Bitcoin likely won't recover until 2025 - page 2.

btc78

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Quote from: uneng on February 21, 2022, 02:21:46 PM

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Huobi co-founder Du Jun told CNBC on Sunday that bitcoin prices are often influenced by a technological change in the cryptocurrency's network, called "halving".

Halving is a key feature of bitcoin, and refers to a cutting in half of the amount of cryptocurrency that so-called miners receive as a reward for validating transactions.

The last halvings occurred in 2016 and 2020, and crypto analysts expect the next one to take place in 2024.

Huobi co-founder predicts this cycle is going to repeat itself, following the last bear market pattern, which started right after the ATH of 2017 and lasted long painful years... Is it too pessimistic to think this way or is the halving the real game changer factor which drives market's prices, as Du Jun says?

He also mentions another factors such pandemics and geopolitical issues can influence bitcoin's price, but it's clear the halving factor was highlighted as the most important and influent one among all.

Bitcoin is shaping up to enter a bear market and likely won't recover until 2025, co-founder of Huobi crypto exchange says

they can predict whatever they wanted but the truth is? market like this is unpredictable and things may change in speed of light .

we have seen those many times before so why not will happen soon?

The thing is we must be ready always in something bad to happen , but of course be positive most of the times for this matter.

retreat

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everyone is free to make their own predictions. if he thinks bitcoin will return to ATH in 2025 then I think bitcoin will make a new ATH in 2022. we see that until this march there were already 2 countries (Russia and Ukraine) and 1 more city (Lugano) that recognized Bitcoin as a currency. I don't predict the price following the halving history because it's already different.

batang_bitcoin

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Quote from: Rimueng on March 03, 2022, 01:06:10 PM

The market is unpredictable and expects Bitcoin to enter a bear market and likely to recover until 2025, I still hesitate to rely on the four-year cycle model because going forward the pattern will not be the same in the past four years cycle. I'm sure that we won't have a bear market this year. I think the bitcoin price still has the potential to continue the bullish trend, but I realize that a big correction is likely to occur. Therefore, although there is no certainty when the bear market will come and recover, those who HODL bitcoin in the long term will benefit greatly.

It's actually expected that bitcoin should have entered bear market by now. 2025 is quite long as it recovers, a year or two would be sufficient for its recover.
But is there a need for recovery while it's setting itself for a better price while where it came from was actually low years ago? We've been having corrections even during the bull run last year and for this three months of 2022.

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: Rimueng on March 03, 2022, 01:06:10 PM

The market is unpredictable and expects Bitcoin to enter a bear market and likely to recover until 2025, I still hesitate to rely on the four-year cycle model because going forward the pattern will not be the same in the past four years cycle. I'm sure that we won't have a bear market this year. I think the bitcoin price still has the potential to continue the bullish trend, but I realize that a big correction is likely to occur. Therefore, although there is no certainty when the bear market will come and recover, those who HODL bitcoin in the long term will benefit greatly.

But we rely on past history to make our prediction and that's what the OP is trying to drive at. It's a 4 year cycle, the last bull run was 2021+4 = 2025.

I get your point though, it's because the market is changing and adapting to different circumstances, like bitcoin being a part of the balance sheet of companies now. Or even countries owning it as a reserve asset like gold. So we will see if pattern will continue or will a new cycle will emerge as bitcoin's narrative is evolving now.

Rimueng

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The market is unpredictable and expects Bitcoin to enter a bear market and likely to recover until 2025, I still hesitate to rely on the four-year cycle model because going forward the pattern will not be the same in the past four years cycle. I'm sure that we won't have a bear market this year. I think the bitcoin price still has the potential to continue the bullish trend, but I realize that a big correction is likely to occur. Therefore, although there is no certainty when the bear market will come and recover, those who HODL bitcoin in the long term will benefit greatly.

