Topic: Bitcoin is the chart of the day on the Economist (Read 3626 times)

WHAT THE HELL? What is AU 100?

To me, demand seems unnaturally low.  It is unnatural that more people don't want bitcoin.  The demand is the reality though.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoin%22%2C%20%22sell%20bitcoin%22%2C%20fiat%20currency&cmpt=q

i like this one

I guess it depends on what we want to mean with "bubble". My impression is that right now, considering the large amount of hoarding that went on in the BTC world in the past two years, the price is destined to be unstable. IIRC the share of never-used bitcoins in the network was estimated at 78% sometime last year, probably lower now, but still large. Some of that share is no doubt lost forever, i.e. wallets that were lost during OS reinstalls etc. back when BTC was worthless, but some is going to come back to the market at some point, especially if it was originally mined and then hoarded by savvy early adopters thinking in terms of the long run. We can't know anything about how this will pan out, and it is bound to cause fluctuations.

Also, with all the different opinions and uncertainty surrounding "usability" there's going to be ups and downs, i.e. if even a single new real-world company should announce that they're accepting BTC there would be a spike not because people are after the goods and services provided by the company, but because it would be received as a sign of credibility of BTC (hence becoming progressively "too big to jail").

So yes, IMHO there's going to be volatility, and short-term bubbles. As for BTC being a bubble in the stronger sense, i.e. destined to amount to nothing in the long term, I'm really not convinced at the current time. There's arguments in favor of both sides and my impression is that it's too early to say. I don't think we're going to be able to understand this in the next 6 months - 1 year, it's going to take longer than that.

Ecomomists doubt everything. Their job is making no mistakes, therefore they're only talkers of wealth, not the holders.

I would agree with that.  The chart juxtaposing the search engine interest with the value against the USD is interesting, though.

I wonder what a regression exploring the connection between various search terms and the BTC value against traditional currencies would show.

slightly better...

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoins%22%2C%20%22sell%20bitcoins%22&cmpt=q

don't want to be rude, but that's one hell of an incompetent reporter...

Oh you are right. Cypres could have and impact the last days Anyway. With my strategy (not buy) I can only win: If the cource falls down, I am glad, that I did not invest. I the cource will never fall Bitcoin  will establish so I am glad as well.

Well, quite a few things that can justify an increase in value have happened. Reddit&co, traditional gambling sites and Cyprus being the major ones IMO. Still, I do agree that the value may be rising too fast now, so personally I would welcome a dip to enable me to transfer more money into bitcoin at good rates. [Disclaimer: I have savings in Europe]

I believe the price rise is due to the increasing popularity of gambling services.  Don't underestimate the power of the hopelessly addicted members of our society as they buy more and more bitcoins to chase their losses.  We are witnessing the effects of a growing pool of internet gamblers buying into bitcoin to satisfy their addiction.   As long as the pool is growing, the price will keep rising.

Oh yeah, the same thing the analysts told when people talked about a housing bubble. And last year?
Jan 15th: 1BTC = 10,50€
Feb 16th: 1BTC = 16€  ->  +50% growth within one month. Did get Bitcoins more attraktive? Can you buy now from Amazon? In bars? No!)
5March: 1BTC = 25€ ->  + 50% growth withing a half month. Again, Bitcoins did not get substantiall more valuable)
20Mrch: 1BTC = 50€-> +100% within another half month. Again, no big change in termes of attractivness to Bitcoin occured).

400% in 2 months but nothing happened to justify this change? I'm really a big fan of Bitcoin. But in my opinion it would be madness to buy now (a big amount for investment).

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What about it?  Gold bubbled in response to the 2008 crisis.  It is merely retracing a bit.  I don't understand what your last question means.
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1. when you have selling in one thing, people rotate (usually into something else that they feel is secure (US$ or Tbills etc).   If there is a lot of overlap in gold believers and BTC believers it would make sense that some of the money from the selling of gold has rotated here.
2.  You need btc to buy mining machines.   and you need them by friday.

Not scary. Each time this happens the snowball grows along the way. Many people think the true value of a btc in USD is either >1000 or 0. How do you expect it to go from zero to 1000? A straight line?

That is really not telling anything
as a person who knows how to buy a bitcoin sure knows how to sell it but not visa versa

But there is one interesting thing from your chart...
Look when was the last time "sell bitcoin" went up? june 2011
that's scary no??

Even better, we should always provide some meaningful comparisons:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoin%22,%20%22sell%20bitcoin%22

Coinbase, coinlab, reddit, namecheap, etc.


No, I will not ignore that because it has influenced my trading decisions.


What about it?  Gold bubbled in response to the 2008 crisis.  It is merely retracing a bit.  I don't understand what your last question means.

Can you think of ANY reason why there may have been an unnatural amount of demand for BTC in the last month?   Ignore the world crisis because not enough people know about BTC.   What about gold dropping?   seems like btc and gold interest a similar group of people.   what about the gold rush machines that you need BTC to buy?

This is actually quite bullish.   Remember when the economist put on the front cover that oil was going to $5 back when it was in the teens???