even the fortune teller cannot predict on what happen tomorrow when it down or up. I think the value of bitcoin is depends on the investors around the world .
No sure predictions for bitcoin, whales sometimes determine the fate of bitcoin and no wise investors or traders will ever trust any predictions for bitcoin..... Being vigilant and not too greedy is a requirement for bitcoin investors
It's quite easy to show that Bitcoin is not predictable. All you need to do is look at predictions from the past and see how incredibly way off they were.
There's nothing I see to suggest that predictions are any more accurate than random guessing.
There's nothing I see to suggest that predictions are any more accurate than random guessing.
It is a very difficult thing to predict, and whoever comes close certainly has big winnings. There are many factors involved, FUD, FOMO, regulations, manipulation etc. I think currently the large number of ICO's also limits Bitcoin's earnings because many people prefer to invest in a token that is in the beginning to try to catch the "new Bitcoin" and make a big profit.
I do not believe anyone can predict the value of bitcoin. If they really anticipate bitcoin value they have become wealthy with their speculation. Its value depends on many investors around the world. Not dominated by anyone
Bitcoin value is unpredictable and nobody can predict on bitcoin future even the fortune teller cannot predict on what happen tomorrow when it down or up. I think the value of bitcoin is depends on the investors around the world . 
Its highs and its lows are predictable? Yes you are right there, if you are talking about making predictions but not precise ones, its really difficult for people to make clear predictions about the price, even experts are having a hard time to make these predictions as accurate as possible, but if you can make predictions that will really be exact and precise then you are a very smart person.
Bitcoin price prediction is very difficult right now as mostly in current scenario it is total manipulation.
i dont think it is possible to predict crypto. the market is very unpredictable. we cannot just base on past infromations and predict the future of btc.
sell bitcoins and invest in other crypto projects like Socratus very good project
I read that some people make predicting that bitcoin will go down at $5500-$6000 and I think we can make our predicting too like them and I hope that the price won't goes down too deep. and the high of the price that could reach is unlimited because when bitcoin price increase, we don't know how much it will increase and if we take a look in the last year, the price is increased in more than $19000 before it's down too deep until now.
If bitcoin is below 100 usd again, no one cares about it anymore, hoping that the price will go up to new heights this year, maybe 50 000 USD
You should anticipate that, not what is the maximum, you need to find yourself the knowledge to predict everything.
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