Bitcoin in the Event of a Global Economic Crisis

gabmen

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Quote from: exstasie on April 01, 2019, 05:08:14 PM

Quote from: mindrust on April 01, 2019, 03:27:42 PM

They may try to get out of this by creating another WW. It is another option which is always on the table.

I've heard people alluding to this before but I'm skeptical. How would that work exactly? Do you mean it would provide an opportunity to establish a new financial order like Bretton Woods in 1944?

Lol. Another world war would demolish everything that was built after ww2, including bitcoin. You may think that it'll be the same as the previous ww's but i believe the scale of the next one, considering where technology took us in nuclearization, it's not only bitcoin that'll be gone but most of us as well.

exstasie

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Quote from: mindrust on April 01, 2019, 03:27:42 PM

They may try to get out of this by creating another WW. It is another option which is always on the table.

I've heard people alluding to this before but I'm skeptical. How would that work exactly? Do you mean it would provide an opportunity to establish a new financial order like Bretton Woods in 1944?

Bagaji

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I strongly believe that if there will be another global economic meltdown Bitcoin will survive it, although it will feel the negative impact of the meltdown since it is the individual and cooperate organization that holds the crypto currency assets.

mindrust

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on March 31, 2019, 12:13:36 PM

Quote from: mindrust on March 31, 2019, 08:22:58 AM

The Dollar is going to make one last moon shot before it collapses. Just like supernova. Bitcoin will survive no matter what happens but it is not going to moon right away.

The FED prints USD constantly but people still refuse to spend. Actually, most people don't even get that printed money so they can spend. The newly printed money goes to the uber rich people instead.

This is going to blow up so bad but like I said, despite all the money the FED has printed, just because those elites refuse to distribute the money, the dollar liquidity will dry out and it'll moon... and go zero.

there's definitely some logic to what you're saying. but what's the timeline on that? will it coincide with a global economic crisis, or come before/after? i think that'll make a big difference for bitcoin's performance.

looking at the DXY (dollar index), the current chart quite reminds me of the late 90s. it definitely doesn't look ready for a crash yet. the stock market doesn't look ready yet either.

It could be the next year or 5 years later from now. It is a ticking bomb. They are doing anything to delay it, but they are running out of options.

The current monetary system we know actually collapsed completely in 2008. (Some say it was 2001) We are playing the overtime because of FED and its QE's.

They may try to get out of this by creating another WW. It is another option which is always on the table.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on March 30, 2019, 03:42:07 AM

it'll survive no matter what, but how well the price fares is a matter of time.

Agree. The technology is revolutionary and is robust enough such that it will survive a financial crisis--and remember, it was created right at the beginning of one. I've long suspected that bitcoin was a reaction to the housing/banking crisis and that Satoshi is not a single person, but I have no proof of that. It certainly was one hell of a coincidence that a bankless form of money was rolled out right when we almost had all of the banks collapse.

My real concern is not a financial disaster, but one that knocks out either the internet or our power grid. Obviously bitcoin would become extinct very quickly if either of those things occurred. But as long as we have electricity and internet, bitcoin is going to be there.

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Quote from: pinoyden on March 31, 2019, 11:45:28 PM

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Crypto pundits believe it's a replacement for fiat and soon to conquer the world financial system.

You mean / they mean the crypto ? Well cryptos are not meant for fiat repalcement . same goes to other payment methods . cryptos primary built is only to provide an alternative espcially for the people that does not want to exploit their privacy .

Well, we cannot completely overrule it because its speculation, as they say, out of every rumor lies the truth, some speculated values for bitcoin has come and gone, speculation is just for us to prepare for the known and the unknown and like you mentioned, crypto may not replace fiat because they all depend on each other, one cannot get crypto without changing fiat to it, crypto will just make it easy for us to be able to handle our fiat currency anonymously.

This cryptocurrency will only be still relevant in case of global crisis because it will assist in protecting the identity of those who will still not be affected by this crisis and help them also secure their funds.

guoyu78

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In the event of global financial crisis, bitcoin participation might be in 2 ways too, it could lead to many people who has stored bitcoin as store of value to start selling off their assets little by little to meet up with their daily needs but the market will still be much in operation because not many people will sell off their assets before the crisis ends.

In the other way round, there will also be many people going into trading to make money, some will look at it this way, if they sell off all their assets to meet up with their personal needs, what they will bank on after the assets finishes. This will push them into also trying to multiply whatever holding they have.

