Topic: Bitcoin Investor Psychology - page 4. (Read 721 times)

some still have the mindset that it needs large whale to have large demand.
when infact it can also be minnow sellers.
imagine the average buyer is only investing $340 of their paycheque
EG instead of offering 0.01btc for $340($34,000/btc), sellers offer 0.0099 $340($34,343.34/btc).
this means little changes with minnow orders. not whales.. can affect the price alot

minnow play causes
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whales play causes
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unless there is pretty much a vertical line in the price. its probably not a institution whale pump or dumping

institutions dont play minnow games of buying up small 0.01 allotments per customer they recruit. they instead buy/sell large allotments. and then separately then offer small allotments to their customers by breaking up the large allotment privately (offmarket).
these minnow customers of institutions dont play the market daily. they hoard in custodial accounts or they withdraw to private key. they dont affect the day to day price.

and whale institutions havnt really been doing regular daily pump&dumps (vertical lines)
most price movements is actually caused by minnow sellers selling small parts of coins instead of whole hoard

No, it looks like bitcoin never hit $22K in 2017 because as far as I remember it only went up to $20k. The high demand for bitcoin has pushed its price to reach ATH in 2017. After 2017, bitcoin took 3 years after halving to reach ATH again where in December 2020 bitcoin price broke through ATH 2017 and reached $40K in price. I think you know how bitcoin's record price rises in 2021, so I don't need to continue.

Institutional investors play an important role in the increasing demand for bitcoin in the market. The increasing adoption has prompted many new people to invest and try their luck even though they don't have much knowledge. Some of them manage to earn commensurate returns, while others may lose due to poor investment management.

Those people seem afraid to buy now at the current price because they think the price can go down without notice. So when the price starts to increase, they will prepare to buy lower than the current price, which will not always happen because we know that after the price increase, it could still increase without stopping and makes them too late to buy at a low price. We can not blame them because they can still use that way to buy bitcoin while they will miss the good time to buy bitcoin.

looking at the last 6 months of the cheapest mining cost and the most expensive mining cost on the planet... and then adding in the market price


the market price is actually right at the cheap mining cost. the last time it even came this close to touching the bottom of mining cost, was after the 2018 correction down to $4k but even then the price happily stayed in the value window of that time

meaning right now bitcoin is cheap for its value, compared to other acquisition cost methods that vary depending on regions.

for instance  if you add in the euro-us cost. you will find that for the last 3 weeks even euro-us can buy cheaper then mine




pretty much all euope and japan and US can literally buy bitcoin cheaper then mining it. (bar some very lucky west asia/east slavic regions)

That's right, this is not the philosophy of the average investor in Bitcoin, but in any risky investment that for most means the highest possible profit in the shortest possible time. One would think that after so much time people will learn something, but unfortunately I have to say that the vast majority of people behave like sheep and always remain the same sheep. To put it in numbers, let's say that about 80% (or more) of investors have a sheep mentality, and about 20% have a wolf mentality - no wonder it ends up the same - wolves drive sheep into a corner and a bloodbath ensues, rare sheep avoid sharp teeth.

Luckily for wolves every new generation of crypto investors behaves mostly the same, the game of predators and prey has not changed for millions of years.

You need to understand that bitcoin has periods when it grows well. And during this period, you can’t buy bitcoin in any case, because, as history teaches us, after growth comes a fall. But when bitcoin falls very strongly in price, and everyone says that this bubble will burst soon, then it is worth buying and waiting for a new growth.

I'm sure everyone has a plan for investing or trading assets. but looking at the current market, buying bitcoin for the long term is certainly risky. especially for those beginners who easily panic seeing market movements.
the best way at this time is probably traders or short-term investors who buy when the correction and sell when the pump.
Be aware, not everyone has the same plan for storing their bitcoins for a long time.

Many investor start investing in 2020-2021. I think they didn’t now BSC journey. When bitcoin price was around $400-600$. Now bitcoin price huge increase but noway bitcoin price more dip than 2021.People play short term investment and i think they are greedy and the are panic seller.Now good time to buy bitcoin and hold long time to investment. I hope bitcoin price will be rise again.

Greed is human nature and people nowadays are afraid to take the risks but want to gain a huge profit which is far from reality. I think fear is one of the reasons why people are investing when the price is quite high. They fear the dip instead of taking it as an opportunity to buy. This is the mindset of those who apply the wrong strategy which is to buy high and sell low. A wise investor should know how to take advantage of every market situation.

Some people keep buying every dip since I saw the stablecoins price were decrease, even though most of people are panic and already sell his coins.

To people who bought Bitcoin on $69K or ATH, it's still not the high prices since the real Bitcoin value are higher than that. This reminds me back when my friends bought Bitcoin at $25K (ATH at that time) many people keep saying he's dumb since he's buy Bitcoin with high price in "that time". After Bitcoin reach $50K and never went back to $25K until now, they missed the moment to buy cheap Bitcoin when people thought it's still expensive.

