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Topic: Bitcoin is forming a bubble and that is an indisputable fact (Read 1179 times)

full member
Activity: 266
Merit: 103
The amount of institutional investors in bitcoin is still extremely small compared to, for example, any of the dow stocks. While the idea of giving away bitcoin to the hands of wall street billionaires may not sound appealing, it is the best way to stabilize the price. When something like 50% of bitcoins are owned by institutional investors, the price will definitely be significantly more stable.

Retail investors will always buy into manias and push assets up and down like crazy. They have weaker hands. Especially bitcoin investors. As long as people are out there trying to use bitcoin to get rich quick, it will remain too volatile to stabilize and grow as a currency.
The question is: do we really need institutional money to flow into bitcoin?
Of course, it would be great, but Bitcoin if just fine as being alternative asset - used mostly by people, not businesses.
Bitcoin is like stock - available for anyone, without need of contacting any middlemen to purchase it.
Price of bitcoin will be more stable over time, more people using BTC = less volatility.

The answer is yes in my opinion. I don't see how else the price will stabilize. The nature of bitcoin investors is not going to change. Bitcoin is in a self-feeding cycle where volatility attracts get-rich-quick investors, and get-rich-quick investors cause volatility. This all makes it less useful as a currency, and therefore it harms bitcoin's intrinsic value.

You say the price of bitcoin will be more stable over time, but why do you say this? It has been volatile over the past 8 years since it was created, and it has not become any less volatile over time. Why would it stabilize now?
full member
Activity: 266
Merit: 103
Here we go again on bubble speculation. Putting some graphs which is usually occurs and making some speculation about dumping so that many will panic and sell their coin to prevent pumping. I'm sicked on seeing gameplay like this. :/

Don't be got sick by those speculators because they're hopeless buyers who always create confusions to people's mind showing negative publicity against bitcoin. They are just doing it for themselves just to get cheaper btc price, which is not going to be successful tactics nowadays. People now were more vigilant on trusting those forum talks that had caused to have rumors against bitcoin system economy.

This is a really bad and poorly thought out comment. You make assumptions based on nothing. I would not buy bitcoin today if the price were 1/10 what it is now because bitcoin itself is extremely volatile and speculative. You claim that I am trying to manipulate investors so that I can get in at a cheaper price, yet this claim is false and based on absolutely nothing.

Furthermore, I am not just speculating or guessing here. Read the post, try to actually understand it. Read my responses to people's rebuttals. The facts strongly support my argument. In fact, it is almost undeniable.

I have absolutely nothing to gain financially from this. I am just being realistic.
sr. member
Activity: 951
Merit: 250
Here we go again on bubble speculation. Putting some graphs which is usually occurs and making some speculation about dumping so that many will panic and sell their coin to prevent pumping. I'm sicked on seeing gameplay like this. :/

Don't be got sick by those speculators because they're hopeless buyers who always create confusions to people's mind showing negative publicity against bitcoin. They are just doing it for themselves just to get cheaper btc price, which is not going to be successful tactics nowadays. People now were more vigilant on trusting those forum talks that had caused to have rumors against bitcoin system economy.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 541
How the hell did you figure this to be a bubble mate? in Bitcoin you have everything pre-calculated.

And most of the uncertainties are easy to overcome and ignore as plausible theories.

You can predict almost everything, such as the numbers of coins being mined every day/week/month.

You have a limited total supply, you have a decentralized monetary network functioning and depended online.

Changing the protocols is one of the hardest feats for anyone to execute, %95 of miners are not in bed with

Each other to be afraid of a conspiracy. No one is forcing you to use Bitcoin and you shouldn't be completely

Occupied by Bitcoin, you need to focus on other things as well.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
The amount of institutional investors in bitcoin is still extremely small compared to, for example, any of the dow stocks. While the idea of giving away bitcoin to the hands of wall street billionaires may not sound appealing, it is the best way to stabilize the price. When something like 50% of bitcoins are owned by institutional investors, the price will definitely be significantly more stable.

