will facilitate the largest transfer of wealth in human history
Is this fun or what? And being right makes it even sweeter!
Topic: Bitcoin Magazine - Why Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started by Trace Mayer (Read 2820 times)
April 09, 2013, 01:13:53 PM
Is this fun or what? And being right makes it even sweeter!
April 08, 2013, 09:44:14 AM
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.
That's not the problematic part to imagine, the problem is imagining the energy needed to run the network.
$ price - $ estimated energy costs (per day)
100 - 0.2 million
1000 - 2 million
10,000 - 20 million
100,000 - 200 million
and at the magic price of 2,760,000 bitcoin uses the total electric power generated in the world. ($0.1 per kWh, 2.3 TW total world electric power usage)
At this point we are probably building bitcoin miners directly at the top of oil rigs.
Do you think that Ben and co. are printing money with no energy costs? I am pretty sure that Bitcoin is one of the most efficient currencies when it comes to energy costs to run the whole system.
Exacly.
I've said it before, in different words, but many different times:
Bitcoin has implemented the concept of sound money, and now this physically instantiated concept will facilitate the largest transfer of wealth in human history, which THEN (combined with other "advanced, futuristic" [read: available now, just really expensive tech -- an example of which being new methods of human resuscitation that make standard CPR look like caveman voodoo] technologies will spurn the new 0.01% into some new species which is decidedly not human.
All this is of course just speculation.
April 08, 2013, 09:41:24 AM
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.
That's not the problematic part to imagine, the problem is imagining the energy needed to run the network.
$ price - $ estimated energy costs (per day)
100 - 0.2 million
1000 - 2 million
10,000 - 20 million
100,000 - 200 million
and at the magic price of 2,760,000 bitcoin uses the total electric power generated in the world. ($0.1 per kWh, 2.3 TW total world electric power usage)
At this point we are probably building bitcoin miners directly at the top of oil rigs.
Perhaps you can do a cost per day for ALL gold and silver miners to operate? Oh an the operating cost to have the DOLLAR guarded in all banks, transported, printed, shipped etc etc etc
But what those costs have to do with price of bitcoin? At least by looking at the power costs, we get some sensible limits on bitcoin prices. That is what this forum totally lacks.
As for ridiculous, saying that bitcoin will go to 1,000,000 is indirectly the same as saying: "Bitcoin will grow until it uses third of world's electric power!"
the cost of energy is marginal, that is to say each additional unit costs more than the previous unit. And the dificulty of the proof of work algorythm can adjust down as well as up. What this means is that with each aditional unit of capitalization in the bitcoin market would increase the total energy consumption of the bitcoin network less than the previous unit of capitalization. You would have a curve that dropped off, a curve that looked very similar to the graph that shows the rate of release of new coins into the bitcoin economy.
April 08, 2013, 09:29:20 AM
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.
That's not the problematic part to imagine, the problem is imagining the energy needed to run the network.
$ price - $ estimated energy costs (per day)
100 - 0.2 million
1000 - 2 million
10,000 - 20 million
100,000 - 200 million
and at the magic price of 2,760,000 bitcoin uses the total electric power generated in the world. ($0.1 per kWh, 2.3 TW total world electric power usage)
At this point we are probably building bitcoin miners directly at the top of oil rigs.
Do you think that Ben and co. are printing money with no energy costs? I am pretty sure that Bitcoin is one of the most efficient currencies when it comes to energy costs to run the whole system.
April 08, 2013, 08:50:35 AM
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.
That's not the problematic part to imagine, the problem is imagining the energy needed to run the network.
$ price - $ estimated energy costs (per day)
100 - 0.2 million
1000 - 2 million
10,000 - 20 million
100,000 - 200 million
and at the magic price of 2,760,000 bitcoin uses the total electric power generated in the world. ($0.1 per kWh, 2.3 TW total world electric power usage)
At this point we are probably building bitcoin miners directly at the top of oil rigs.
Perhaps you can do a cost per day for ALL gold and silver miners to operate? Oh an the operating cost to have the DOLLAR guarded in all banks, transported, printed, shipped etc etc etc
But what those costs have to do with price of bitcoin? At least by looking at the power costs, we get some sensible limits on bitcoin prices. That is what this forum totally lacks.
As for ridiculous, saying that bitcoin will go to 1,000,000 is indirectly the same as saying: "Bitcoin will grow until it uses third of world's electric power!"
April 08, 2013, 08:48:13 AM
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.
That's not the problematic part to imagine, the problem is imagining the energy needed to run the network.
$ price - $ estimated energy costs (per day)
100 - 0.2 million
1000 - 2 million
10,000 - 20 million
100,000 - 200 million
and at the magic price of 2,760,000 bitcoin uses the total electric power generated in the world. ($0.1 per kWh, 2.3 TW total world electric power usage)
At this point we are probably building bitcoin miners directly at the top of oil rigs.