Kelvinid

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Quote from: stepwilli on March 02, 2022, 02:32:46 PM

The funny thing is, when this topic was created it was around 37k or so, went as low as under 35k just a day later, so everyone thought it was possible that it wouldn't recover quickly enough. Maybe not as later as 2025, but not right away. Today, only like 10 days later, we are over 44k already. People are underestimating the potential of crypto and I do not know why. It has been like this forever, it just goes up and down and keeps doing that for a very long time.

I know that some people are not aware of the current situation, but this is how we could make a profit, if we are always aware of the fact that crypto will always go up eventually. Markets could crash and bitcoin could crash with them for a while, but that will always change in the end.

People will always love to talk negatively when seeing the market in a declining position. To hear this wasn't new for me/us but we have also to consider the situation that history never repeats itself. Of course, the dump and pumps come always but those people thinking that the market will it looks like 3 years ago where we are in totally bearish, that is somewhat impossible.

Indeed. We can't underestimate the market nor expect much but we can't erase the reality that the market price went ON and OFF. And those who can't adopt the nature of the market, that obviously could piss them off.

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Quote from: 24Kt on March 01, 2022, 07:05:26 PM

But quite hard to be sure about what will happen because the adoption is different from previous halving cycles.

I don't understand what you are trying to explain to me. We are discussing Bitcoin price changes or Bitcoin price cycles, there is nothing to do with Bitcoin adoption. Huh

Quote from: 24Kt on March 01, 2022, 07:05:26 PM

The bearish and bullish runs may have different price levels now as we are not expecting it to go below $10k anymore (just an example).

Indeed. The price level may be different but the scheme is probably the same as previously. We know Bitcoin halving is one of the biggest factors to trigger Bullrun. And it has been proven several times, please check again the correlation between BTC halving and Bullrun (bullish) and Bearish. I don't say that the lowest Bitcoin price in the next Bearish will be the same as in 2018-2019, I only stated the cycle to return as in the previous ones.

Quote from: 24Kt on March 01, 2022, 07:05:26 PM

No one can also assure about this recovery in 2025. Because this year alone, we may experience another ATH for all we know.

There is no certainty in crypto market. BTC can surprise us at any time. But Looks like it will be difficult to reach a new ATH this year. Don't forget about the cycle of Halving/Bullrun/Bearish, we seem in the early of Bearish season.

stepwilli

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The funny thing is, when this topic was created it was around 37k or so, went as low as under 35k just a day later, so everyone thought it was possible that it wouldn't recover quickly enough. Maybe not as later as 2025, but not right away. Today, only like 10 days later, we are over 44k already. People are underestimating the potential of crypto and I do not know why. It has been like this forever, it just goes up and down and keeps doing that for a very long time.

I know that some people are not aware of the current situation, but this is how we could make a profit, if we are always aware of the fact that crypto will always go up eventually. Markets could crash and bitcoin could crash with them for a while, but that will always change in the end.

Yaunfitda

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^^ I think when we did break out out of the $40k barrier, the price will be short term bullish and this is what we've seen so far, going as high as $45k although it didn't hold that much.

The good thing is that the volume speaks for itself, so definitely the next barrier to be broken is $45k and I think we can do it in the next 4 hour time frame.

STT

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Good breakout and build from negative trend. Positive so long as the chart keeps acting like this, this is an important build as we must hold the 43k area to confirm a break of range. Erratic daily moves dont count as much as the more progressive gains and leaving the prior range will be a positive move.
'Recover' is a false narrative to me, we in broader terms are consolidating which is important work; 100k wont appear without the structure and volume of prices put in below as we are doing now.

24Kt

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Quote from: kawetsriyanto on March 01, 2022, 07:00:25 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on February 21, 2022, 03:15:40 PM

If we’re following the four year cycles then it’s likely the price will suck in 2022. We’ll bottom in 2023 & then range until the halving in 2024. The price will slowly start to recover but the real bull run will start in 2025, we’ll get ath after ath until late 2025 or early 2026 before starting the next bear market. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes.

