I do not own any bitcoin, but I knew about bitcoin 6 years ago, before most people even heard about it. Except I didn't buy it then, I was wrong about that prediction. So I am trying to see if I can make some money now.
But looking into the future, I am still not convinced about bitcoin. Before anyone get all defensive, I would like to know WHY you think it will go up. Because I would like to make some money too.
In my view, there are several problems:
1. Bitcoin value is all based on sentiment. Most people say it is under valued now, but that is only a reflection of how you feel about it. And
this is fine, because in comparison most stock prices are irrational as well (especially these days). people make lots of money buying over valued stocks. But the problem I see is that the fear-of-missing-out sentiment has passed. Almost everyone know about bitcoin now. And they also know Bitcoin has dropped 70% of the value since its highest peak? Once someone get burned by something, the others will be a lot more cautious. And when people become rational about a investment that is built on sentiment, that is a huge problem for future growth. there are many examples of puffed up stocks crashing down to earth, and never to recover its value. The ones that can recover and soar in the long run all have great business fundamental to support its value, in other words "making money".
2. Bitcoin is no longer unique. Regardless of what people say, bitcoin is not like gold. Sure, the amount of bitcoin is finite, but it is not unique compared to other cryptocurrency. The only thing special about it, is the name itself. And there are tons of new cryptocurrencies now, and people can create infinitely more types, IF it is profitable. Correct me if I am wrong, what is the fundamental difference between a "bitcoin" and a "ripple" other than the value? nothing at all.
3. technology risks. There is always a possibility a more advanced cryptocurrency will emerge and completely outshine bitcoin. I believe there are already some cryptocurrency that transact faster than bitcoin? Not sure of the detail but I have read it somewhere. And when it happens again and again bitcoin will be wiped out. Remember we used to use CDs? tapes? camera films? Bitcoin was created almost a decade ago, that is a lifetime ago in the technology world.
other issues: practicality, and safety. It doesn't actually make paying for something easier, and some argue this is safer than traditional banking, well just look at the news of people lost coins or got hacked.
I do think it is possible for bitcoin to go up (not skyrocket though), but it seems the headwind is getting really strong. So why do you think you should hold on? Instead of just saying "it will go to the moon", "it will change the world", please provide reason.
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