Retail investors will always buy into manias and push assets up and down like crazy. They have weaker hands. Especially bitcoin investors. As long as people are out there trying to use bitcoin to get rich quick, it will remain too volatile to stabilize and grow as a currency.
The question is: do we really need institutional money to flow into bitcoin?
Of course, it would be great, but Bitcoin if just fine as being alternative asset - used mostly by people, not businesses.
Bitcoin is like stock - available for anyone, without need of contacting any middlemen to purchase it.
Price of bitcoin will be more stable over time, more people using BTC = less volatility.


hero member
Activity: 837
Merit: 500
Here we go again on bubble speculation. Putting some graphs which is usually occurs and making some speculation about dumping so that many will panic and sell their coin to prevent pumping. I'm sicked on seeing gameplay like this. :/
legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 1170
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
A commodity does not need to have a value based on real time demand. It is usual to have higher value just due to hype. This is what we are having with bitcoin prices right now. Basically traders do speculate future events and pump the prices. Other than that, they will not be having any viable solution for how to trade.
We cannot say that the price of one commodity is being pumped blindly but traders foresee future demand and based on that they pump the prices. (when the pump is happening blindly, that must be the right example of forming pure bubble). Now come with the case of bitcoins, we can be sure that any trader can foresee its future and for that they can go for pumping.

When bitcoin has definite bright future, we could never call bubble is being formed. Fundamentally bitcoin can have any value because it is going to get used as currency. So, people may buy it for whatever price and can spend for same prices. I believe bitcoin now itself can have any big value, hence we can never assume it is forming bubble.
full member
Activity: 266
Merit: 103
the smart money came in a long time ago and has been fixating its foothold in bitcoin for a long time.
and i am not really a big fan of hedge funds and instituotional investors coming in bitcoin, but according to an article i read on coindesk some time ago it seems like there are at least 6 of them currently claiming that they are trading bitcoin.
additionally there are currently a couple of those retirement plans that are offering bitcoin as an option.

The amount of institutional investors in bitcoin is still extremely small compared to, for example, any of the dow stocks. While the idea of giving away bitcoin to the hands of wall street billionaires may not sound appealing, it is the best way to stabilize the price. When something like 50% of bitcoins are owned by institutional investors, the price will definitely be significantly more stable.

Retail investors will always buy into manias and push assets up and down like crazy. They have weaker hands. Especially bitcoin investors. As long as people are out there trying to use bitcoin to get rich quick, it will remain too volatile to stabilize and grow as a currency.
hero member
Activity: 1456
Merit: 579
HODLing is an art, not just a word...
i am not denying that this was big rise and you can even call it a bubble. i am mostly trying to point out that this is not a huge bubble as many like to say and it has already blown up and price corrected most part of it.

The reason I disagree with this is because even though new money is coming in, it is not institutional money. It is not smart money, it is more people who want to get rich quick. When hedge funds and other institutional investors start buying into bitcoin, then it can see sustained long term growth. Right now though, it is still just a rollercoaster of bubbles and manias.
the smart money came in a long time ago and has been fixating its foothold in bitcoin for a long time.
and i am not really a big fan of hedge funds and instituotional investors coming in bitcoin, but according to an article i read on coindesk some time ago it seems like there are at least 6 of them currently claiming that they are trading bitcoin.
additionally there are currently a couple of those retirement plans that are offering bitcoin as an option.

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For bitcoin to really become useful as a currency, it needs to stabilize. It can't be rising like crazy the way we are seeing today.
i completely agree.

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Ironically, the more it is adopted, the more volatile it becomes, and therefore the less valuable it becomes (it would be more valuable if it were stable). I wrote a post discussing this conundrum if you are interested: http://www.demoinvestor.com/articles/00000001

it is a process that is going to take a lot of time. i wouldn't really call it less valuable.
it starts slow (2009 to late 2010) then it speeds up because people usually find out about these things all of a sudden (2011 up to today) and then when it grows big enough it will again slow down (2020 maybe?).
someone said something interesting about APPL shares so i went ahead and took a screenshot of it - the red one is APPL (see the resemblance)

full member
Activity: 266
Merit: 103
You guys are claiming that it's not a bubble but not replying to any of the points I made. How can you say bitcoin is not forming a bubble when bitcoin investors have historically consistently overbought bitcoin to very large degrees in buying manias and pushed the price into bubble territory? We see bubbles in bitcoin on a regular basis, and we haven't seen one since 2013.

People who are posting here and simply denying it and dismissing me as a short are completely delusional and they are the reason that bubbles form - foolish investors jumping on board with buying manias.

