Bitcoin number of transactions all time high?? BEAR MARKET IS GONE!

Herbert2020

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Quote from: pixie85 on March 16, 2019, 04:28:15 PM

Number of transactions is not a good price or market indicator because it's not linked directly to the market. A transaction spam can make it look like the number is growing but it's not. Even if it was na natural growth it has nothing to do with trading volume and growth in volume is what we are waiting for not the number of transactions or google trends.

number of transactions may not be a very good indicator without fault but it is showing a lot if you truly start analyzing things on the network. for example an increased in number of on-chain transactions alongside a volume increase on exchanges or off exchanges like for OTC trading is showing an increased interest of the investors and if it is accompanied by a price rise it can show the beginning of a rally.

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Quote from: Thanasis on March 15, 2019, 08:42:23 AM

All I can see is that only about 5000 unconfirmed bitcoin transaction for now. https://www.blockchain.com/btc/unconfirmed-transactions

But more number of transactions coming from the traders who keep doing multiple trades to make money from it which is not real adoption.

Right and it doesn't really have any positive effect on the price anyway. Though i think at the current state we're neither in the bear or bull market anymore. This sideway movement is better for slow growth, not the kind that happened last 2017 and not the kind of drop that happened last year as well.

pixie85

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Number of transactions is not a good price or market indicator because it's not linked directly to the market. A transaction spam can make it look like the number is growing but it's not. Even if it was na natural growth it has nothing to do with trading volume and growth in volume is what we are waiting for not the number of transactions or google trends.

Kiweikoo

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Quote from: TeslaWatt.com on March 09, 2019, 04:17:34 PM

Looks like we are out of bear market!

Please check number of transactions for the Bitcoin. Very close to all time high.
If this is not proof of adoption for some people I don't know what adoption should be like.

https://twitter.com/vradovic/status/1104489493229264896

I don't think that the all time high in the numbers of bitcoin transaction show that the bear market is over, but actually shows that there is a massive adoption in the use of bitcoin not just as a store of value anymore, but due to the introduction of segwit and low transaction fees, bitcoin are now used also for microtransaction which include the payment for coffee from a coffee store.

Though I agree with you that the bearish market is over and in the next few weeks, we are going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin.

Thanasis

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All I can see is that only about 5000 unconfirmed bitcoin transaction for now. https://www.blockchain.com/btc/unconfirmed-transactions

But more number of transactions coming from the traders who keep doing multiple trades to make money from it which is not real adoption.

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on March 14, 2019, 07:14:01 AM

the growth is not just the number of transactions that bitcoin has. the real growth is all the real adoption that is happening all around the world.

number of transaction cant exactly tell if bitcoin is growing or not . what if the transaction are only made up of small amounts ? same as adoption . we can easily say that the adoption is growing but did the price also grow ? no . people only recognize bitcoin but they dont buy and hold a bitcoin .

bear market is not gone and wont be gone , no matter how the adoption rate or the number of transaction increases because the bear market is already part of the crypto cycle .

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Quote from: upsidedown75 on March 14, 2019, 03:51:09 PM

Quote from: creeps on March 12, 2019, 01:27:27 AM

Quote from: Pumared on March 11, 2019, 03:13:47 PM

Transactions is not an accountant for adoption, I believe neither the number of addresses. To know if there is an adoption, I would count the number of stores that accept crypts as payment. That would say, basically, that people are interested in both customers and stores.

The transactions can be done by the whales, so technically the volume can also be manipulated. I agree that a bullish trend will start to adoption and if we hear many businesses accept bitcoin then expect the price to pump. Well, we already touched the bottom, and now we are resting into middle level and preparing for another up trend. Actually, its hard to know if the transactions is mainly because of investors or manipulators.

Even though many businesses start accepting BTC as medium of payment, I don’t see it still pushing the price high to bull except fiat is completely scrapped because they are not accepting it to store it.

Once a merchant receives the BTC, there is tendency that the merchant will end up changing at least 80% of it back to fiat to be stored in normal traditional market and once a substantial amount of BTC is pulled from the market, it will generally affect the price increase even though I understand that mining will increase. This coin will eventually get stable to fulfill its purpose of creation soon.

But, since the trade generally begins to see that people are wanting to use Bitcoin, the tendency is that the purchase of Bitcoin increases. In the matter of the merchant it occurs that he needs only one person who accepts BTC as payment method so that he does not need to use fiat, a supplier for example. If several people accept BTC then good part of what they would use with fiat it could use BTC, but as we do not have this great acceptance the output is a hybrid Fiat / Btc

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Quote from: creeps on March 12, 2019, 01:27:27 AM

Quote from: Pumared on March 11, 2019, 03:13:47 PM

Transactions is not an accountant for adoption, I believe neither the number of addresses. To know if there is an adoption, I would count the number of stores that accept crypts as payment. That would say, basically, that people are interested in both customers and stores.

