Bitcoin Mini bull run or short Squeeze (manipulation) ?

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Quote from: TimeTeller on January 23, 2023, 11:59:53 AM

And what is the reason why they will manipulate the market? I am more on the mini bull run on this market.
Manipulating this market requires a lot of money, even a small movement requires big amount of money.
And I don't think there's advantage of doing so if someone or group of whales decided to make a dent in the market.
It has long been known that manipulation in btc market is quite hard to do. Why not accept the fact that it is high time to experience such bullish period?
I am more on the natural increase of btc after few months of bearish period. People are getting good vibes around this market.

I'm just not sure why you don't know why whales are manipulating the markets with their bitcoin holdings and financial power after you've been here since 2015.

Whales can do whatever they want and create momentary panic by moving million of dollar of bitcoin from their wallets to exchange. What were the consequences? they buy more on the dips and sacrifice few million dollars to buy so FOMO is created before they sell anything else gradually without you even noticing.

I just don't want to say that every bullshit is process of whale manipulation, but they are there for the purpose of profit regardless of how much money they spend trying to get the market going in any direction.

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Quote from: Fullcoinese on January 22, 2023, 11:25:47 AM

Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

The pump that occurs is quite powerful. after all, if you want to manipulate as you say, it is clear that it will use quite a large amount of funds to manipulate Bitcoin prices.
we still don't know if this is a trap or if it will continue in the next pump. it is clear that now his condition is quite stable. and the situation is like when the price went from $17k and pumped to $20k, and in a short time, it rose to $23k.
some analysts say it won't last long as a correction is imminent. but we may see another pump taking it to the next level.

Powerful because it managed to climb up to $23k plus for a short period of time but not as powerful to break those harder areas that we haven't reached yet since last year. Bitcoin is decentralized and it was the largest crypto so manipulating it will be a pain in the ass therefore I don't think the recent increase is due to manipulations but there are certain positive news that pops up last time so that maybe the reason of this mini bull run that we are seeing now.

It is not also a trap but trap can be associated with whales manipulations but corrections could be felt a long the way so we need to watch out for this if our goal is either to short sell or to buy.

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Quote from: _BlackStar on January 23, 2023, 10:14:49 AM

Quote from: stadus on January 23, 2023, 03:57:36 AM

I've never seen there is manipulation happen to Bitcoin, the whales are too silent this time - I consider those pumps natural.
I don't really think manipulations can be effective in a decentralized coin like Bitcoin, It probably works for altcoins. Might some whales are trying to do that but I'm very certain that they will just fail.

Whales can't manipulate bitcoin, but they can manipulate its price and turn the market red or green.
You can also manipulate prices if you have big budget, but you also have to be sure that it won't prevent you from losing money.

The pump that occurred during January may or may not be considered natural, but actually $20K is price that seems more appropriate for bitcoin after hitting ATH of $69K in November 2021.

Quote from: stadus on January 23, 2023, 03:57:36 AM

We have to keep in mind that the price of Bitcoin will keep on moving up and down. Currently at $22,700, not that huge enough to think about bullish but at least, people have their chance to sell and earn a few bucks as a reward of waiting.

Selling now is fine as long as it's profitable, but I'd be inclined to wait and would hold it for a higher timeframe and price. This allows you to get more opportunities to enjoy bigger profits.

And what is the reason why they will manipulate the market? I am more on the mini bull run on this market.
Manipulating this market requires a lot of money, even a small movement requires big amount of money.
And I don't think there's advantage of doing so if someone or group of whales decided to make a dent in the market.
It has long been known that manipulation in btc market is quite hard to do. Why not accept the fact that it is high time to experience such bullish period?
I am more on the natural increase of btc after few months of bearish period. People are getting good vibes around this market.

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

When each and every analysis was bearish on the bitcoin and everyone was expecting bitcoin to dump to 12K-14K$, the bitcoin start pumping and reached 23K in few days time.

This is simply what happens when everyone is bearish. Personally I wouldn't say everyone was bearish, just the overwhelming majority.

Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

Also, when we look at the fundamentals, they are also all bearish with events like Luna Crash, FTX Crash, Stable coins fund, Gemini and other companies' bankruptcy.

