Topic: bitcoin in a supercycle? - page 2. (Read 271 times)

based on the range of mining costs(electric price variant) across the planet. bitcoin only ever bubbled into over valued peaks in 2011
the 2013 rise was due to ASIC causing a big jump in mining costs compared to GPU and since then the peaks and bottoms stayed within their cycle/period range of mining cost differences top to bottom
2017-19 was again a ATH and subsequent correction within the range of underlying costs, as was the 2021-23

other coins however such as ethereum are way way way above their inherent range and being held at a inflated bubble due to bitcoins arbitrage opportunities and it hasnt just burst(but should have) when switching to PoS. its slowly leaking air and changing from a 1:12 peg to a 1:30 peg, so its 'pop'/burst is slow flattening, so in short bitcoin traders are manipulating the 'intrinsic' value of ethereum and breaking known economic logic expected of ethereum over the last 4 years
so we might see institutional investors start to break bitcoins economic logic and intrinsic values, though the insights of the ETF inception has not broke bitcoins economic logic...   ...   yet


many keep thinking US" "trump".. but all 60+ countries involved in the bank of international settlements have a opportunity as of january 2025 to start jumping into crypto. but as already stated in other post, it would only impact or manipulate the market price if they trade on public CEX's.. however even the ETF's have tried hard to only trade via OTC and darkpool swaps which shows institutional investors with big collateral/capital try to avoid shooting slef in the foot, avoid causing a bubble that breaks the normal economic range potential of bitcoins inherent value-premium range

So the next one should be green.
Obviously.
Patience will lead us through it.
 

A full market cycle has bear and bull year but history shows some great news that in each cycle, there are more green years than red years. People feel like there are two bearish years in each cycle but there is one red year that is followed by a next green year. This year is considered as bearish but in fact it is green, you can see the chart. However, in this humble green year, fud exists and some fiasco happens so it makes people think it is more like a bearish year.

https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

I think it makes more sense to define a cycle as the duo of bull and bear market. Meaning it starts by price going up slowly and eventually price goin way above the intrinsic value (aka in a bubble) followed by the bubble bursting which is the indication of the start of the bear market where price keeps going down until it goes way below the intrinsic value (aka a reverse bubble) which will then burst and enter a new cycle.

Will it be a supercycle if US starts getting into bitcoin more than before? I think it will be but in the sense that we will see increase volatility with bigger bubbles and more catastrophic crashes because there is a high chance they'll manipulate the hell out of the bitcoin market to make as big a profit as they can so that they can cover a tiny portion of their ever increasing budget deficit...

alot of people using actual data are suggesting a ~$350k top ATH this coming year then recovery below $100k(but above $50k) in 2026-7
as the natural inherent cycle pattern
however lets not give trump any merit if bitcoin breaks out of its inherent pattern and just goes bull$hit crazy above its natural expected high

its actually the world banks collectively that as of january 2025 have to start auditing/accounting and publishing their crypto holdings and being allowed 2-5% of their reserves to be in volatile crypto like bitcoin.. so lets not make it a trump thing when its actually been a international bank decision made over the last 3 years(research: BIS) to start being able to hold 2-5% of reserves as crypto as of january 2025

so yes this can push bitcoin higher, but only if the countries treasurers use public CEX for their coin purchases and not darkpools/OTC's

bitcoins inherent natural economics shouldnt see bitcoins lows going back down to the $20k level ever again unless there is a major bug causing hashrate and trust loss of bitcoins economics. but at the top end we may not see $400k+ unless the international banks highly speculate and overly pump on the public exchanges.. which i dont see them wanting to shoot self in the foot pushing the price too high too fast

I think Bitcoin will likely continue its natural bull and bear cycles, as market sentiment and external factors like regulations and adoption still play major roles. The idea of a supercycle sounds exciting, but expecting Bitcoin to avoid downturns entirely feels overly optimistic. Even with growing interest and potential policy changes, corrections are part of any market.

Who said bitcoin will never dip? There is no currency or volitile asset in the world that just keeps going up in price without any moment of pull backs and corrections, even if the USA declare in early 2025 declare that Bitcoin will be used as reserve currency for the country, the price of bitcoin will definitely jump on that news, people will become more confident in the future growth of bitcoin and want to invest heavily on it, but this does not mean that the price will never experience any form of decline anymore from time to time, remember that it's not only the US that is holding or will be holding bitcoin, there are several bodies and entities holding bitcoins too, and any of this bodies and or entities can decide to sell their position at any time, which may cause the price of bitcoin to go down a bit, depending on how large the position being sold is.