Of course they would cost so much to produce when their total value is on the same scale as the world's GDP(70 trillion dollars).
And it probably says something about the honesty of bitcoin as money.
April 08, 2013, 08:32:57 AM
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.
That's not the problematic part to imagine, the problem is imagining the energy needed to run the network.
$ price - $ estimated energy costs (per day)
100 - 0.2 million
1000 - 2 million
10,000 - 20 million
100,000 - 200 million
and at the magic price of 2,760,000 bitcoin uses the total electric power generated in the world. ($0.1 per kWh, 2.3 TW total world electric power usage)
At this point we are probably building bitcoin miners directly at the top of oil rigs.
Perhaps you can do a cost per day for ALL gold and silver miners to operate? Oh an the operating cost to have the DOLLAR guarded in all banks, transported, printed, shipped etc etc etc
THEN COME BACK AND COMPARE THE TWO NUMBERS AND SEE HOW RETARDED YOU LOOK.
April 08, 2013, 08:29:22 AM
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.
That's not the problematic part to imagine, the problem is imagining the energy needed to run the network.
$ price - $ estimated energy costs (per day)
100 - 0.2 million
1000 - 2 million
10,000 - 20 million
100,000 - 200 million
and at the magic price of 2,760,000 bitcoin uses the total electric power generated in the world. ($0.1 per kWh, 2.3 TW total world electric power usage)
At this point we are probably building bitcoin miners directly at the top of oil rigs.
April 08, 2013, 08:16:47 AM
One could imagine that Gox is actively selling to stem the price from melting up.
Why would they want to do that?
LOL well they only have so many coins. MTGOX =/= FED
April 08, 2013, 05:15:22 AM
One could imagine that Gox is actively selling to stem the price from melting up.
Why would they want to do that?
April 08, 2013, 05:09:52 AM
One could imagine that Gox is actively selling to stem the price from melting up. In specific cases, just mess up the system, declare lag or DDos and actively manage the price upwards bit by bit. Not implying or accusing anyone but it could have some truth in it.
April 08, 2013, 03:02:49 AM
Bitcoin price can't simply go up forever.
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.
April 08, 2013, 02:43:11 AM
Quote
There is only transactional and speculative demand. For transactional demand the price is irrelevant. So that simply leaves speculative demand. And since Bitcoin is a Giffen good that is produced only to be hoarded and not consumed therefore it has a paradoxical effect: As the bitcoin price rises it decreases float supply and increases demand.
He's forgetting about mining.
No he isn't. He's - correctly - ignoring it. It just confuses the issue. Mining is esoterica, these days - not for anyone just getting started.
Just because he's ignoring it, doesn't mean that it is not there. I'm talking about this part:
"As the bitcoin price rises it decreases float supply and increases demand."
This implies that the price can go up forever and ever. But that is not true. Bitcoin mining uses power that is proportional to the price (with a lag). This power must be paid in currencies other than BTC, but mining awards are in BTC. This will cause downward pressure on the price. This resolves his "paradox".
He says that bitcoin is a Giffen good. But he does not mention that total cost of running the network also rises proportional to the price. Perhaps he is now aware of this fact, because it comes with a lag, but it's there. Bitcoin price can't simply go up forever.
April 08, 2013, 01:58:42 AM
This run up wont stop before $3.xxx. Only small people think small 
April 08, 2013, 01:22:16 AM
I think Trace may be personally responsible for at least $5 of the current BTC price.
April 07, 2013, 11:27:36 PM
Good Job man!
April 07, 2013, 11:26:58 PM
Quote
There is only transactional and speculative demand. For transactional demand the price is irrelevant. So that simply leaves speculative demand. And since Bitcoin is a Giffen good that is produced only to be hoarded and not consumed therefore it has a paradoxical effect: As the bitcoin price rises it decreases float supply and increases demand.
He's forgetting about mining.
No he isn't. He's - correctly - ignoring it. It just confuses the issue. Mining is esoterica, these days - not for anyone just getting started.
April 07, 2013, 11:12:18 PM
Interesting...
April 07, 2013, 06:34:37 PM
Quote
There is only transactional and speculative demand. For transactional demand the price is irrelevant. So that simply leaves speculative demand. And since Bitcoin is a Giffen good that is produced only to be hoarded and not consumed therefore it has a paradoxical effect: As the bitcoin price rises it decreases float supply and increases demand.
He's forgetting about mining.
April 07, 2013, 06:12:43 PM
A nice read.
I'm satisfied when at least other people are optimistic.
I'm satisfied when at least other people are optimistic.
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