Bitcoin long-term holders continuing to ‘soak up supply’ around $30K

justdimin

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Quote from: Mauser on May 31, 2022, 06:04:12 AM

I am really surprised about the strong buyers in the market right now. Every time the bitcoin price drops below 30,000 USD there are buyers in the market to push the price back up on the next day. For bitcoins I am getting price notification if the price changes more than 3% in a single day. For every price drop notification I get a notification that the price is rising again, it's really funny. What surprises me the most is that so many big investors said they would buy heavily around the 20,000 USD barrier, but now they must have switched to 30,000 USD. At the current climate I don't see the bitcoin price to drop any lower.

That is mainly because we are in a world where 30k is basically nothing for a bitcoin. If you found a brand new macbook pro for 100 bucks, wouldn't you buy it? I mean you would even be a bit confused why it is like that and assume there must be something wrong with it right?

This is why I believe that 30k is something like that, so all in all I have to say that this isn't a weird thing, bitcoin is not something that should worth 30k right now, or anything under, hence why people keep buying, 40k could be arguable, but 30k or lower is not a good price to be and we should all buy at that level and rich people know this and that is why they buy it.

Leviathan.007

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The thing is a long-term bitcoin holder won't get worried whenever the price falls down because they aim for the long term and looking at the chart and having short-term plans is not what they do. while other people do the opposite of this and they usually do panic sell. For any seller there is a buyer, so the long-term holders will start collecting more bitcoins and increasing the number of bitcoins they own, by doing this they will decrease the average buying price level for their long-term investments.

justdimin

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on June 01, 2022, 04:37:33 AM

If you are aware of the current macro-economic events, it's debatable. The Fed in the U.S. continues to fight inflation by lowering demand through quantitative tightening, raising interest rates, and contracting the balance sheet. In the E.U., it has been recently recorded that its inflation is also high at 8.1%, and would also need their own QT, own raising of interest rates, and contraction of the balance sheet to lower demand. There will not be a "soft landing", but a hard one, forcing a recession.

I believe that with the high interest rate, people do invest into savings accounts in the banks, which mean that they will get a better return, but anyone who knows economics will still stay away from that because they know that what you get from the bank savings account interest rate will usually be lower than the inflation rate, so finding something else that will make a lot more money will matter.

If you want to protect your money losing value against inflation then you need to invest accordingly. Hence, all that FED rates and EU repeating the action will mean nothing to the people who know how to invest, and those people will increase the bitcoin price.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Oasisman on May 31, 2022, 05:41:26 AM

Quote from: FMCPAY_GLOBAL on May 31, 2022, 02:13:36 AM

Despite being underwater on a portion of BTC positions, data shows long-term holders continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in its current range.

People may have learned not to miss the accumulation phase. The current Btc price is more than -50% from the last ATH, I guess that's almost 60% loss. So, this current region where Btc has been revolving might be the bottom of this bearish period.

Nevertheless, when Btc continue to dip, we are going to expect more accumulations. Bottom price wouldn't fall below $20k most probably, judging on how investors are reacting with the current Btc position.

If you are aware of the current macro-economic events, it's debatable. The Fed in the U.S. continues to fight inflation by lowering demand through quantitative tightening, raising interest rates, and contracting the balance sheet. In the E.U., it has been recently recorded that its inflation is also high at 8.1%, and would also need their own QT, own raising of interest rates, and contraction of the balance sheet to lower demand. There will not be a "soft landing", but a hard one, forcing a recession.

xSkylarx

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on May 31, 2022, 05:38:50 AM

I believe we might be in that phase when everyone else starts to think that Bitcoin has reached the bottom of the current cycle, and that it couldn't go down further anymore. BUT remember when Bitcoin was crabbing around $6,000 during 2018, and then it crashed down to $3,000 in November, 2018? Bitcoin $29,000 might be the new $6,000. Cool

So you're saying we can dive deeper 50% from $29,000 which is below $20k? Who's going to sell below that price? We've been above $20k for more than a year now so I assume many people bought above that price. It will take some whales or institution selling for the price to tank that deep. If price really goes that low, I'm pretty sure it won't last that long because it will be a big opportunity to small investors to buy some bitcoin for their future.