So at the moment, I don't believe in anything known as a supercycle, bitcoin, as well as the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem have just two seasons, and that's the bull and bear seasons.

While searching for the definition of a "Bitcoin supercycle", I tried to read this article that I saw, and here's a portion of it: LINK
I'll try to explain some of it (coming from not an expert one )
1. Increased liquidity in the market - I can't say if there's an increase of liquidity in the market, but if there's anybody who can share some data here then that would be helpful, but if there's an increase in liquidity, that might be a factor towards a potential supercycle.
2. Favorable market and geopolitical conditions - I guess there's no need to explain this one. Trump winning, which is a pro-crypto, him putting pro-crypto officials as well, and the market seems favorable as well.
3. Strong performance in TradFi Markets - we've seen many traditional finance markets that are coming into crypto. There are many financial institutions coming into the crypto space already.
4. Rising demand for BTC and crypto - Well, I guess we are seeing a rising demand with the institutions coming.

Whatever the case is, we might see a Bitcoin supercycle in the future, or maybe we might see it in the next 2-3 years.

Gold is a reserve currency, and the value goes up and down. Long-term, it looks as if the value goes up, but that's just inflation on fiat currency which means gold more or less keeps it's value while the dollar and euro are forever dropping. Bitcoin is still increasing in value faster than inflation, and I expect that to continue for a while. Which, in my opinion, means Bitcoin's value is still going up, and it will probably take a few decades for it to reach an equilibrium like gold has had for centuries. After that, I still expect ups and downs, but in the long-run, Bitcoin will more or less reach a stable value where it's price will follow inflation. Kinda like gold now. But at a much higher price than it currently has.

How would institutions be able to grab all the coins, though?
Don't see it happening as for now.
And I don't see them at the helm of the cycles anytime soon.

Bitcoin reserve doesn't make people can't sell their coins, so it's still not yet possible having Bitcoin reserve will ends Bitcoin 4 years cycle. It's only happen when the institutions can own almost all Bitcoin, this will make them able to do whatever they like, they can manipulate the cycle. In Bitcoin 4 years cycle, the bull run start after halving and bear season start after bull run. If they won most of coins, they can swap the cycle or create their own cycle in order to trick the public.

In short - there should be stability at place and agreement upon many bullish factors that would result in such an outcome.
Otherwise, it may just be a usual change of cycles and that would be it, without something groundbreaking.

Just like the name implies; bear season. A bear season is a period when there is a continuous drop in the price of bitcoin either within a short period of time or for a longer period of time depending on the factor that will prompt it's action. If Donald Trump makes bitcoin a strategic reserve currency, there will certainly be a bear season at some point but it won't last for so long again as it normally does in some bear season. This is because the value of bitcoin will increase and some investors who are hodlers will be looking for any DIP opportunity for them to buy and add to their portfolio so definitely, if the market is experiencing a downtrend for sometime, it will still return back again because their will be active investors who are ready to monitor the activities in the market just like normal traders does.

The bear season is not gone but it will not be rational as it used to be but rather it will be irregular.

About bitcoin supercycle, this is what Gracy Chen said in one of the articles on Cointelegraph which I read and I agree to. She said that for bitcoin Supercycle to happen, there should be ease with which traditional finance and the crypto market connect, and not just in the U.S but in many countries around the world. This connection will make increase mainstream adoption. Additional, something else I also agree on which she mentioned is that bitcoin should receive the same recognition and treatment just as stocks and gold from governments around the world. People should be able to buy, hold, and trade bitcoin without any limits, that what it implies. If these conditions are right then we are in to see a bitcoin Supercycle happen.

bitcoin naturally goes through cycles two being the bull and the bear cycles. these two cycles can't be any different: bull cycle are associated with price growth and influx of investors while bear cycle are associated with falling prices and overall loss of confidence from investors. due to bitcoin's volatility it is always expected for bear cycle to happen consequently after a bull cycle.

for every bull cycle, someone is always expecting for the bear cycle to be stopped or to not happen anymore but that is only wishful thinking. bear cycle can't be stopped by anyone or anything but due to many countries taking interest in bitcoin recently particularly the usa is it now appropriate to think that bitcoin is in a supercycle which means it will most likely not follow the past cycles and continue to show high prices for the next few years?

many are expecting that when trump orders bitcoin to be a reserve currency, bitcoin's bear cycles will stop.

i personally do not believe this to happen at the very least we will see some changes of course like maybe the bear cycle would not show very low prices but to think that the price of bitcoin will never dip over the next few years is too optimistic in my opinion. what about you? do you also believe in this supercycle that bitcoin might be in? or do you think bitcoin will just continue to follow its previous cycles?