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Topic: Bitcoin is becoming less and less adopted... (Read 6202 times)

full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
KUPO!
September 08, 2013, 05:33:00 PM
#55
Bitcoin is a waste of time.

It is only good for turning $ into more $.

Nobody is really interested in Bitcoins, everybody is only interested in making more $ through Bitcoin.

There are plenty of people that will disagree with this. At the very least bitcoin will change the way we send money worldwide. Bitcoin > Western Union

there's probably more who do agree with it though
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1121
September 08, 2013, 05:16:00 PM
#54

Nice link-quote bot you have there, is it markov chain based? Doesn't seem to include any real logical reasoning though.

Here's a link to chew on - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift

It will come in handy later.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
September 08, 2013, 05:11:01 PM
#53
In your example why would the 200k number go up each day but the 100k number stay flat?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_growth#Population

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses

PS: I think that's because

male + female leads to male + female + child

but

bitcoiner + bitcoiner doesn't lead to 3 bitcoiners

Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1003
September 08, 2013, 04:48:10 PM
#52
Eh. I don't entirely agree there. It's true that many people see Bitcoin as a get-rich-scheme. But I'm sure that there are many people (such as myself) who are interested in BTC itself. It's a really interesting and novel currency.

Yes, you're not alone there; Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology, and much more than just a currency to speculate on.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
September 08, 2013, 04:45:32 PM
#51
nobody is really interested in bitcoins, everybody is only interested in trying to double his money through bitcoin Sad

Eh. I don't entirely agree there. It's true that many people see Bitcoin as a get-rich-scheme. But I'm sure that there are many people (such as myself) who are interested in BTC itself. It's a really interesting and novel currency.
sr. member
Activity: 410
Merit: 250
September 08, 2013, 04:15:19 PM
#50
Percentage-wise (the only relevant measure), Bitcoiners are growing much faster than global population.

True bitcoiners follow the advice of Mr. Nakamoto and use a new address each time, so it's hard to assess real numbers. But let's assume that each day roughly 100'000 new users join us (110k is the extremum on http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses). Today the world population has been increased by 200'000 persons (350k born, 150k died). Tomorrow 200k will become 201k, then 202k and so on. Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher. Looks like a Zeno's paradox, doesn't it? Wink
Using your example, where each day 50% the number of new people in the world equals new bitcoin adopters, if that growth stayed steady then as the population approaches infinity the percentage of bitcoin users of the population would approach 50%.  50% is bigger than the percentage today.  Even using your ridiculous numbers and assumptions as a thought experiment I'm still not really sure what your getting at and the title to your thread still sounds wrong.

Tomorrow only 49% of the population will become bitcoiners. Then 48%, 47%, ... The title sounds correct to me.
Why would that happen?  Where are the numbers to show the rate of growth day over day is higher for total population than bitcoin adoption?  In your example why would the 200k number go up each day but the 100k number stay flat?  You haven't shown this to be the likely case by any measure.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
September 08, 2013, 06:38:31 AM
#49
Percentage-wise (the only relevant measure), Bitcoiners are growing much faster than global population.

True bitcoiners follow the advice of Mr. Nakamoto and use a new address each time, so it's hard to assess real numbers. But let's assume that each day roughly 100'000 new users join us (110k is the extremum on http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses). Today the world population has been increased by 200'000 persons (350k born, 150k died). Tomorrow 200k will become 201k, then 202k and so on. Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher. Looks like a Zeno's paradox, doesn't it? Wink
Using your example, where each day 50% the number of new people in the world equals new bitcoin adopters, if that growth stayed steady then as the population approaches infinity the percentage of bitcoin users of the population would approach 50%.  50% is bigger than the percentage today.  Even using your ridiculous numbers and assumptions as a thought experiment I'm still not really sure what your getting at and the title to your thread still sounds wrong.

Tomorrow only 49% of the population will become bitcoiners. Then 48%, 47%, ... The title sounds correct to me.
sr. member
Activity: 410
Merit: 250
September 08, 2013, 05:43:33 AM
#48
Percentage-wise (the only relevant measure), Bitcoiners are growing much faster than global population.

True bitcoiners follow the advice of Mr. Nakamoto and use a new address each time, so it's hard to assess real numbers. But let's assume that each day roughly 100'000 new users join us (110k is the extremum on http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses). Today the world population has been increased by 200'000 persons (350k born, 150k died). Tomorrow 200k will become 201k, then 202k and so on. Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher. Looks like a Zeno's paradox, doesn't it? Wink
Using your example, where each day 50% the number of new people in the world equals new bitcoin adopters, if that growth stayed steady then as the population approaches infinity the percentage of bitcoin users of the population would approach 50%.  50% is bigger than the percentage today.  Even using your ridiculous numbers and assumptions as a thought experiment I'm still not really sure what your getting at and the title to your thread still sounds wrong.
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
September 08, 2013, 01:59:35 AM
#47

Bitcoin is an unnecessary toy and interesting diversion at this point.  Some people playing with it are green and some red, but it's simply not competitive in most arenas with mainstream systems for a variety of reasons.  If/when that equation changes, I've always predicted that it will have little to do with Bitcoin and everything to do with mainstream financial systems.  The latter fracturing of course.  This is entirely possible, and (IMHO) pretty much inevitable on a long enough time horizon.  At that point Bitcoin will simply explode in popularity and value.  Or something like it will depending on what is out there at the time and robust enough to overcome the strains and stresses.

sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
September 08, 2013, 01:46:48 AM
#46
nobody is really interested in bitcoins, everybody is only interested in trying to double his money through bitcoin Sad
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1003
September 08, 2013, 01:43:52 AM
#45
The obvious solution is to kill those who refuse to adopt bitcoins, duh.