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: Zlantann on June 01, 2022, 02:11:09 AM

I have been privileged or fortunate to start investing in Bitcoin when the price was below $31,000.

Good for you. And currently, as the price march to $32k, you might see some good profits already.

Quote from: Zlantann on June 01, 2022, 02:11:09 AM

There have been so much analysis and speculation s by economist and cryptocurrency analysts but I am very confident that Bitcoin is the best investment for me. I am willing to take the risk and follow Bitcoin to the deep or the pump. Each time I open my wallet I see the red signs, but recently the green signs are more frequent. But the news of long-term holders buying more is good news because I believe it has the tendency of pushing up the price of Bitcoin.

I do hope that you don't just believed those speculators and economist, because there is no expert here. Everyone is free to throw some random numbers and that's it. Long term holders as using a lot of strategy to maximized the price that they are going to buy. So we might as well learn from them on how to accumulate, like buying at the dip and DCA.

hZti

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It's temporary. Everything will return to normal price

Question is what a normal BTC Price is, because it is for sure not the price of the ATH. In my opinion the average price of bitcoin would be around 500 USD, so lets not hope it returns there even if that would be a good buy opportunity.
Also lets not forget that bitcoin tends to flash crash from time to time.

Zlantann

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I have been privileged or fortunate to start investing in Bitcoin when the price was below $31,000. There have been so much analysis and speculation s by economist and cryptocurrency analysts but I am very confident that Bitcoin is the best investment for me. I am willing to take the risk and follow Bitcoin to the deep or the pump. Each time I open my wallet I see the red signs, but recently the green signs are more frequent. But the news of long-term holders buying more is good news because I believe it has the tendency of pushing up the price of Bitcoin.

buwaytress

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Quote from: bitmover on May 31, 2022, 04:46:33 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on May 31, 2022, 04:34:20 AM

I wonder if it's the same in the stock markets really. Big tech ones like Mr Musk's own is still down more than 50% from ATH (same as Bitcoin really) and if there are stubborn long-termer Bitcoiners soaking up all the sell orders, I suspect the same is happening elsewhere across the board with global markets. Forex, stocks, commodities. Just believers biting down hard and coping.

Many people wait years for times like this. Everything looks "cheap" imo. And there are good buying opportunities everywhere.

The whole S&P is down nearly 15% from ATH.

It is now different than in the pandemic. In march 2020 when the world was closed, the markets recovered very quickly.
Now there is FUD everywhere: World War, pandemia in China, long term inflation all over the globe....

This is the time to be brave, when we see blood and fear all over the place.

This is the time to buy good ETF, Bitcoin (maybe ETH if you like). I would not try some high-risk shitcoin now neither small caps.

Yeah, without really looking (guess Google on this device thinks I'm a guy with money to slosh around and buy stocks) I'm already seeing plenty of news on important figures re-upping on tech stocks down over 50% (didn't know til recently it's a thing to follow politicians and lobbyists buying stocks). I'd wager the very same guys are moving in on Bitcoin too.

They're probably all ready to lose even more if the market turns even further down (which I think it will) but they're firmly in the holder/stacker mentality with future timeframes of years.

As you said, no better indicator than massive FUD to tell you it's a buying opportunity.

Full disclosure: The last time I bought a shitcoin was in 2017, but I DID put $50 into a pure low-cap shitcoin this year, now less than $20 ha ha ha.

Don Pedro Dinero

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When I saw the title of the thread, for a moment I thought it was a news item from last year that someone had bumped.