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Quote from: BlackPanda on April 01, 2019, 12:49:51 AM

Investors left and in the end they no longer trusted the government. A bad situation, of course, a lot of hunger, poverty and destruction. I am sad and I hope there won't be anything like this happening. If it is linked, then maybe crypto can be a solution, with a clear investment value so that everyone who was previously restricted can eventually invest freely in the whole world.

Investors never really trusted the government there to begin with. All they did was allow themselves to enjoy certain perks in return for their money, and as you can see, it didn't work out at all. I wonder how many of these investors were forced to leave everything behind out of fear. It's such a horrible situation, but one they have themselves to blame for.

I doubt crypto offers any sort of solution, especially when it comes to the poorest of the poorest. Smart money has various other ways to hedge the risk their governments exposes them to, where crypto represents just a fraction of that. I want to see much higher local volumes in order to see crypto play a more significant role over there.

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I do expect BTC to become a 'safe haven' during times of economic uncertainty. In fact we've seen it happen to an extent already in troubled economies such as Venezuela.
Before it becomes a viable option for most people though, we need: a) easy transfer between fiat and crypto, and b) greater BTC market stability.
I do expect this trend to continue and to grow as crypto markets mature.

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Quote from: pinoyden on March 31, 2019, 11:45:28 PM

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Crypto pundits believe it's a replacement for fiat and soon to conquer the world financial system.

You mean / they mean the crypto ? Well cryptos are not meant for fiat repalcement . same goes to other payment methods . cryptos primary built is only to provide an alternative espcially for the people that does not want to exploit their privacy .

in some ways this can be considered a "replacement" though. for example when you were previously paying for something with fiat (credit card,...) now you are paying with bitcoin. so you have replaced them with bitcoin.

what bitcoin is not, is a tool to "kill" all other payment methods and replace them "completely".

olumyd

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Quote

...economic chaos can result from a variety of things that are systemic and not just from a problem.

Indeed economic problems are systematic and despite the origin or size have a characteristic of rippling down to other systems and causing huge problems. As for Venezuela, the effect of the economic downturn has included a rise in emigration which in turn will affect the host country, as such, it will impact the economy of the host country as they were not prepared for it, which in turn will affect the residents as well. As everything is connected, what seems to start as a local problem becomes a global problem if unchecked.

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Quote from: BlackPanda on April 01, 2019, 12:49:51 AM

Quote from: olumyd on March 31, 2019, 08:14:33 AM

I strongly believe the situation in Venezuela is a test tube evidence of what might happen in the event of a wide scale economic depression, but what's unclear at this point is how other cryptocurrencies will fare at that point. While a success story for bitcoin might reflect on crypto as a whole, we may have a new set of problems, new investment vehicles and the risk of being exposed to more fraudulent crypto-related activities, which will in turn ripple back to bitcoin.

This is part of a process, but remember that economic chaos can result from a variety of things that are systemic and not just from a problem. As happened in Venezuela, the country is experiencing a tremendous economic crisis and the wrong problem is on the side of the government. Investors left and in the end they no longer trusted the government. A bad situation, of course, a lot of hunger, poverty and destruction. I am sad and I hope there won't be anything like this happening. If it is linked, then maybe crypto can be a solution, with a clear investment value so that everyone who was previously restricted can eventually invest freely in the whole world.

it is always from a "problem".
sometimes that problem is small and doesn't involve that many aspects of the country/world so the effects of it are small and local but some other times it is too big and involves a lot of aspects and the corruption which usually leads to that exists in economical infrastructure that collapse during the crisis which lead to all the things that follow.

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Quote from: olumyd on March 31, 2019, 08:14:33 AM

I strongly believe the situation in Venezuela is a test tube evidence of what might happen in the event of a wide scale economic depression, but what's unclear at this point is how other cryptocurrencies will fare at that point. While a success story for bitcoin might reflect on crypto as a whole, we may have a new set of problems, new investment vehicles and the risk of being exposed to more fraudulent crypto-related activities, which will in turn ripple back to bitcoin.

This is part of a process, but remember that economic chaos can result from a variety of things that are systemic and not just from a problem. As happened in Venezuela, the country is experiencing a tremendous economic crisis and the wrong problem is on the side of the government. Investors left and in the end they no longer trusted the government. A bad situation, of course, a lot of hunger, poverty and destruction. I am sad and I hope there won't be anything like this happening. If it is linked, then maybe crypto can be a solution, with a clear investment value so that everyone who was previously restricted can eventually invest freely in the whole world.

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Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Crypto pundits believe it's a replacement for fiat and soon to conquer the world financial system.