Very much agree with your explanation. If we are talking about the Bullrun cycle and BTC halving every 4 years, this year is the beginning of the bearish season. So, it is rather difficult to expect a market recovery this year or the next 2 years. When people expect crypto coins/tokens to achieve their ATHs again, on the contrary the prices are starting to drop gradually. It is not a proper time to expect Bullrun or uptrend anymore although a rebound/pump may happen at any time before the next dump. Yes, in theory, the right time to expect the recovery is in 2025.

But quite hard to be sure about what will happen because the adoption is different from previous halving cycles. The bearish and bullish runs may have different price levels now as we are not expecting it to go below $10k anymore (just an example). No one can also assure about this recovery in 2025. Because this year alone, we may experience another ATH for all we know. Because of what is happening in Russia and Ukraine, they may assist in btc adoption as people are looking for alternative ways to put their assets into safety without too much complications from their government. But such analysis is good so you can have a reference if people are really getting it right when it comes to speculations.

kawetsriyanto

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on February 21, 2022, 03:15:40 PM

If we’re following the four year cycles then it’s likely the price will suck in 2022. We’ll bottom in 2023 & then range until the halving in 2024. The price will slowly start to recover but the real bull run will start in 2025, we’ll get ath after ath until late 2025 or early 2026 before starting the next bear market. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes.

Very much agree with your explanation. If we are talking about the Bullrun cycle and BTC halving every 4 years, this year is the beginning of the bearish season. So, it is rather difficult to expect a market recovery this year or the next 2 years. When people expect crypto coins/tokens to achieve their ATHs again, on the contrary the prices are starting to drop gradually. It is not a proper time to expect Bullrun or uptrend anymore although a rebound/pump may happen at any time before the next dump. Yes, in theory, the right time to expect the recovery is in 2025.

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Quote from: ivankoh on March 01, 2022, 11:37:40 AM

Expecting bitcoin to return to ATH soon is tough, but in particular bitcoin has always had cycles of recovery and correction to aggregate demand and today bitcoin proved the best it can represent and create conformance. Bitcoin has made a very quick recovery today at $44k and is trying to build more momentum for consolidation on a breakout, any trend could be established again.
I guess 4 years is a long cycle for health and now is a consolidation period before a flip, I'm not sure it will be 2025 but we are building and representing more and more of it the future trend of the market

Quite honestly I'm surprised about the rapid recovery that we're seeing in the market, after all when we take into account all of the things that are happening around the world then it would have made sense for the price of bitcoin to remain low for a significant amount of time and despite all of that the price is showing a very strong recovery, which tell to us that there is still a chance that we could see a new all time high before the end of this year.

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Expecting bitcoin to return to ATH soon is tough, but in particular bitcoin has always had cycles of recovery and correction to aggregate demand and today bitcoin proved the best it can represent and create conformance. Bitcoin has made a very quick recovery today at $44k and is trying to build more momentum for consolidation on a breakout, any trend could be established again.
I guess 4 years is a long cycle for health and now is a consolidation period before a flip, I'm not sure it will be 2025 but we are building and representing more and more of it the future trend of the market

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Quote from: Mr.Scott on March 01, 2022, 06:00:53 AM

Quote from: Wong Gendheng on March 01, 2022, 03:36:21 AM

I'm sure the price will recover soon. The fact today bitcoin is up more than 14% and this is a good sign that bitcoin is recovering soon, especially today's daily transaction volume is almost 2x than yesterday so I'm very sure April will reach $70k or new ATH. The mistake of many investors is to buy when it is expensive so I recommend buying immediately.

Still looking great. Things bounced where they needed to. I'm lucky because I don't pay attention to the crypto twitter when they go completely panic mode. Regardless of all the rumors, this is why I have been confident and strong in the past. As for me, seeing bitcoin trading above 40k is more than enough to deal with a better life and I won't complain if it takes from down or higher. By the way, I'm holding and accumulating bitcoins.