For the record, I have no short or long position in bitcoin right now.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
Bazinga!
the bubble formed then it busted and now it is all over. you are late Smiley

the bubble is when price goes high too fast and then when you think it is over it still continues upward. and the burst is then it comes down which it did. and if we were still in the bubble the price could never go back on track of rising up again and crossing $2500!
this is now a legit rise.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1016
Not a bubble yet. We saw awesome gains followed by corrections. Some bigger than others.
Altcoins are in a bubble. A massive one. But Bitcoin is not. But this may change in the future. A lot of this also depends what is going to happen the next few weeks due to SegWit activation in august. We are in exciting times at the moment.
legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 1214
Vave.com - Crypto Casino
As stated by most users all around its completely not a bubble. It's the growth that happening in a gradual manner and the corrective factors​ at times make the price grow bigger as well falling low. Hope the ongoing price increase is the correction in the positive side.
legendary
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
this is not a bubble, only delusional bear can think that, they just want to short toacquire cheap coin

the last dump was just a correction, a big one but a correction, the value increased very slowly, and always returned to the same level after the dump

this is a indisputable signal of the value skyrocketing, and not a sign of any bubble by how the thing look, a bubble for me is only when the value return to the same point as before the pump started, pretty much what happened in 2013
full member
Activity: 266
Merit: 103
Even if we consider that valuations are high, the question is when (if ever) will this bubble burst?
I don't consider a 20% drop in price as a bubble bursting. This bull run looks like it could continue for a long time.

I agree that it hasn't peaked yet, but bitcoin investors have historically consistently overbought and pushed bitcoin into a bubble pattern on good news. But you are right that it is very difficult to determine when a bubble will burst. I have been predicting roughly $4,000-$5,000.

https://twitter.com/DemoInvestor/status/867491235296161792
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1026
★Nitrogensports.eu★
Even if we consider that valuations are high, the question is when (if ever) will this bubble burst?
I don't consider a 20% drop in price as a bubble bursting. This bull run looks like it could continue for a long time.
hero member
Activity: 980
Merit: 506
A commodity does not need to have a value based on real time demand. It is usual to have higher value just due to hype. This is what we are having with bitcoin prices right now. Basically traders do speculate future events and pump the prices. Other than that, they will not be having any viable solution for how to trade.
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1024
Okay so maybe there is actually a little room for debate but at least I got your attention! That being said, I don't see how anybody could possibly argue that Bitcoin is not forming a bubble.

Financial bubbles form when there is a large disparity between an asset's market price and intrinsic value. It is easy to measure this with a stock by looking at fundamental stats like revenue and pe/ps ratios, but it is harder with Bitcoin. That being said, we can still identify the factors that affect Bitcoin's value and see how they have moved compared to bitcoin's price.

What factors affect the intrinsic value of Bitcoin?
1. Number of major vendors accepting Bitcoin payments.
2. Legality of Bitcoin across the world
3. Ease of use to buy, store, and spend Bitcoin

Bitcoin's price has tripled in less than 3 months. Have these factors that affect bitcoin's price changed accordingly? No, they have not. As is the case with all bubbles, investors have fallen into a buying frenzy fueled by media hype and a snowball effect which has pushed the price up far faster than the value has risen. The larger this gap grows, the more likely it breaks and crashes. It's like stretching a rubber band. There will be a tipping point when it comes crashing back down.

All that being said, I am bullish on Bitcoin long term. However, it does have some hurdles to overcome before it can really be taken seriously.

Most of the people that I know are investing in a hedge fund style.  Bitcoin is the Walmart of their hedge fund.  From Bitcoin, it is all smart money, because even if a newbie gets a few coins and blows it away in the wind, it has been released from the chain and will eventually make it into the pockets of those investors that know what they are doing.
 
full member
Activity: 266
Merit: 103
Everyone is running around looking for either a) Bitcoin's killer app, or b) the next big cryptocurrency/ICO/dapp/whatever

Funny thing is, though:

Bitcoin IS THE KILLER APP. It's the answer staring everyone in the face.

The debt-fueled fiat banking system is the problem. Bitcoin itself is the solution.

This could be true but it is unrelated to what I wrote in the original post.
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1016
Everyone is running around looking for either a) Bitcoin's killer app, or b) the next big cryptocurrency/ICO/dapp/whatever

Funny thing is, though:

Bitcoin IS THE KILLER APP. It's the answer staring everyone in the face.

The debt-fueled fiat banking system is the problem. Bitcoin itself is the solution.


How long before people wake up? Maybe they won't.

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