These aren't fundamentals, these are just news events. Excuses we can point to in order to help us understand a Bitcoin bear market.

Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?

I don't remember any positive news back in April 2019 which marked the end of the bear market, but price went up regardless.

Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

I think it's simply because a Bitcoin bear market usually lasts approximately a year. The high was reached in November 2021 with the low in November 2022. There were many speculating that based on time the bear market was over and to me this is the reason that price has risen since the start of the year. Despite how bearish the price analysis looked, time-based analysis was always looking bullish.

I also think it's simply human psychology to want or need to have answers to events we don't understand, in this case Bitcoin's 50% increase in price. But often, there aren't simply answers, or otherwise the answer is staring us in the face we just don't want to accept them as they are too simplistic. Often we also want complex answers to relatively basic questions, when the answer itself can be quite simple.

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Quote from: stadus on January 23, 2023, 03:57:36 AM

I've never seen there is manipulation happen to Bitcoin, the whales are too silent this time - I consider those pumps natural.
I don't really think manipulations can be effective in a decentralized coin like Bitcoin, It probably works for altcoins. Might some whales are trying to do that but I'm very certain that they will just fail.

Whales can't manipulate bitcoin, but they can manipulate its price and turn the market red or green.
You can also manipulate prices if you have big budget, but you also have to be sure that it won't prevent you from losing money.

The pump that occurred during January may or may not be considered natural, but actually $20K is price that seems more appropriate for bitcoin after hitting ATH of $69K in November 2021.

Quote from: stadus on January 23, 2023, 03:57:36 AM

We have to keep in mind that the price of Bitcoin will keep on moving up and down. Currently at $22,700, not that huge enough to think about bullish but at least, people have their chance to sell and earn a few bucks as a reward of waiting.

Selling now is fine as long as it's profitable, but I'd be inclined to wait and would hold it for a higher timeframe and price. This allows you to get more opportunities to enjoy bigger profits.

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Quote from: stadus on January 23, 2023, 03:57:36 AM

Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

I've never seen there is manipulation happen to Bitcoin, the whales are too silent this time - I consider those pumps natural.
I don't really think manipulations can be effective in a decentralized coin like Bitcoin, It probably works for altcoins. Might some whales are trying to do that but I'm very certain that they will just fail.

We have to keep in mind that the price of Bitcoin will keep on moving up and down. Currently at $22,700, not that huge enough to think about bullish but at least, people have their chance to sell and earn a few bucks as a reward of waiting.

Bitcoin is decentralized, but bitcoin price is not decentralized, and with a market capitalization of just $400 billion, smaller than a tech business like Apple or Google, manipulation is easier than ever. It can be said that the bitcoin market is a manipulative market that does not follow any laws such as supply and demand. Maybe it won't be able to be manipulated when it gets bigger, but for now, it's just a shark's game.

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

I've never seen there is manipulation happen to Bitcoin, the whales are too silent this time - I consider those pumps natural.
I don't really think manipulations can be effective in a decentralized coin like Bitcoin, It probably works for altcoins. Might some whales are trying to do that but I'm very certain that they will just fail.

We have to keep in mind that the price of Bitcoin will keep on moving up and down. Currently at $22,700, not that huge enough to think about bullish but at least, people have their chance to sell and earn a few bucks as a reward of waiting.

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

When each and every analysis was bearish on the bitcoin and everyone was expecting bitcoin to dump to 12K-14K$, the bitcoin start pumping and reached 23K in few days time.

Also, when we look at the fundamentals, they are also all bearish with events like Luna Crash, FTX Crash, Stable coins fund, Gemini and other companies' bankruptcy.

Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

Neither, remember pre-FTX, this is the price were we are, so just make sense that once whales, speculators, retail investors and others in the market have settled down already and that they are no longer affected, then the price will have to bounce back again to previous price.

So it might look like a mini bull run or bear trap, but that conditions is not met right now.

Now, we if go touch $25k-$30k in short span of time, then that might be a different story. So let's see if we are going to go that price or will see another sideways.

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It looks like the mini bull run situation is over for a while because the price is starting to decline, although it doesn't drop too deep. But that suffices to mention that the market is currently correcting and either this correction will continue to bring the price down further or will only take the price higher and could reach $25k.