The transactions can be done by the whales, so technically the volume can also be manipulated. I agree that a bullish trend will start to adoption and if we hear many businesses accept bitcoin then expect the price to pump. Well, we already touched the bottom, and now we are resting into middle level and preparing for another up trend. Actually, its hard to know if the transactions is mainly because of investors or manipulators.

Even though many businesses start accepting BTC as medium of payment, I don’t see it still pushing the price high to bull except fiat is completely scrapped because they are not accepting it to store it.

Once a merchant receives the BTC, there is tendency that the merchant will end up changing at least 80% of it back to fiat to be stored in normal traditional market and once a substantial amount of BTC is pulled from the market, it will generally affect the price increase even though I understand that mining will increase. This coin will eventually get stable to fulfill its purpose of creation soon.

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the growth is not just the number of transactions that bitcoin has. the real growth is all the real adoption that is happening all around the world. for example if you take a look at all the shops that are now accepting bitcoin compared to a year ago, or if you look at the number of new businesses that started on top of bitcoin you can see the real growth there. and that is what matters most.

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Another important piece of information among all of this is that the transaction fee dropped as well. Now think about it when the transactions were at all time high during December 2017 there were a lot of people spending insane amount of money just to get their money sent.

I have literally seen people send 700 dollars to my account with 33 dollars transaction fee, that was the highest I have seen and that was legit because otherwise it would have taken so long to reach to me. Now in today's world we are almost at the same place yet people spend like 1-2 dollars at most for the same transaction which is amazing considering the high fee was one of the reason why we dropped.

We couldn't sustain the 20 thousand dollar times because people started to pay higher fee's than banks and that is literally against why bitcoin was created, now that we are back on track I think its not the reason why we will go back to 20 thousand dollars but at least its a reason why we will not drop from 20 thousand dollars next time around. Could be a different reason to drop but won't be fee's.

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Hopefully this will remain constant in the next coming days, and the information given here will continue to create more opportunities. The positive side of story behind bear market was gone, cannot be a reliable statement which gave us confidence of selling our asset. We should still be careful of handling our emotions, as well as having patience towards random bear market spikes. Literally, previous years that's expected increase spikes but unfortunately it's a reverse scenario looking unto btc's spikes was a slight downfall of price.

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Quote from: 1Referee on March 13, 2019, 09:33:02 AM

Quote from: exstasie on March 11, 2019, 05:28:16 PM

Is that verifiable? Veriblock seems very obscure and I don't see any evidence presented showing they were accounting for "20-30% of BTC transactions." The only evidence CoinMetrics shows is transaction volumes dropped when their testnet was supposedly taken offline. I'll have you know I took a shit at the same time and my flush of the the toilet is what caused the drop in volume. There's just as much evidence supporting that theory.

Nope, just basic event -> date linking that people here tend to do.

Actually, in this case, it's pretty simple to track them
Veriblock uses specific transactions (OP_RETURN) on the chain to insert data.

And here is how many of those appeared lately.
https://opreturn.org/op-return-per-month/

1Referee

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Quote from: exstasie on March 11, 2019, 05:28:16 PM

Is that verifiable? Veriblock seems very obscure and I don't see any evidence presented showing they were accounting for "20-30% of BTC transactions." The only evidence CoinMetrics shows is transaction volumes dropped when their testnet was supposedly taken offline. I'll have you know I took a shit at the same time and my flush of the the toilet is what caused the drop in volume. There's just as much evidence supporting that theory.

Nope, just basic event -> date linking that people here tend to do.

Every coin goes through these sort of sudden tx dumps that no one can explain. Ethereum had like 40-50% corrections in transaction volume more than once and no one gave a damn. Bitcoin on the other hand as big dog is what everyone focuses on as metric. It's understandable, but quite irrelevant.

The good thing here is that if there is organic growth, we'll see it increase the transaction count again. If not, we'll know it too. For now I'm more happy about the lower fees.

Pumared

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Quote from: creeps on March 12, 2019, 01:27:27 AM

Quote from: Pumared on March 11, 2019, 03:13:47 PM

Transactions is not an accountant for adoption, I believe neither the number of addresses. To know if there is an adoption, I would count the number of stores that accept crypts as payment. That would say, basically, that people are interested in both customers and stores.

The transactions can be done by the whales, so technically the volume can also be manipulated. I agree that a bullish trend will start to adoption and if we hear many businesses accept bitcoin then expect the price to pump. Well, we already touched the bottom, and now we are resting into middle level and preparing for another up trend. Actually, its hard to know if the transactions is mainly because of investors or manipulators.

No I think we're on a '' break, '' I believe more in a fair value for Bitcoin. No hyper, or anything, just the right price.