Quote from: FMCPAY_GLOBAL on May 31, 2022, 02:13:36 AM

Despite being underwater on a portion of BTC positions, data shows long-term holders continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in its current range.

Long-term Bitcoin holders appear to be the main driving force behind the current price action, with some actively accumulating and others realizing losses at an average of -27%. Despite the selling witnessed by some in the long-term holder cohort, the total supply held by these wallets recently returned to its all-time high of 13.048 million BTC.

(Source: Cointelegraph)

I remember hearing that several times between October and December last year and then not quite being able to explain how, if there was less and less liquid supply, the price peaked in early November, and then started to fall from there. I suppose that when it started to fall it was because at least some of those people moved their bitcoins into liquid supply to sell them.

I mean, this does not guarantee anything either. It's normal to have people buying if we are at a low price for this cycle, but you never know if some of those people who are buying are going to sell in a month or two because of some future event that we don't know about.

pooya87

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Quote from: FMCPAY_GLOBAL on May 31, 2022, 02:13:36 AM

Long-term Bitcoin holders appear to be the main driving force behind the current price action,

It is obvious that smart money is always entering the market when we are in a dip and accumulates while everyone else is panicking and either sell or refuse to buy at a massive discount.

But there is no "price action" yet, bitcoin price has been going up and down in the same range for the past 23 days. When price goes to $25k it is not some doomsday dump to $0 and when it goes to $35k it is not some pump to the moon reaching $100k moment. It is just normal fluctuations during an accumulation phase before the jump which can't be predicted.

avikz

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Quote from: FMCPAY_GLOBAL on May 31, 2022, 02:13:36 AM

Despite being underwater on a portion of BTC positions, data shows long-term holders continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in its current range.

Isn't it the most sensible thing to do? We all are hearing since a long time - buy low and sell high. Now that the bitcoin price is seeing a strong resistance at 29k, why wouldn't anyone buy it if they have the money?

I personally am accumulating it. I can't be accumulating a whole lot because my pocket wouldn't support that. But I have started diverting at least 40% of my monthly savings to bitcoin.

Mauser

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I am really surprised about the strong buyers in the market right now. Every time the bitcoin price drops below 30,000 USD there are buyers in the market to push the price back up on the next day. For bitcoins I am getting price notification if the price changes more than 3% in a single day. For every price drop notification I get a notification that the price is rising again, it's really funny. What surprises me the most is that so many big investors said they would buy heavily around the 20,000 USD barrier, but now they must have switched to 30,000 USD. At the current climate I don't see the bitcoin price to drop any lower.

NotATether

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Quote from: FMCPAY_GLOBAL on May 31, 2022, 02:13:36 AM

Long-term Bitcoin holders appear to be the main driving force behind the current price action, with some actively accumulating and others realizing losses at an average of -27%. Despite the selling witnessed by some in the long-term holder cohort, the total supply held by these wallets recently returned to its all-time high of 13.048 million BTC.

This raises an interesting question. What is the maximum about of BTC these wallets can collect before their price increasing power diminishes? I believe probably when they buy almost the entire supply.

One would think that would happen when they own near the total minted supply. We're already at 13 million out of 18 million collected by these wallets, maybe they got to get their hands on 1 or 2 million more BTC to push us out of the water.

Oasisman

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Quote from: FMCPAY_GLOBAL on May 31, 2022, 02:13:36 AM

Despite being underwater on a portion of BTC positions, data shows long-term holders continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in its current range.

People may have learned not to miss the accumulation phase. The current Btc price is more than -50% from the last ATH, I guess that's almost 60% loss. So, this current region where Btc has been revolving might be the bottom of this bearish period.
Nevertheless, when Btc continue to dip, we are going to expect more accumulations. Bottom price wouldn't fall below $20k most probably, judging on how investors are reacting with the current Btc position.