I can't still tell where the market is going because it doesn't seem like the price is moving too fast and seems to be slowing down. And this is where we have to be careful because there is a possibility that discharge will come again and that pumping can also occur.

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Quote from: dansus021 on January 22, 2023, 10:05:26 PM

what are you saying is all possible but I would describe this as a mini bull run too. if you are looking at the weekly candles you will notice that the price might be in the oversold area this might be a correction and squeeze out short traders.

apparently there is no much good news out there except chapter 11 and laid off of big tech sector we need wait and see in my opinion if bitcoin could handle stay above 20K for couple of week we safe

The recent upward move in Bitcoin price, despite only positive news being the recovery from the collapse of FTX, is not believed to be manipulation. It is hoped that Bitcoin will maintain its position above the 200-day moving average of around 19,600 for several weeks, as this could indicate a period of stability and increase the likelihood of breaking the next significant resistance level of 25,000. The monetary policy announcement on January 21st is a crucial event that will determine the future direction of the market, and we will have to wait & see what happens.

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Quote from: Falconer on January 22, 2023, 10:35:11 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on January 22, 2023, 02:51:52 AM

It is tough to say but it is clear that $16k was way below the intrinsic value of bitcoin whether you want to compute it based on the cost of mining which some people do or based on the historical price movements where $20k was the last bubble's peak we saw back in 2017 and price never goes below it. Not to mention with all the adoption we had price had to have gone up not go down. But when a lot of bitcoin is unloaded on a small market with thinned order books, the price tends to go below the intrinsic value very easily.

I agree that $15K is not worth it for bitcoin given the increasingly expensive mining fees. Bitcoin has never dipped and traded below last ATH (at 2017) and $20K and above should be decent value for it. But I can't really be sure what caused bitcoin to break the habit, and now I think it's good to expect bitcoin to retain $20K to its price.

Anything can happen, and habits can still be changed is not too surprising. Bitcoin is still a manipulated market, while players like us get smarter, the market needs to become more unpredictable as well. So I wouldn't be surprised if there are any major fluctuations in 2023.

If talking about the real value of bitcoin with what it can bring, then $ 100k is still not its true value, bitcoin deserves a much higher value like that. But since everything is still in development, being manipulated is unstoppable.

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

This is how I feel, quite frankly I was one of the people who expected the drop to continue and I did not expect that we would see a rally anytime soon so I am a bit surprised.

All indications and data were indicating that we did not finish the bearish market, but this rise occurred, perhaps there is manipulation by whales, or there may be some incomprehensible reasons.

In any case, the rise occurred, and we are now facing two possibilities: a negative one, if it breaks $20,200, which will lead to a correction, and a positive one, if it manages to surpass $23,300, which will continue the rise.

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what are you saying is all possible but I would describe this as a mini bull run too. if you are looking at the weekly candles you will notice that the price might be in the oversold area this might be a correction and squeeze out short traders.

apparently there is no much good news out there except chapter 11 and laid off of big tech sector we need wait and see in my opinion if bitcoin could handle stay above 20K for couple of week we safe

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

When each and every analysis was bearish on the bitcoin and everyone was expecting bitcoin to dump to 12K-14K$, the bitcoin start pumping and reached 23K in few days time.

Also, when we look at the fundamentals, they are also all bearish with events like Luna Crash, FTX Crash, Stable coins fund, Gemini and other companies' bankruptcy.

Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

Nobody knows what's going on in the market, and I hear a lot of mixed opinions. But if you ask about my thoughts, I believe this is a manipulation, price trap of the market, so I would be more careful at this point than feeling overly optimistic about an upcoming bullish sign. Nonetheless, I still think that Bitcoin will go up to 25K-30K in the near future, I won't sell my bitcoin, with this profit still not big enough for me to sell my bitcoin.

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The Luna crash is an old story. The FTX crash was already priced in. The price when it crashed had plummeted to around $16,000 just when it was about to climb back to $20,000 and beyond, so it was already priced in also. Stable coins fund is not a big deal. So is the bankruptcy of Genesis. The bankruptcy of Genesis and even other platforms that have not declared their bankruptcy yet could have already been priced in also when the fall of FTX was acknowledged to be huge enough that it will definitely be causing a domino effect.

