Topic: Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test - page 2. (Read 3969 times)

Hi there,
it's 796 Xchange

what is your twitter?

today's update: (GMT+8)

We see over drop bounces after long power temporarily disappeared. Upward resistance area is around 80$. From the 4-hour chart, long strength temporarily fails after continuous drop recently. A wave of bounce comes out after standing at the short term average price line. Subsequent correction should be 70$-80$. We may decide buy or sell after testing the long and short strength. We would advise short sell when approaching 85$ for short term.

Thanks.

yeah, we are going to post it on twitter.
thanks.

796, would you be open to start posting twitter updates?  It would be great to get these updates instantly to my phone.  If you are not willing to I may start doing so.

So it will fall again?

From Bitcoin trend chart, we will see that the price goes up slowly but down abruptly in earlier period while it’s been down steadily in the recent month. No matter what brings the circumstances, investors are under great pressure. There’s an obvious sign of speculative funds outflow. When it dropped to 72$ yesterday and bounces appeared, there should be uptrend resistance after correction at 80$. However, no rise shows when it’s supposed so and long strength can’t gather.

Hi everybody,


In the previous post I mentioned that there was no obvious big trading following yesterday’s slump. We can see the previous several bottom features from the chart, in which all accompanying with substantially increased volume and slump. Thus, we still need to observe to decide whether 72$ is the lows in the near future. Since there is no sign of much rise or arbitrage, I had transferred the last Bitcoins worth tens of thousands from MTGOX to BTTC and then sold them all this morning. (Time: GMT+8)


Thanks!

thanks for your support. much appreciated. 

 

thanks a lot!

Following.

I always learn something when I read these! Thank you for posting them

good info. cheers

Hi everybody,

today's update (GMT+8)

Bitcoin price has continue to slump in the recent few days. From the trend chart, although it touched 72$ yesterday, there’s no obvious big trading. Thus, we can’t be so sure that 72$ is the lows in these days. We may wait and see.

According to Bitcoin trend chart, the trend should be like this : it is hard to drop in a short term; there should be a period of slow rise which may get to $85-$87; then there will be another bottom process; after that, it will go upward; and then we can predict whether it’s fall in a relay or the beginning of a new wave of rise depending on the long and short strength. We can check the market trend and always remember: sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn't do so.

Thanks!

a $15 price drop

Bitcoin price outlook: (updated at 13:19pm, GMT+8)

After the whole morning’s sell into correction, short strength consumes itself to some extent and gets temporary support after double dip at 75 dollars. Single short term buying at near $75 may wait to sell at around $85. As for the present low 75.12 $ still needs to be looked into before we say it is the lowest level. The breakout below $75 is preferable for buy in batches. No much risk for short term. We don’t advise to cut positions when it is below $80.

Thanks!

Do you mean a $!5 price drop or a drop to $15/BTC

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

Bitcoin market outlook:

From daily chart, downtrend continues. For medium-term, buy orders could wait till it gets to around $75 after slump. For short term trend, $98 becomes the interim price. Now correction at low needs bounces and could look out for buy power. The possibility of continued downs should be watched out if correction stays at $93 below for a long time. Besides, risk event of USD withdrawal from MTGOX should be paid more attention.


From the 4-hour chart, the Bitcoin price trend should be uptrend and bounce. Short term resistance with $93, $95 and $98 upside. If the correction keeps at low area when it’s time to rally, and long power doesn’t show up, there will be more and more people losing their patience which will lead to slump.