You mean / they mean the crypto ? Well cryptos are not meant for fiat repalcement . same goes to other payment methods . cryptos primary built is only to provide an alternative espcially for the people that does not want to exploit their privacy .

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

What will happen in the event of another global financial crisis (GFC), as it is speculated that a GFC is meant to cycle in about a decade. According to Bitmex, the next wave of a GFC should truly test Bitcoin as a store of value, and I agree.
Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

Speculated ? Speculation means theres no guarntee or assurance that it will happen therfor lets not take this seriously but if that could really happen i believe bitcoin can survive and wont be directly affected because bitcoins are independent from cash .

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Quote from: sheenshane on March 31, 2019, 06:36:34 PM

Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin will have at least a 5% effect in the Global Economic Crisis. As I have read, there will be a big event where the crisis will go back to the global economy. The U.S is already investigating the trillion worth lending that would cause a big crisis in the world. Bitcoin will be one of the best choices for the tycoons to move their assets besides gold. However, gold is the best option during these kinds of scenarios. Gold is the best investment or asset and Bitcoin is an alternative only. But we will see it soon.

Bitcoin is really helps to reduce the demonetization problem so all the peoples are consider as a gold. Most of the developed countries trying to stop the Bitcoin adoption because this have occupy more revenue in future. Nowadays stablecoins are occupy the good marketcap because some peoples are not expecting the future profit but mostly human beings are always hungry in more money so more than 25% effect in the Global economy crisis.

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Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin will have at least a 5% effect in the Global Economic Crisis. As I have read, there will be a big event where the crisis will go back to the global economy. The U.S is already investigating the trillion worth lending that would cause a big crisis in the world. Bitcoin will be one of the best choices for the tycoons to move their assets besides gold. However, gold is the best option during these kinds of scenarios. Gold is the best investment or asset and Bitcoin is an alternative only. But we will see it soon.

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Not an economist though when it comes to economic crisis but asking if bitcoin will survive with the next crisis, ofcourse it will. Taking as an example for Venezuela, I've read some stories that people there are fleeing from the country itself.

While others who are in bitcoin/alt mining are hiding themselves but it's good to see them that they were able to survive, base on that interview. I can't remember the full interview, I saw it on FB.

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Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

Really? That is your question. If Bitcoin will survive? Bitcoin will be an alternative after the crisis. Right now bitcoin is just an experiment. After the crisis it will be an alternative. Different groups of people will lean to Bitcoin while fighting others for political power.

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The article blames the banks for the previous crisis and says that the risks are now in the area of asset management, but essentially it was the problem the previous time as well. Yeah, banks gave away credits too easily. But what really made the thing way worse where bonds of bonds of bonds! The bubble grew because of the new levels of 'bets' not on the real estate, but on other bets on the real estate.

Quote from: talkbitcoin on March 30, 2019, 04:28:19 AM

i still don't understand why some people insist on saying or believing that bitcoin was created to "replace" fiat! bitcoin is the alternative not the replacement.

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

since bitcoin is not yet corrupted by the government or the banks and they are responsible for the economic crisis, there is no argument about bitcoin's survival! it is obvious it will survive.

the only question that is worth discussing is whether bitcoin price is going to shoot up to millions because of the crisis or will it not be impacted?

Well, I think that in the long run it's a replacement, because it's a way better alternative. And that's the reason why I'd answer positively to the question you find important. Bitcoin is not like fiat, and fiat can be abandoned after it collapses. The demand for uncontrolled cryptos will obviously grow in that case, and the value will grow, even though it would not make sense to measure it in relation to USD anymore. We'd see that the value has grown from what we'll be able to afford for 1 bitcoin.

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Quote from: mindrust on March 31, 2019, 08:22:58 AM

The Dollar is going to make one last moon shot before it collapses. Just like supernova. Bitcoin will survive no matter what happens but it is not going to moon right away.

The FED prints USD constantly but people still refuse to spend. Actually, most people don't even get that printed money so they can spend. The newly printed money goes to the uber rich people instead.

This is going to blow up so bad but like I said, despite all the money the FED has printed, just because those elites refuse to distribute the money, the dollar liquidity will dry out and it'll moon... and go zero.

there's definitely some logic to what you're saying. but what's the timeline on that? will it coincide with a global economic crisis, or come before/after? i think that'll make a big difference for bitcoin's performance.

looking at the DXY (dollar index), the current chart quite reminds me of the late 90s. it definitely doesn't look ready for a crash yet. the stock market doesn't look ready yet either.

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