It not that people are willing to Bitcoin at all time high price, they are not buying now that the price of the Bitcoin is cheap because the market seem to be at the bearish season and a lot of precaution is needed before buying the dip because the market next momentum this Q1 is still not certain.
Meanwhile, the best thing to do now buy little portion of BTC and wait till the market next trend is clear.

what you actually find is not everyone is/was willing

take a look at mining costs

in west asia/eastern slavic regions with electric costs at 4cent. they had had mining cost of 2021:20k 2022:$30k
in west euro/north america regions with electric costs at 12cent. they had had mining cost of 2021:30k 2022:$40k
..
in germany/japan regions with electric costs at 37cent. they had had mining cost of 2021:65k 2022:$75k

what you find is when the price went to $60k plus. hardly anyone was buying. but japan/germany still found it cheaper to buy than to mine. until even they reached their break even point and stopped buying. hense why the price didnt go to 80-100k. at just below the $70k mark it was 0% buy 100% sell sentiment

the same is on the bottom end. because if the price dropped below $30k now, no one can mine for profit. and everyone would be buying. meaning it would have a 0% sell and 100% buy sentiment. stopping it from going below $30k this year

i can tell you this, no russian/chinese bitcoiners were buying bitcoin at $60k+
i can tell you this, no japanese bitcoiners were mining bitcoin at $30k-

in short
if everyone on the planet can buy coin cheaper than mine it (price is dirt cheap). then the buy pressure is there
if everyone on the planet can mine coin cheaper than buy it (price is expensive). then the sell pressure is there

This is how actually works most investor's minds. A major part of traders and investors like to accumulate Bitcoin during green candle. Of course, it's a psychological issue, and the mindset up is like this. Investors think since Bitcoin dumping it would dump more. So they just wait for it and do not place the order to buy hence we notice no buying pressure. On the other hand, holders become panic during this dump session and place orders to sell Bitcoin, and that's how to price dump more.

This isn’t just how things normally go for bitcoin but this is how things normally are for all markets. I am constantly getting calls from clients when markets are doing very well or even at all time highs wanting to invest but when markets tank all they want to do is sell. People are too overcome with emotions and often let it guide their investing.

A bitcoiner don't have to be afraid of price fluctuations in cryptocurrency sphere, it's constant that cryptocurrency don't have a stagnant price, so converting the available coins to stable coins is good, but is not  to the extent that investors will be skeptical to purchase or ignore market because of their expectations towards bitcoin, i think that's wrong perceptions for investors, even though the price escalate to 20k some would like it to get close to 15k before making any turn or reciprocate to market, i noticed that no condition of bitcoin downfall always been appreciated to anyone who is into cryptocurrency, everyone is interested to get full advantages of market.

It is sad to know the fact that there are still many people who do not fully understand how Bitcoin works. Therefore they took the wrong step,
by buying Bitcoin during a bullish trend. Even though the benefits obtained will be much greater if they dare to buy Bitcoin during a bearish trend
like today. But most people are too afraid the price of Bitcoin will drop even lower after they buy Bitcoin. In fact, if we study Bitcoin properly,
we will know that no matter how deep the Bitcoin price goes down, it will always recover and go higher. That's why for people who are experienced
in the crypto world or people who study Bitcoin properly, will never be afraid to buy Bitcoin in a bearish trend, because they believe Bitcoin will
definitely go up again.

Its just how it is and as Bitcoin goes higher and higher, the more it hurts the investors especially those who bought at the peak.
When they see Bitcoin at its peak, many people are thinking that it will go even higher but that doesn't case always. Our brain thinks that it will go even higher but its the complete opposite but hey, who knows where is the peak right . That is why people are still buying even though they know that it is high already because they don't know where is the peak and they are gambling that it will go even higher.

Well, investing is like a game where there are winners and there are losers. Those who bought at the peak are the losers and those patient enough and know when to wait an opportunity like this are the winners. Now that it is confirmed that we are in a bear market already, now is the time to be greedy and buy when there is blood on the market. Accumulate more coins. There is a lower risk and a higher reward right now than buying at the peak where the risk is very high and the reward is very low. Anyway, many are expecting that Bitcoin will reach its previous ATH of $69,000 soon right? .

That's just the way the brain works. Whenever something drops in value or losses momentum, people will create negative associations with that. It it were good, or as good as they say, it wouldn't be losing value like this. That's the way people think. When you add negative press coverage and constant reminders how Bitcoin has lost 40-50% in recent months on top of that, what we are seeing now is the result of that.

The opposite happens when Bitcoin starts rising sharply. Everyone starts talking about it. That creates increased interest and people start buying again. You will then be bombarded with news and headlines saying that Bitcoin will reach $100k, 200k, and some crypto influencer suggests he will eat his dick on Twitter if it doesn't go up to $1 million a coin. The fear is now gone and it's back to buy whatever you can get your hands on.

Rinse and repeat.

Common mistake of every new investors is they're always on panic buying mode when the price is on top without knowing there's always a correction wherein reason most of them always ended losses. Well that's the sad fact that until now still happening because of greediness. Maybe they're not comfortable buying at the dip reason they still want to buy when there's a progress already.  I mean even their history when it comes such strategy isn't good.

This is to say that you understand that there are people out there that can really predict the market and say this will be the bottom of the market so hold on till the market gets to that level  Investors will naturally buy dips as it occurs because we don't know for sure where the bottom is so if he has been buying and the market dips some more and you still have the means, you buy some more. Even people like Michael Saylor that have been in the space forever bought Bitcoin at a higher price than today's $36+ per BTC