Wind_FURY

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I believe we might be in that phase when everyone else starts to think that Bitcoin has reached the bottom of the current cycle, and that it couldn't go down further anymore. BUT remember when Bitcoin was crabbing around $6,000 during 2018, and then it crashed down to $3,000 in November, 2018? Bitcoin $29,000 might be the new $6,000. Cool

Quote from: Baofeng on May 31, 2022, 05:10:00 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on May 31, 2022, 04:34:20 AM

I wonder if it's the same in the stock markets really. Big tech ones like Mr Musk's own is still down more than 50% from ATH (same as Bitcoin really) and if there are stubborn long-termer Bitcoiners soaking up all the sell orders, I suspect the same is happening elsewhere across the board with global markets. Forex, stocks, commodities. Just believers biting down hard and coping.

Didn't mean to sound like a dampened blanket, just wondering if/when Bitcoin will shrug off the correlation this year.

I thought it has de-coupled a week ago, when bitcoin goes ~$30k, stocks soars. But this is just short lived though as both market finally have a good break out run.

But yeah, bitcoin long term holders will always take advantage and whenever they can, will build their wallets again with this cheap bitcoins from those panic sellers. And so let's see if we can get the numbers at least $32k at the end of the week.

But when the Federal Reserve turns off the tap, I believe the U.S. markets affect ALL markets around the globe, and it has always been that way as long as the U.S. is the global leader, and having the largest economy.

Baofeng

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 31, 2022, 04:34:20 AM

I wonder if it's the same in the stock markets really. Big tech ones like Mr Musk's own is still down more than 50% from ATH (same as Bitcoin really) and if there are stubborn long-termer Bitcoiners soaking up all the sell orders, I suspect the same is happening elsewhere across the board with global markets. Forex, stocks, commodities. Just believers biting down hard and coping.

Didn't mean to sound like a dampened blanket, just wondering if/when Bitcoin will shrug off the correlation this year.

I thought it has de-coupled a week ago, when bitcoin goes ~$30k, stocks soars. But this is just short lived though as both market finally have a good break out run.

But yeah, bitcoin long term holders will always take advantage and whenever they can, will build their wallets again with this cheap bitcoins from those panic sellers. And so let's see if we can get the numbers at least $32k at the end of the week.

bitmover

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 31, 2022, 04:34:20 AM

I wonder if it's the same in the stock markets really. Big tech ones like Mr Musk's own is still down more than 50% from ATH (same as Bitcoin really) and if there are stubborn long-termer Bitcoiners soaking up all the sell orders, I suspect the same is happening elsewhere across the board with global markets. Forex, stocks, commodities. Just believers biting down hard and coping.

Many people wait years for times like this. Everything looks "cheap" imo. And there are good buying opportunities everywhere.

The whole S&P is down nearly 15% from ATH.

It is now different than in the pandemic. In march 2020 when the world was closed, the markets recovered very quickly.
Now there is FUD everywhere: World War, pandemia in China, long term inflation all over the globe....

This is the time to be brave, when we see blood and fear all over the place.

This is the time to buy good ETF, Bitcoin (maybe ETH if you like). I would not try some high-risk shitcoin now neither small caps.

buwaytress

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I wonder if it's the same in the stock markets really. Big tech ones like Mr Musk's own is still down more than 50% from ATH (same as Bitcoin really) and if there are stubborn long-termer Bitcoiners soaking up all the sell orders, I suspect the same is happening elsewhere across the board with global markets. Forex, stocks, commodities. Just believers biting down hard and coping.

Didn't mean to sound like a dampened blanket, just wondering if/when Bitcoin will shrug off the correlation this year.

GreatArkansas

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When Bitcoin dropped below $30,000 a few days ago, I am for sure a lot of people started to buy on that level. A lot of people waited that time especially since last year we reach the all-time-high, and that is more than 50% drop and yeah, good to buy also for me.
I even bought some bitcoin when it started to drop below $30,000.

Topic: Bitcoin long-term holders continuing to ‘soak up supply’ around $30K (Read 282 times)