Bitcoin in RALLY mode - page 6. | Bitcointalksearch.org

hugolp

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Quote from: S3052 on October 12, 2010, 12:06:54 AM

I agree this is too longterm.
what about DJI below 10,000 ( close or intraday ) before 12/31/2010.
100BTC

This is a complete different bet. I can see this happening, specially depending on the Fed actions.

If QE2 happens in the November FOMC meeting as almost everybody is expecting and it is big enough, the DOW will remain over 10.000, but if the Fed leaves QE2 for later or it is percieved as too small then it could happen.

Big parts of the economy are now driven by monetary policy rather than market forces. Its sad.

Babylon

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Quote from: S3052 on October 12, 2010, 12:06:54 AM

I agree this is too longterm.
what about DJI below 10,000 ( close or intraday ) before 12/31/2010.
100BTC

Not a bet I'd personally take. I expect it to drop that low by the end of the year. I expect the elections to be a bit of a kick in the teeth to the DOW

S3052

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I agree this is too longterm.
what about DJI below 10,000 ( close or intraday ) before 12/31/2010.
100BTC

Babylon

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I trust several people on here well enough to escrow for a short period, Not for a 6 year period without some more solid contact info. Not because I have even a hint of a suspicion they'd steal my coins, but because I am concerned they might lose internet, or go to jail for being an Anarchist, or have their computers melt down, or whatever in that time.

MoonShadow

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Quote from: hugolp on October 11, 2010, 02:15:57 AM

Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 10:48:07 AM

Hugolp and Babylon,
reading the above, I'd like to bet exclusively with you. How can we set up this in a stable way?

As Babylon said we need someone to hold the bitcoins or at least a part of them until the bet can be resolved.

What you need is an escrow, which is something that no one has yet done for Bitcoin, because it would require that at least the escrow manager be willing to expose his own real identity. I've been considering setting up an escrow service for Bitcoin, but I'm still not convinced that there is enough of a demand to justify the loss of my autonomy.

S3052

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We need someone who can be trusted and willing to set it up.

WHO wants to do it?

The one who will do it gets a couple of BTC as incentive, ok.?

hugolp

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Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 10:48:07 AM

Hugolp and Babylon,
reading the above, I'd like to bet exclusively with you. How can we set up this in a stable way?

As Babylon said we need someone to hold the bitcoins or at least a part of them until the bet can be resolved.

Babylon

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Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 10:48:07 AM

Hugolp and Babylon,
reading the above, I'd like to bet exclusively with you. How can we set up this in a stable way?

As a straight, even odds bet?

I figure we need a trusted party to serve as an escrow service. Either that or some sort of personal relationship such as personal info on one another. I don't want to tie up more than 100 bitcoins for that long personally. (I know, that's only about 9 dollars right now, I expect it to be more by then though, and I am actively trading back and forth to make money at the moment)

If it is set up at a bitcoin futures market and we are the first ones in I think we'd have even odds as well, although I might be wrong about that.

S3052

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Hugolp and Babylon,
reading the above, I'd like to bet exclusively with you. How can we set up this in a stable way?

TTBit

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Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 09:44:42 AM

My idea was DJI trades below 1000 points sometime between now and Dec 31, 2016. Whenever it trades below that level, also intraday, it is a win.
The only question that remains for me is who can I ensure that the BTCs are still in this account by that time?

Separately, we can also have short term bets

DJI
below 10,000 by Nov 30, 2010
below 9,000 by Jul 31, 2011
above 11,260 by Dec 31, 2010
above 14,200 by Dec 31, 2011

Well, your trust would shift from him to bitcoinsportsbook, whatever that is worth. Coins would have to be put up. Problem I see is BSB is a public site and anyone could bet along with you and it would change the odds.

[off topic]
Maybe a feature of BSB should be to have private wagers. You create a wager and send a password to friend to put up his coins. BSB could declare a winner (for a small fee) or just hold the coins and let bettors settle (for a smaller fee). Or, not even hold coins and just show proof of wager and settlement status.
[/off topic]

S3052

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My idea was DJI trades below 1000 points sometime between now and Dec 31, 2016. Whenever it trades below that level, also intraday, it is a win.
The only question that remains for me is who can I ensure that the BTCs are still in this account by that time?

Separately, we can also have short term bets

DJI
below 10,000 by Nov 30, 2010
below 9,000 by Jul 31, 2011
above 11,260 by Dec 31, 2010
above 14,200 by Dec 31, 2011

TTBit

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Quote from: nelisky on October 10, 2010, 09:01:58 AM

Quote from: hugolp on October 10, 2010, 03:01:48 AM

Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 02:00:27 AM

Im my opinion you will be massively wrong.
The DOW will also crash in nominal terms.
Below 1000 points between 2014-2016

Lets bet. 1000 bitcoins that the DOW does not touch 1000 points before 2016. Deal?

kiba what you are working on could come handy now.

You can also ask TTBit to get that on bitcoinsportsbook

Yes. Please let me know of the details, and bitcoinsportsbook will create the wager. If it is something as simple as DJIA close on a certain date, BSB will also make a market if needed.

BSB will be happy to create and make monthly or yearly wagers for spot close of gold/silver/stocks, etc.

nelisky

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Quote from: hugolp on October 10, 2010, 03:01:48 AM

Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 02:00:27 AM

Im my opinion you will be massively wrong.
The DOW will also crash in nominal terms.
Below 1000 points between 2014-2016

Lets bet. 1000 bitcoins that the DOW does not touch 1000 points before 2016. Deal?

kiba what you are working on could come handy now.

You can also ask TTBit to get that on bitcoinsportsbook

S3052

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[quote auth ;)or=Bimmerhead link=topic=1388.msg16404#msg16404 date=1286715992]

Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 06:18:50 AM

great, i will win more if more people add bets on DJI below 1000.

i accept more and be 100% willing to wait a couple of years

I agree with your prognosis S3052, but I hope you've got those bitcoins in the bank now at 6 cents in case they skyrocket to $10 and the Dow only hits 1,005!
[/quote]

Yes, indeed!

Bimmerhead

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Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 06:18:50 AM

great, i will win more if more people add bets on DJI below 1000.

i accept more and be 100% willing to wait a couple of years

I agree with your prognosis S3052, but I hope you've got those bitcoins in the bank now at 6 cents in case they skyrocket to $10 and the Dow only hits 1,005!

S3052

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great, i will win more if more people add bets on DJI below 1000.

i accept more and be 100% willing to wait a couple of years

Babylon

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Quote from: hugolp on October 10, 2010, 03:01:48 AM

Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 02:00:27 AM

Im my opinion you will be massively wrong.
The DOW will also crash in nominal terms.
Below 1000 points between 2014-2016

Lets bet. 1000 bitcoins that the DOW does not touch 1000 points before 2016. Deal?

kiba what you are working on could come handy now.

Yes it would. I want a piece of that action (on the DOW will not get that low side) but it is a long term bet and I don't know anyone on the forum well enough to want to make a bet that I wont be able to settle for 6 years.

S3052

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Deal

hugolp

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Radix-The Decentralized Finance Protocol

Quote from: S3052 on October 10, 2010, 02:00:27 AM

Im my opinion you will be massively wrong.
The DOW will also crash in nominal terms.
Below 1000 points between 2014-2016

Lets bet. 1000 bitcoins that the DOW does not touch 1000 points before 2016. Deal?

kiba what you are working on could come handy now.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Im my opinion you will be massively wrong.
The DOW will also crash in nominal terms.
Below 1000 points between 2014-2016

Topic: Bitcoin in RALLY mode - page 6. (Read 22359 times)