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that is the whole reason why you buy now instead of waiting to hit some bottom that you have in mind. at least you buy something if not with all your money. and who is to say you aren't going to wait for a new bottom as soon as the bottom you have in mind now was reached?
for example back in 2015 i remember price was stuck at $220 for a long time and every time the bottom was tested it didn't break but people were saying the bottom is $100-$50,... and said you shouldn't buy then. you know what $200 was not the bottom, price fell to $150 which is a 25% drop but all those who were waiting for that bottom could not buy because it was only a short time (about an hour if i am not mistaken) before price jumping back up and starting the rise. so unless they left their money on exchanges for months they couldn't have bought the bottom.
and psychologically when you miss something like that you don't just buy back at $250, now you have a sense of being right so you wait for that price to be repeated so you end up being forced to buy at $400 instead.
(the funny part is that we are talking about making $19,850 profit per coin versus $19,800 profit per coin
)
Those are valid points and I agree completely.
I would just like to point out, however, that your scenario only checks out ($50 difference per coin) if the buyer was only going to buy a fixed number of Bitcoins anyway. If you were planning to spend a fixed amount of money, let's say $1000, on $150 per coin as opposed to $200 per coin, you'd have ~1.66 more Bitcoins, which is a whopping ~$32k difference.
I personally don't wait for the bottom because I do dollar cost averaging as I said, and I'm shitty at predictions in general, but I see the merits in trying to catch the bottom. A little difference can be massive down the line, so I can't fault the mentality even if it's essentially gambling.