People who have faith in the future of Bitcoin, definitely will not panic when they see the price of Bitcoin fall, they will remain patient holding
the Bitcoin they have and continue to collect Bitcoin. It is proven that now the price of Bitcoin has managed to rise above $40k, even the price of
Bitcoin is still rising and now Bitcoin is at a price of $44k. If the Bitcoin price manages to rise above the $45k price, there is a possibility that
the Bitcoin price will continue to touch the $50k price, so very lucky for people who managed to buy Bitcoin when the price was under $40k,
meaning they are already profiting now. With the rising price of Bitcoin, this gives the answer that Bitcoin to recover does not need to wait until 2025.

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Quote from: pieppiep on February 28, 2022, 10:11:16 AM

Quote from: poldanmig on February 26, 2022, 07:56:05 AM

Now is the right time for us to collect as much bitcoin as possible, because with the current price correction of course we can get bitcoin at a fairly cheap price, we all know that bitcoin investment tends to be more profitable for anyone who dares to hold on for a long time, so as you said it doesn't matter if we have to wait until 2025 to see the bitcoin price recover, if indeed later it can give us a big advantage.

I hope you can be careful when buying bitcoin as the price could fall back to $37k. The price now goes up to $38k, but who knows if the price will fall again the next day. Only analyzing market movements can help us in deciding so as I said before, it's okay if the price can spike again in 2025.

You know?
I was lucky enough to have ventured to buy some bitcoin at a price of $37K some time ago, and now I have made a little profit because bitcoin today has experienced an increase in price of $43K, maybe I try to wait for the price to return to $45K and take short-term profits Grin

.

Mr.Scott

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Quote from: Wong Gendheng on March 01, 2022, 03:36:21 AM

I'm sure the price will recover soon. The fact today bitcoin is up more than 14% and this is a good sign that bitcoin is recovering soon, especially today's daily transaction volume is almost 2x than yesterday so I'm very sure April will reach $70k or new ATH. The mistake of many investors is to buy when it is expensive so I recommend buying immediately.

Still looking great. Things bounced where they needed to. I'm lucky because I don't pay attention to the crypto twitter when they go completely panic mode. Regardless of all the rumors, this is why I have been confident and strong in the past. As for me, seeing bitcoin trading above 40k is more than enough to deal with a better life and I won't complain if it takes from down or higher. By the way, I'm holding and accumulating bitcoins.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Wong Gendheng on March 01, 2022, 03:36:21 AM

I'm sure the price will recover soon. The fact today bitcoin is up more than 14% and this is a good sign that bitcoin is recovering soon, especially today's daily transaction volume is almost 2x than yesterday so I'm very sure April will reach $70k or new ATH. The mistake of many investors is to buy when it is expensive so I recommend buying immediately.

Does it need to “recover”? Because to recover requires that it should be “dead” before recovery. But zoom out, the current price still, and remains higher than the last ATHs of the bull cycles during 2013, and 2017. What needs recovery are those many shitcoins that other plebs like us still HODL.

Wong Gendheng

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I'm sure the price will recover soon. The fact today bitcoin is up more than 14% and this is a good sign that bitcoin is recovering soon, especially today's daily transaction volume is almost 2x than yesterday so I'm very sure April will reach $70k or new ATH. The mistake of many investors is to buy when it is expensive so I recommend buying immediately.

darewaller

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As I am typing this, the price of bitcoin went over 43k+ which should be enough reason for people to realize it is not really that much of a big deal to be wrong about prices. I mean we are at 43k+ already and we are in a war and Russians will have to use crypto for a long time for every global need. I have to say that it is not really that much of a big deal as of right now, but it is certainly something that is decisively big, and the price should be going even higher.

Something like 50k+ could be reached within next week, and ATH could be achieved in somewhere around March if the situations persist on this same path. So, what OP is trying to convey may not remain true forever and bitcoin may recover to ATH and keep growing in coming days for sure.

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