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I agree that all time high transactions are not a sign of adoption at all but it is definitely a sign of we are at least doing something positive.

It is important to keep our heads up during bad times and if a good positive news comes like this one for example that shows we have as much transactions as the all time high price times than we can't just say "its not enough" or "it doesn't mean adoption" or anything pessimistic like that.

That pessimistic approach is why we are here and as long as we take all the good news at face value and be happy about it than we can find our way towards going higher eventually. Any small tiny good news is still good news and maybe it doesn't mean we are going to be a million dollars tomorrow but as long as there are no bad news even no good news is fine.

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Quote from: stompix on March 11, 2019, 10:00:08 AM

Quote from: DooMAD on March 11, 2019, 06:41:32 AM

Conversely, not every transaction is an actual transfer of value from one person to another. Sometimes users are just moving funds from cold storage to a hot-wallet or vice-versa. Some transactions are merely for other blockchains, altcoins and certain services to leverage Bitcoin's security for their own means. Transactions like this are not indicative of any kind of economic benefit to Bitcoin.

And sometimes even a normal payment that should theoretically be one tx is taking 3 or 4.
Yesterday I bought something from a store, my funds moved to the payment address, in the next block to another, in the 3rd a batch transactions with two more inputs, and again another batched transaction with 5 this time, and then the entire sum moved again to an address where they currently wait.

Exactly. The rudimentary impression people seem to have is that 1 tx equals one transfer of value from person A to person B, but this is simply not the case in many situations. It's not accurate. Taking that inaccuracy and then using it to predict market movements simply isn't viable. You've got a better chance of using transaction volume to predict tomorrow's weather.

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Quote from: TeslaWatt.com on March 09, 2019, 04:17:34 PM

Looks like we are out of bear market!

Please check number of transactions for the Bitcoin. Very close to all time high.
If this is not proof of adoption for some people I don't know what adoption should be like.

https://twitter.com/vradovic/status/1104489493229264896

This is really proof of adoption and it means the bearish market is almost over. For those waiting to buy bitcoin below three thousand dollars, you might wait till the next bearish trend again which may never come.

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Quote from: Pumared on March 11, 2019, 03:13:47 PM

Transactions is not an accountant for adoption, I believe neither the number of addresses. To know if there is an adoption, I would count the number of stores that accept crypts as payment. That would say, basically, that people are interested in both customers and stores.

The transactions can be done by the whales, so technically the volume can also be manipulated. I agree that a bullish trend will start to adoption and if we hear many businesses accept bitcoin then expect the price to pump. Well, we already touched the bottom, and now we are resting into middle level and preparing for another up trend. Actually, its hard to know if the transactions is mainly because of investors or manipulators.

Pumared

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Quote from: Twinkledoe on March 11, 2019, 05:32:44 PM

Quote from: Pumared on March 11, 2019, 03:13:47 PM

Transactions is not an accountant for adoption, I believe neither the number of addresses. To know if there is an adoption, I would count the number of stores that accept crypts as payment. That would say, basically, that people are interested in both customers and stores.

I am more inclined with your concept of adoption as the number of transactions per day doesn't mean that many people are using it for their daily living. For all we know, most of them are whales doing their back and forth trading. More merchants, shops, stores, or whatever you call it are using crypto as means of payment, then for me, that is the real crypto adoption.

Yes, moreover, transactions are spammed with 1 or 2 satoshis at all times. And, of course, this is not adoption.

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Quote from: Koadharber on March 11, 2019, 07:02:26 AM

Quote from: TeslaWatt.com on March 09, 2019, 04:17:34 PM

Looks like we are out of bear market!

Please check number of transactions for the Bitcoin. Very close to all time high.
If this is not proof of adoption for some people I don't know what adoption should be like.

https://twitter.com/vradovic/status/1104489493229264896

Even we see that bitcoin transaction is very close to all time high we cannot say that we already survive in this long bear market,a high transaction of bitcoin this year is due to many holder withdraw their tokens or they transfer it into the other exchange that's why we cannot call it that we already escape in the Bear Market.

I'm not so sure this is correct, as if this were the cause, the daily volume would be rising in proportion to the TXs per day which doesn't seem like this is the case. I'm sure a small percentage is due to people dumping, but one thing you have to keep in mind is that most exchanges are using batching now. So even if people where sending coins from exchange to exchange to dump, this would have a very small impact on the daily tx count due to batching.

Daily TX/day increasing is a very bullish sign, this is what initially caused me to buy more bitcoin during 2015. TX per day was consistently rising, and now it appears to be recovering from the collapse in tx count from the 2017 bubble. I think it would be very wise to keep an eye on this metric. I have been doing this since 2015 and it has yet to lead me wrong... Now is the time to be accumulating Wink

Topic: Bitcoin number of transactions all time high?? BEAR MARKET IS GONE! (Read 615 times)