(sarcasm disclaimer: please don't kill anyone.)

Pfft, lets just kill everyone and then all our problems would be solved Tongue
full member
Activity: 120
Merit: 100
September 07, 2013, 07:44:44 PM
#44
The obvious solution is to kill those who refuse to adopt bitcoins, duh.

(sarcasm disclaimer: please don't kill anyone.)
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
Let the chips fall where they may.
September 07, 2013, 06:19:27 PM
#43

If you select the log scale you will see the trend-line shows the number of Bitcoin users doubling every year. I am fairly certain the world population is growing at slower rate. Looks like there was a large peak in the spring. They'll be back.

Where could I see these numbers?

On the left-hand side of that chart you linked to. Selecting the log scale simply converts exponential growth into a straight line so that you can clearly see the rate of growth with a trend-line.

legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
September 07, 2013, 12:37:57 PM
#42
I strongly dissagree, its getting mainstream more and more from my point of view.

That's true, more and more, but rate of the growth can't outpace growth of population. Today we all like Alice in Wonderland have to run to stay on the same place.
legendary
Activity: 1354
Merit: 1020
I was diagnosed with brain parasite
September 07, 2013, 12:22:01 PM
#41
I strongly dissagree, its getting mainstream more and more from my point of view.
member
Activity: 122
Merit: 10
September 07, 2013, 12:14:29 PM
#40
Well, the ratio of world population to bitcoiners will always be shrinking, because Africa has the most growth. Internet access there is a luxury in most places, so using world population-to Bitcoiners ratio is rather...off. I would use the number of retailers using Bitcoin, which is growing every day...
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
September 07, 2013, 01:36:58 AM
#39
2009 - 100 Bitcoin users vs 6.83B global population.  1 in 68,300,000 persons is a Bitcoin user.
2013 - 64,000 Bitcoin users vs 7.17B global population. 1 in 112,000 persons is a Bitcoin user.
Looks like growth to me.

3rd of Jan, 2009 - only 1 bitcoiner (Satoshi himself).
2013 - 64000 bitcoiners
----------------
6400000% growth?

What about this:
Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher.
?
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
September 06, 2013, 06:37:36 PM
#38
Percentage-wise (the only relevant measure), Bitcoiners are growing much faster than global population.

+1
member
Activity: 115
Merit: 10
September 06, 2013, 06:15:25 PM
#37
Bitcoin is the only asset that has a gravitational pull to 0

Hey I heard a quote that say, "Fiat isn't backed by gold anymore, it's just backed by bullets." So true, but again fiat isn't backed by anything other than brute force.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
September 06, 2013, 04:33:53 PM
#36

True bitcoiners follow the advice of Mr. Nakamoto and use a new address each time, so it's hard to assess real numbers. But let's assume that each day roughly 100'000 new users join us (110k is the extremum on http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses). Today the world population has been increased by 200'000 persons (350k born, 150k died). Tomorrow 200k will become 201k, then 202k and so on. Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher. Looks like a Zeno's paradox, doesn't it? Wink

If you select the log scale you will see the trend-line shows the number of Bitcoin users doubling every year. I am fairly certain the world population is growing at slower rate. Looks like there was a large peak in the spring. They'll be back.

This.

The OP whole argument is that the world population is growing faster.  Only one problem ... it isn't.  World population growth is on the order of ~1.2% per year and the growth rate has been declining for the past 70 years.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#growthrate

The OP also seems to number of unique addresses used DAILY (not total # of unique addresses) is the best metric for Bitcoin users.  Ok lets say for the sake of the argument it is.
http://blockchain.info/en/charts/n-unique-addresses?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Jan 09 ~100 unique addresses per day
Aug 13 ~64,000 unique addresses per day
That is an annual growth rate of ~630%.

Over the same period of time the global population changed from:
July 09 - 6.83B
Aug 13 - 7.17B
That is an annual growth rate of ~1.5% (lets say 2%)

Last time I checked 630% annual growth is greater than 2% annual growth.

I don't think "number of unique addresses used DAILY" indicates that the OP thinks it does but lets assume 1 address used daily = 1 user.  That would assume on average each user makes 1 blockchain tx everyday which is probably at least 1 or 2 magnitudes too high.  I make a lot of blockchain tx and it averages to a a lot less than 1 per day.  Still for the sake of the argument lets assume 1 unique address per day = 1 active Bitcoin user.

2009 - 100 Bitcoin users vs 6.83B global population.  1 in 68,300,000 persons is a Bitcoin user.
2013 - 64,000 Bitcoin users vs 7.17B global population. 1 in 112,000 persons is a Bitcoin user.
Looks like growth to me.
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