By the way, it's Genesis that went bankrupt, not Gemini.

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

When each and every analysis was bearish on the bitcoin and everyone was expecting bitcoin to dump to 12K-14K$, the bitcoin start pumping and reached 23K in few days time.

Also, when we look at the fundamentals, they are also all bearish with events like Luna Crash, FTX Crash, Stable coins fund, Gemini and other companies' bankruptcy.

Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

The moves in crypto market are often contrary to what generally market participants expect. This is how this market is, and it always comes with surprises. However, the current mini rally in crypto has some fundamental reasons behind it, such as, falling inflation rate and weakening dollar index. Additionally, market was in oversold position since long time and technical rebound was overdue. The continuation of current rally will depend on, next interest rate increase decision of FOMC, the meeting is scheduled to be held on 31st January.

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Quote from: bittraffic on January 22, 2023, 10:50:47 AM

Can't help but think of manipulation still. Even the chart today is really weird when I see this pump couldn't sustain anymore that it has to be dumped right now or the plunge will be harder. Suddenly the market goes further up instead.

So what I can say is that if this is manipulated, it would really go below $15K. The futures traders are not going to take the risk of whether to go long or short, they are probably waiting where this market will go.

Whether the price will fall down or continues to bounce is upto the market. To me, it id good growth for users who have been worrying about the market in the bearish trend. At these kind of market situation it is good to make some money than looking upon the charts and getting into some sort of confusion.

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

When each and every analysis was bearish on the bitcoin and everyone was expecting bitcoin to dump to 12K-14K$, the bitcoin start pumping and reached 23K in few days time.

Also, when we look at the fundamentals, they are also all bearish with events like Luna Crash, FTX Crash, Stable coins fund, Gemini and other companies' bankruptcy.

Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

I don't think it's a simple manipulation, but there can be some simple theories regarding this. Since we didn't have any confirmed positive signals from the market we cannot expect to see the bear market is over yet in the other hand we didn't have any good and positive fundamental signals so expecting to see a bull run is completely wrong atlest with the current situation. But I think it's just a correction to higher levels and after end of this correction we can expect to see the price even reaching lower prices.

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

When each and every analysis was bearish on the bitcoin and everyone was expecting bitcoin to dump to 12K-14K$, the bitcoin start pumping and reached 23K in few days time.

Remember that saying that the majority is always wrong about the market? If it was different most people would be rich.
Analysts don't have a clue. They try to predict bitcoin's moves by looking at 2018 when the economy was different, bitcoin was different, we had no pandemic, no wars... The environment is different and you can't accurately predict what's going to happen.
All of them have their own agenda. Some will act bearish because they want the price to go down to buy cheaper. Some will act bullish because they want to pump the price so they can sell.

Quote

Also, when we look at the fundamentals, they are also all bearish with events like Luna Crash, FTX Crash, Stable coins fund, Gemini and other companies' bankruptcy.

No. It's you that are looking at this with a bearish bias.
Luna did not have anything to do with bitcoin. It was a shitcoin scam and we're better off without it. It was never a bitcoin fundamental!

Quote

Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?

Again you're showing bearish bias. Bitcoin doesn't need good news to go up, just as it doesn't need bad news to go down. When we went from the ATH back to 50k there was no bearish news.

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Quote from: virasog on January 22, 2023, 12:47:47 AM

When each and every analysis was bearish on the bitcoin and everyone was expecting bitcoin to dump to 12K-14K$, the bitcoin start pumping and reached 23K in few days time.

Also, when we look at the fundamentals, they are also all bearish with events like Luna Crash, FTX Crash, Stable coins fund, Gemini and other companies' bankruptcy.

Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?

In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?

Everything seemed too obvious, all the negativity implied further movement of the price of bitcoin down, and you are right there are no positive news, all, on the contrary, mostly negative news.

This is very similar to manipulative growth. I expected local growth, but I expected that it would be gradual, but in this case everything indicates that it was just a manipulation. This growth led to great liquidations, to large losses for traders.

But we also often hear that the market drives contrary to the expectations of the majority, and since most were waiting for a further fall, the market played against them.

Topic: Bitcoin Mini bull run or short Squeeze (manipulation) ? (Read 379 times)